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為何我們的Skype投資大獲成功?

為何我們的Skype投資大獲成功?

Ben Horowitz 2011-05-13
Skype的一位董事回顧過(guò)去兩年,并分析為何今日微軟愿斥資85億美元收購(gòu)Skype。

????2009年年中我們創(chuàng)立Andreessen Horowitz后不久,就和Silver Lake Partners、Canada Pension Plan Investment Board的合作伙伴一起,以略高于20億美元的價(jià)格從eBay手中購(gòu)入了Skype多數(shù)股股權(quán)。這項(xiàng)投資給我們帶來(lái)了極大的爭(zhēng)議。馬克和我作為天使投資者,一宗交易即投資了我們3億美元新基金中的5,000萬(wàn)美元,這讓很多人感到意外。雖然符合我們“投資不分階段”的策略,但這的確是基金成立初期很大的一筆交易。讓事情更熱鬧的是其他投資者和記者也普遍批評(píng)這次收購(gòu)?!都~約時(shí)報(bào)》(New York Times)的喬?諾塞拉就寫(xiě)道:

????“本周我遇到的很多華爾街人士及眾多電信專(zhuān)家都對(duì)Skype的售價(jià)感到震驚,這不僅僅是因?yàn)槲覀兲幱诮?jīng)濟(jì)衰退之中?!?/p>

????有關(guān)爭(zhēng)議日前終于結(jié)束了,微軟(Microsoft)宣布以85億美元收購(gòu)Skype——距離我們從eBay手中購(gòu)入僅18個(gè)月。

再看當(dāng)年

????讓我們重新審視最初的決定以及為何投資大獲成功。當(dāng)時(shí)人們對(duì)我們的批評(píng)集中于兩點(diǎn):

????1. Ebay可能沒(méi)有Skype的相關(guān)知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)。當(dāng)時(shí),Skype創(chuàng)始人尼可拉斯?曾斯特羅姆和賈納斯?弗里斯對(duì)Skype提起了知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)訴訟。很多人猜測(cè)這兩位創(chuàng)始人會(huì)通過(guò)訴訟讓Skype關(guān)門(mén)大吉,投資者將一無(wú)所有。這使得Skype理論上缺乏可買(mǎi)性。正如諾塞拉所寫(xiě):

????“因此,Skype交易令人不解的地方在于:為何成功競(jìng)購(gòu)者愿意為一家可能因訴訟而關(guān)門(mén)大吉的公司支付如此高的價(jià)格?一種可能是他們有鋼鐵般的神經(jīng),另一種可能則是他們知道一些不為外人所知的東西?!?/p>

????2. 技術(shù)變遷可能令Skype逐漸失寵。雖然Skype贏得了最初的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)電話(huà)之戰(zhàn),但他們依賴(lài)的是傳統(tǒng)的、龐大的臺(tái)式電腦用戶(hù)群。從技術(shù)角度,當(dāng)時(shí)不可能推出高質(zhì)量的客戶(hù)端或手機(jī)端產(chǎn)品,但這種情況不會(huì)持續(xù)。很多觀察人士堅(jiān)信隨著全球不可避免地轉(zhuǎn)向客戶(hù)端和手機(jī)端產(chǎn)品,Skype將被遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落在后面。

????對(duì)于像Skype這樣復(fù)雜的公司,投資者會(huì)基于同一個(gè)事實(shí)得出不同的結(jié)論。就此項(xiàng)收購(gòu)而言,我們獲得的數(shù)據(jù)和其他人都一樣,但我們對(duì)Skype創(chuàng)始人及雇員的評(píng)價(jià)要遠(yuǎn)高于懷疑論者和否定者。我們堅(jiān)信我們能與創(chuàng)始人合作,而非對(duì)立。而且,我們相信Skype令人贊嘆的工程師團(tuán)隊(duì)在開(kāi)創(chuàng)了Skype服務(wù)、深具原創(chuàng)精神的東歐軟件奇才的帶領(lǐng)下,能與任何人競(jìng)爭(zhēng)并獲勝。

????特別是,我們當(dāng)時(shí)相信,作為當(dāng)代兩位杰出的科技創(chuàng)業(yè)者,尼可拉斯和賈納斯希望看到Skype大獲成功,并會(huì)盡其所能實(shí)現(xiàn)這一點(diǎn)。因此,我們并不認(rèn)為其他投資者擔(dān)心的危機(jī)情境——即創(chuàng)始人將通過(guò)訴訟讓公司關(guān)門(mén)大吉——具有現(xiàn)實(shí)可能性。根據(jù)創(chuàng)始人的動(dòng)機(jī),我們感覺(jué)得快速了結(jié)知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)訴訟。雙方都希望致力于提升Skype的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,不能浪費(fèi)時(shí)間為知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)所有權(quán)爭(zhēng)吵不休。

????在這一點(diǎn)上我們做得非常正確。在快速了結(jié)訴訟案后,兩位創(chuàng)始人旺盛的精力、精辟的洞見(jiàn)和杰出的知識(shí)才能為公司貢獻(xiàn)頗多。而且,我們的確需要他們,因?yàn)楹芸煳覀兙兔媾R了來(lái)自谷歌(Google)和蘋(píng)果(Apple)的全面正面挑戰(zhàn)。

當(dāng)巨頭發(fā)起挑戰(zhàn)

????谷歌直接發(fā)起挑戰(zhàn):提供一款免費(fèi)產(chǎn)品,與Skype的美國(guó)付費(fèi)產(chǎn)品競(jìng)爭(zhēng);提供一款大幅打折的產(chǎn)品,與Skype的國(guó)際產(chǎn)品競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。隨后,谷歌向其龐大的Gmail用戶(hù)群大力推廣這些廉價(jià)產(chǎn)品,迫使每個(gè)Gmail用戶(hù)在進(jìn)入郵箱前都要觀看谷歌的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)電話(huà)廣告。這些努力的結(jié)果如何?自從谷歌推出這些新產(chǎn)品以來(lái),Skype的新用戶(hù)數(shù)量和用量呈現(xiàn)加速增長(zhǎng),現(xiàn)已達(dá)到:

????? *每日新注冊(cè)用戶(hù) 500,000

????? *1.70億連接用戶(hù)

????? *Skype平臺(tái)上同時(shí)在線(xiàn)交流的用戶(hù)數(shù)達(dá)到3000萬(wàn)

????? *2010年語(yǔ)音和視頻通話(huà)時(shí)間達(dá)到2,090億分鐘

????在手機(jī)領(lǐng)域,蘋(píng)果在iPhone中內(nèi)嵌了視頻通話(huà)功能,使其Facetime成為了iPhone用戶(hù)的默認(rèn)應(yīng)用。這對(duì)iPhone手機(jī)上的Skype使用有怎樣的影響?自從蘋(píng)果發(fā)布Facetime 以來(lái),已有5,000萬(wàn)用戶(hù)下載了Skype的iPhone應(yīng)用軟件。

????回顧來(lái)看,人們很容易低估Skype工程師團(tuán)隊(duì)的質(zhì)量以及Skype的網(wǎng)絡(luò)效應(yīng)力量。當(dāng)我們從eBay手中買(mǎi)下該公司時(shí),很多人認(rèn)為就像很多被收購(gòu)的科技公司一樣,Skype的技術(shù)天才也會(huì)流失。我們通過(guò)研究發(fā)現(xiàn),Skype有一群深具使命感的核心工程師。在公司被eBay收購(gòu)后,他們留了下來(lái),全心全意希望將Skype打造成未來(lái)的通信公司。過(guò)去十年,這個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)不斷推出突破性的技術(shù),從極具彈性、可伸縮的對(duì)等網(wǎng)絡(luò),到通過(guò)更優(yōu)的編解碼實(shí)現(xiàn)音質(zhì)的大幅提高。在這個(gè)過(guò)程中,Skype在大多數(shù)重要領(lǐng)域的創(chuàng)新技術(shù)都超越了競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。再加之以其強(qiáng)大的網(wǎng)絡(luò)效應(yīng)(視頻通話(huà)服務(wù)如果沒(méi)人用,能有多少價(jià)值呢?),Skype成為了一個(gè)令人生畏的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。

明智之舉,微軟

????今天,我要向一個(gè)老對(duì)手——微軟脫帽致意。通過(guò)收購(gòu)Skype,微軟在移動(dòng)市場(chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力大為提升,并成為互聯(lián)網(wǎng)語(yǔ)音和視頻通信市場(chǎng)的顯著領(lǐng)先者。更重要的是,微軟獲得了一個(gè)由杰出的托尼?貝特斯率領(lǐng)、可與任何人競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的團(tuán)隊(duì)。

????本文作者Ben Horowitz是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本公司Andreessen Horowitz的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人及一般合伙人。該公司旨在通過(guò)天使投資,滿(mǎn)足當(dāng)今科技型創(chuàng)業(yè)者對(duì)大筆融資的需求。目前,Ben還在Okta、Nicira、Proferi和Skype的董事會(huì)任職。?

????Shortly after we started Andreessen Horowitz in mid-2009, we, along with our partners at Silver Lake Partners and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, bought majority ownership of Skype from eBay for slightly more than $2 billion. The investment generated a tremendous amount of controversy for us. Marc and I were known as angel investors, so investing $50 million of our new $300 million fund in one deal surprised people. While consistent with our stage-agnostic strategy, it was a very big deal very early on in the fund. To make matters more exciting, other investors and writers broadly criticized the deal. Joe Nocera of the New York Times wrote:

????"Many people on Wall Street—and a number of telecommunications experts I spoke to this week—were stunned by the price Skype sold for, and not just because we're in the middle of a recession."

????That controversy ended this morning when Microsoft announced that it was buying Skype for $8.5 billion -- 18 months after we bought it from eBay.

What it looked like back then

????Let's look back at the original decision and see why it turned out well. At the time, people criticized us for two primary reasons:

????1. Ebay might not have owned Skype's underlying intellectual property. Skype's founders, Niklas Zennstrom and Janus Friis, held an IP claim against Skype. Many speculated that the founders would use their claim to shut down Skype and leave investors with nothing. This made the company theoretically impossible to buy. As Nocera wrote:

????"And so, the mystery of the Skype deal: why were the winning bidders willing to pay so a high price for a company whose very existence could be threatened by this lawsuit? One possibility is that they have nerves of steel. The other is that they know something nobody else does."

????2. The shifting technology landscape would tilt the playing field away from Skype. While Skype won the original Internet telephony wars, they did so with a classic fat desktop client. From a technology standpoint, at the time, it was impossible to field a high-quality web client or mobile product, but that time wouldn't last. Many observers believed that as the world inevitably transitioned to mobile and web, Skype would be left in the dust.

????With a company as complex as Skype, investors draw different conclusions about the same facts. In this case we had the same data as everybody else, but we had a radically higher opinion of Skype's founders and employees than the doubters and naysayers. We believed that we could work with, rather than against, the founders. And we believed that Skype's amazing engineering team, led by the original Eastern European software wizards who created the service, could compete and win against anybody.

????We specifically thought that Niklas and Janus, two of the preeminent technology entrepreneurs of our time, wanted Skype to be a huge success and would do everything in their power to make that happen. As a result, we did not think the doomsday scenario that greatly concerned other investors—that the founders would attempt to shut down the company through the courts—was an actual possibility. Based on the founders' motivations, we felt that we'd quickly settle the IP litigation. Both sides wanted to get on with the business of making Skype more competitive and could not afford to waste time bickering about IP ownership.

????We couldn't have been more right about that. After quickly settling the litigation, both founders immediately made major contributions to the business through their energy, insight, and intellectual prowess. And boy did we need them to do that, because we soon faced full frontal assaults from the both Google and Apple.

When giants attack

????In a direct attack, Google offered a free competitor to Skype's US paid product and a heavily discounted competitor to Skype's international product. Google then aggressively promoted these cheap products to their enormous Gmail user base by forcing every Gmail user to view Google's Internet telephony advertisement before allowing them to access their email. What was the result of this effort? Skype new users and usage growth has accelerated since Google's launch, culminating in:

????? *500,000 new registered users per day

????? *170 million connected users

????? *30 million users communicating on the Skype platform concurrently

????? *209 billion voice and video minutes in 2010

????On the mobile front, Apple built video calling right into the iPhone, making their Facetime product the default offering for iPhone users. How did that impact Skype's usage on the iPhone? 50 million users have downloaded Skype's iPhone product since the release of Apple's Facetime.

????In retrospect, it was easy for people to underestimate the quality of the Skype engineering team and the power of Skype's network effect. When we bought the company from eBay, many thought that Skype, like so many acquired technology companies, had lost its technical talent. Through our research, we found that Skype had a core group of engineers who were completely dedicated to the mission. They stayed through the eBay acquisition and were hugely determined to make Skype the communications company of the future. Over the past decade, this team consistently introduced groundbreaking technologies ranging from highly resilient and scalable peer-to-peer networking to radically higher sound quality through dramatically superior codecs. In doing so, Skype out-innovated the competition in the most important areas. When combined with its powerful network effect—how valuable is a video calling service if there is nobody to call?—Skype became a formidable competitor.

Smart move, Microsoft

????Today, I tip my hat to an old rival, Microsoft. By acquiring Skype, Microsoft becomes a much stronger player in mobile and the clear market leader in Internet voice and video communications. More importantly, Microsoft gets a team, ably led by the exceptional Tony Bates, that can compete with anyone.

????Ben Horowitz is co-founder and general partner of Andreessen Horowitz, a venture capital firm created to support the needs of today's technology-focused entrepreneurs through angel investments to large scale funding. Ben currently serves on the board of Okta, Nicira, Proferi and Skype.

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