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美投資者競相看空中國

美投資者競相看空中國

Scott Cendrowski 2011-07-01
制造業(yè)工作崗位正在從中國向美國回流,不過許多看空中國的投資者認為,這只是中國所面臨的種種問題中最微不足道的一個。

????吉姆?查諾斯并不是唯一一個唱衰中國的人。查諾斯是美國知名賣空大師,而且一直不疑余力地唱衰中國。他上個月表示很想做空某些在美上市但財務(wù)報表可疑的中國公司,只是苦于籌措不到足夠的股票建倉。查諾斯接受這次訪問僅一周后,就有另一名賣空者發(fā)布了一份報告,指責一家在美上市的中國木材公司(嘉漢林業(yè)——譯注)財務(wù)造假,受其影響,該公司股價暴跌90%。

????最近交易員們競相做空中國股票,再次證明在投資家的圈子里,有一種觀點日益流行——如果不看空中國,就會錯過下一輪大交易。

????美國研究機構(gòu)羅迪集團(Rhodium Group)合伙人、中美關(guān)系專家榮大聶指出:“市場和外國學者現(xiàn)在都變得更悲觀了?!?/p>

????查諾斯是從2009年開始唱衰中國的,當時他手下的分析師們開始研究中國的房地產(chǎn)繁榮,導致查諾斯將中國稱為“迪拜*1,000”。同年,波士頓的投資公司GMO的愛德華?錢思樂和獨立經(jīng)濟學家謝國忠也開始預言中國經(jīng)濟將出現(xiàn)硬著陸。

????最近越來越多的人加入了唱衰中國的陣營。億萬富翁喬治?索羅斯本月表示,中國可能出現(xiàn)了小的泡沫,而即將離職的香港證監(jiān)會行政總裁韋弈禮也表示,中國可能成為“下一個互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫”。擅長預言的經(jīng)濟學家努里爾?魯比尼近日再次重申了他的觀點:2013年后,中國政府將無力阻止問題房地產(chǎn)項目和固定資產(chǎn)投資不足而導致的經(jīng)濟衰退。

????在唱衰中國的人中,許多人的觀點源于這樣一個事實:中國經(jīng)濟正在以9%的GDP增長率飛速增長。中國政府可能無法控制通脹,如果通脹失控,則會對增長造成不利影響。與此同時,中國的商業(yè)地產(chǎn)和住宅都供大于求,這些地產(chǎn)在未來許多年里可能都是國有銀行的包袱,還有可能導致通貨緊縮。此外中國政府在固定資產(chǎn)方面還做出了其他一些不明智的投資。詳見《中國地方債務(wù)成不定時炸彈》( China's debt bomb)一文。

????魯比尼的主要觀點是,中共高層一直奉行寬松的貨幣政策。魯比尼指出,中國的凈出口額在2008至2009年的經(jīng)濟危機時期有所下降,但在政府行為的刺激下,固定投資占GDP的比重(如造橋和修路)從42%上升到了47%,這足以使中國躲過一場嚴重的衰退。不過魯比尼也指出,中國的資本支出雖然激增,也不可能全部流入到有實效的項目上。魯比尼本人在訪問中國期間,就看到許多新建成的機場和高速列車都空空如也,還看到許多空無一人的“鬼城”,以及毫無意義的高速公路。中國的商業(yè)地產(chǎn)和豪華住宅已經(jīng)供過于求,汽車產(chǎn)量也已經(jīng)超過了需求水平。魯比尼表示,在短期內(nèi),這些因素都會導致通脹——也就是過多的資金追逐有限的好項目。但最終產(chǎn)能過剩會導致通貨緊縮壓力,而這種壓力往往會首先在制造業(yè)和房地產(chǎn)部門顯現(xiàn)出來。

????魯比尼今年四月在一篇發(fā)表于評論網(wǎng)站Project Syndicate上的文章中寫道:“問題是一個國家的產(chǎn)能再高,也不可能高到將50%的GDP進行再投資而不出現(xiàn)巨額的產(chǎn)能過剩?!?/p>

????魯比尼以90年代末的亞洲金融危機為例,說明了當國家過度投資但消費不足時將會出現(xiàn)的情況。魯比尼認為,為了避免中國經(jīng)濟在2013年發(fā)生所謂的“硬著陸”,中國應(yīng)減少儲蓄、削減固定投資、減少凈出口額占GDP的比重,同時著手推動國內(nèi)消費。

????魯比尼表示:“中國人之所以重儲蓄,輕消費,背后的原因是結(jié)構(gòu)性的,這也正是麻煩所在。中國需要20年的改革才能扭轉(zhuǎn)過度投資的傾向。”

????上周喬治?索羅斯在出席挪威的一次經(jīng)濟會議時表示,中國已經(jīng)錯失了扼制通脹的良機。據(jù)彭博社(Bloomberg)報道,索羅斯在會議上表示,中國現(xiàn)在“有一點泡沫”。索羅斯補充道,中國已經(jīng)開始出現(xiàn)由工資帶動物價上漲的通貨膨脹,在他看來,這也表明中國的經(jīng)濟增長已經(jīng)開始失去動力。

????與此同時,有證據(jù)表明中國的房地產(chǎn)市場的確出現(xiàn)了問題,而且這些問題也引起了兩家大型評級機構(gòu)的關(guān)注。標準普爾(Standard & Poor)6月15日將中國房地產(chǎn)市場的展望下調(diào)至“負面”,標準普爾表示,明年中國的信貸緊縮可能會導致房地產(chǎn)價格下降10%。穆迪(Moody)三個月前也把對中國房地產(chǎn)市場的展望下調(diào)至“負面”。

????大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟學家仍然預測中國第二季度的GDP增幅將超過9%,全年的GDP增幅也將保持在9%左右。而過去30年的大多數(shù)年份里,中國的GDP年增率都在10%左右。

????彼得森國際經(jīng)濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的高級研究員尼古拉斯?拉迪表示:“當然,我認為和經(jīng)濟學家比起來,我們更容易從華爾街的投資人身上感受到他們對中國經(jīng)濟硬著陸的恐慌?!崩媳硎舅麖那熬瓦^見過這一幕。在上世紀90年代末,中國的消費價格指數(shù)的增長率一度高達25%,但這并未影響中國后來的經(jīng)濟增長。

????拉迪補充道:“可以說中國去年的發(fā)展已經(jīng)超出了它的增長潛力,現(xiàn)在可以看到中國經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)在通脹中放緩。”不過隨著貨幣緊縮政策減少了貨幣的供給,加上“政府對高通脹十分敏感,因此我認為中國仍處在良好的軌道上?!?/p>

????如今華爾街的投資家們紛紛表示看空中國,這種悲觀情緒幾乎占據(jù)了主流?,F(xiàn)在該由中國來證明這些美國投資家是對是錯了。

????譯者:樸成奎

????Jim Chanos is not alone. The well-known short-seller and vocal China bear spoke last month of not finding enough available shares to short some U.S.-listed Chinese companies with questionable accounting practices. Just a week after his interview, a short seller's report on a U.S.-listed Chinese timber company sent its stock tumbling 90%.

????Indeed, the rush of traders making bearish bets on Chinese stocks is the latest evidence of growing trend among smart money: if you're not bearish on China, you're missing the next big trade.

????"The market and foreign academics have both turned more pessimistic," says Dan Rosen, a partner at the Rhodium Group who follows U.S.-China relations.

????Chanos started things off in 2009 when his analysts studied China's building boom, leading him to call it "Dubai times 1,000." Edward Chancellor at GMO in Boston and independent economist Andy Xie also began predicting that year that China would soon stumble.

????More recently the chorus has been growing. Billionaire George Soros said this month China might be in a small bubble, Hong Kong's outgoing securities regulator called it "the new dot-com," and soothsayer economist Nouriel Roubini recently repeated his thinking that China's government will be powerless to stop a downturn caused by dubious real estate projects and poor fixed-asset investments after 2013.

????Most of the arguments are some derivative of this: China's economy is screaming ahead at 9% GDP growth. The government may not be able to control inflation, and that could hurt growth. Meanwhile, there's a commercial and residential property glut that could hamper state-run banks for years and lead to deflation. Plus, the Chinese government has made other terrible investments across fixed-assets. (See also China's debt bomb)

????Roubini's main point is that China's communist leaders have been fast and loose with money. He says when China's net exports declined during the 2008-2009 global recession, government actions boosted fixed-investments' share of GDP (think bridge building and new roads) to 47% from 42%. It was enough to avert a severe recession in China, but Roubini contends that exploding capital spending can't possibly keep going to useful projects. He visited China and saw newly built airports and bullet trains that are empty, ghost towns, and highways leading to nowhere. Commercial real estate projects and luxury residential buildings have been overbuilt, and automobile capacity has outrun demand. In the short run, says Roubini, this all leads to inflation—too much money chasing too few good projects. But eventually overcapacity leads to deflationary pressures, which typically begin in the manufacturing and real-estate sectors.

????"The problem, of course, is that no country can be productive enough to reinvest 50% of GDP in new capital stock without eventually facing immense overcapacity," he wrote in an April article for Project Syndicate.

????Roubini uses the Asian financial crisis of the late '90s as an example of what happens when countries over-invest and under-consume. To avoid a so-called hard landing after 2013, Roubini thinks China needs to save less, cut fixed investment, reduce net exports' share of GDP, and start boosting domestic consumption.

????"The trouble is that the reasons the Chinese save so much and consume so little are structural," he says. "It will take two decades of reforms to change the incentive to over-invest."

????Last week George Soros used a recent appearance at an economic conference in Norway to say China has missed its opportunity to stem inflation. The billionaire investor told the conference that China is in "a bit of a bubble," according to Bloomberg. Soros added that the country was beginning to see the first sings of wage-price inflation, an indication to him that China's strategy for growing the economy was running out of steam.

????Meanwhile, China's well-documented real-estate problems recently attracted the attention of two major ratings agencies. Standard & Poor's cut its outlook to 'negative' on Chinese developers on June 15 and the rating agency said tighter credit could drive down prices by 10% over the next year. Three months earlier Moody's also downgraded its outlook on China property market to negative.

????Most economists still forecast China GDP growth to eclipse 9% in the second quarter, and settle around 9% growth for the full-year. This after rising at a 10% annualized clip for most of the past 30 years.

????"I certainly think fear of a hard landing is much more palpable on Wall Street among investors than people who study the economy," says Nicholas Lardy, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He's seen this story play out before, in the late '90s when China's consumer price index hit 25% growth. It didn't hamper future growth then.

????"It's fair to say China was growing above its potential last year, and we see it play out in high prices," adds Lardy. But with monetary tightening reducing the money supply and "given the political sensitivity to high inflation, I think they're on a good trajectory."

????The smart money around Wall Street says to bet against China, turning the sentiment almost mainstream. Now it's up to China's communist party to prove them right or wrong.

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