????2006至2007年，木材產(chǎn)品巨頭惠好公司（Weyerhaeuser）斥資8億美元，進行了公司歷史上最大規(guī)模的股票回購。當(dāng)時，其股價飆升至每股80美元的歷史最高值。而在2009年，其股價跌至每股30美元，當(dāng)時公司只花了200萬美元用于股票回購。同樣，2007年，半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備生產(chǎn)商美商休斯電子材料公司（MEMC Electronic Materials）斥資1億美元，在其股價達(dá)到每股90美元的最高價時，回購公司股票。目前，其股價為每股8美元，而該公司沒有任何要回購股票的跡象。還有一個更極端的例子：在過去十年中，花旗集團（Citigroup）投入310億美元，用于股票回購，結(jié)果其股票價格下跌了97%。最后，花旗集團不得不求助政府，提供450億美元的注資。

????我們不妨稱其為另一個泡沫：2004至2008年間，許多公司資金充裕、信心高漲，總計投入了1.8萬億美元，以回購價格不斷飆升的股票。而當(dāng)市場崩潰時，這些公司又是怎么做的呢？它們沒有充分利用股票價格優(yōu)勢，繼續(xù)回購股票，而是停止了回購，這顯然不是明智的投資者應(yīng)有之舉。下圖顯示了這些公司的回購行為與市場走勢之間的緊密聯(lián)系，他們的回購顯然屬于決策失誤。

????現(xiàn)在，回購再一次接近歷史記錄水平，這一趨勢具有一定的參考價值。知名投資機構(gòu)畢潤宜公司（Birinyi Associates）表示，到六月中旬，美國公司宣布用于回購股票的資金已經(jīng)高達(dá)2,730億美元，回購規(guī)模之大排在歷史第三位。

????按理說，公司回購股票時，投資者將從中獲利。發(fā)行在外的股票越少，意味著每股應(yīng)占的利潤越多，股票價格也就越高。而且，公司比任何人都更清楚自身的發(fā)展前景，如果連公司都在買入，這應(yīng)該是一個好跡象吧？可惜這幾年的事實并非如此。

????事實上，投資者不應(yīng)把股票回購本身當(dāng)作買進的信號。公司回購股票的原因是多種多樣的，比如清理授予高管的額外股票，或管理層認(rèn)為股票估值過低，總之，只有少數(shù)原因會產(chǎn)生積極的結(jié)果。

????In 2006 and 2007 timber giant Weyerhaeuser (WY) conducted one of the biggest share buybacks in its history. It unleashed $800 million to purchase its shares, which were dancing near an all-time high of $80. In 2009, with the stock at $30, the company spent a mere $2 million on its own stock. Similarly, semiconductor equipment maker MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) purchased $100 million of its shares near their peak of $90 in 2007. Today the shares are trading at $8, and MEMC shows no signs that it's buying. Then there's the ultimate horror story: Citigroup (C) spent $31 billion last decade on its own stock, only to see it crash 97%. Citi then needed $45 billion in infusions from the government.

????Call it the other bubble: From 2004 to 2008 companies flush with cash and confidence spent $1.8 trillion on their own soaring shares. When the market collapsed, what did they do? Rather than take advantage of discount share prices, as wise investors are supposed to do, they stopped buying. Indeed, the chart below illustrates just how closely share buybacks track the markets, when they should be doing the opposite.

????That's newly relevant because buybacks are again reaching record levels. U.S. companies have announced $273 billion in stock repurchases through mid-June, says Birinyi Associates, on pace for the third-largest year ever.

????In theory, investors should benefit when companies acquire their own stock. Fewer shares outstanding means larger profits per share and thus a higher stock price. And if the company, which knows its prospects better than anyone, is buying, that's a good sign, right? Alas, in recent years it often hasn't worked out that way.

????Indeed, investors shouldn't treat a repurchase on its own as a signal to buy. Companies announce buybacks for many reasons -- among others, to mop up the extra shares issued to executives or because management thinks shares are undervalued -- and only some have positive implications.

????投資研究公司TrimTabs Investment Research的CEO查爾斯?彼得曼表示，現(xiàn)在的回購會深深地刺痛投資者。他說：“現(xiàn)在情況有點反?！?。即使回購能夠升值，高管也不會把自己的資金用于公司股票回購。六月中旬的內(nèi)部人員回購額幾乎達(dá)到2009年的回購總額，而2009年的回購總額僅是2007年的四分之一。彼得曼說：“這表明許多公司現(xiàn)金充裕，它們認(rèn)為現(xiàn)金和公司的業(yè)務(wù)沒有太大關(guān)系。所以，它們支持股票價格，并開始回購股票，這也正是華爾街希望它們做的?！?/p>

????那么，結(jié)果是，公司也容易犯和個人投資者相同的錯誤。顧問公司Fortuna Advisors的格雷格?米蘭說：“真正的問題不是回購股票的行為。而是時機問題?！惫驹谏虡I(yè)周期的巔峰期擁有最多資金，這也是其股價攀至最高的時候，然后他們以高價買入結(jié)束一個商業(yè)周期。他說：“首先，公司把資金用于好的投資項目；其次，進行并購；再次，償還債務(wù)。最后，才會用于股票回購?！?/p>

????有些公司在回購游戲中顯然比其他公司做得更出色。Fortuna Advisors曾經(jīng)對標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾（S&P）500強公司過去10年的股票回購進行調(diào)查，將回購時的股票價格與現(xiàn)在的股票價格進行對比，以計算出理論上的“回購回報率”。

????Fortuna的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，最大的贏家是美國在線旅游公司Priceline.com。2006年，該公司投入1.3億美元用于回購股票。后來，該公司的歐洲業(yè)務(wù)大幅上升，令分析師震驚，股票價格也上漲至原來的三倍；其第二次回購也收效頗豐?？傮w來看，Princeline的回購帶來了大約1,013%的回報。相比之下，過去十年標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500強公司的年平均回購回報率僅為6.3%（數(shù)字來源：Fortuna）——尚不足以填補用于購買股票的費用。

????那么，在新一輪的回購熱潮中，投資者應(yīng)該怎么做呢？這個問題看上去好像很簡單。市盈率以及其它顯示公司高管正在為他們的投資組合買入股票的傳統(tǒng)衡量方式都值得參考，但是除此以外，最好把回購也看作是一條有用的信息。按此標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，摩根大通銀行（J.P. Morgan Chase）和富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的股票看起來極具吸引力。這兩家銀行的回購計劃都位居2011年十大回購計劃之列，內(nèi)部人員的股票回購額超過了它們的股票銷售額。對于摩根大通銀行，新法規(guī)令投資者擔(dān)憂，但是這家投行保守的資金水平和穩(wěn)定的股本回報率令其頗具吸引力，特別是其7倍的預(yù)測市盈率，處于一個較低的水平。而對于富國銀行，它無需遵守可能影響其他銀行的自由資金交易業(yè)務(wù)法規(guī)，而且其貸款拖欠或止贖率僅為美國銀行（Bank of America）的一半。

????另外，兩家擁有良好回購記錄的公司今年也宣布了回購計劃。美國快捷藥方公司（Express Scripts）是一家藥房福利管理公司，名列Fortuna調(diào)查結(jié)果第15位，該公司計劃斥資17億美元用于公司股票回購。鐵路運營商聯(lián)合太平洋鐵路公司（Union Pacific）因為提高基本運價，上季度銷售額增加了13%，該公司計劃在2014年前回購4,000萬支公司股票。以銷售額增加和穩(wěn)健的基本面為依托的股票回購，才能獲得良好回報。以上兩家公司的回購就符合這樣的條件。

????（翻譯 喬樹靜）

????Today's buybacks could very well bite investors, argues Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs Investment Research. "We have an anomaly right now," he says. Even as buybacks proliferate, executives aren't spending their own money on their company's shares. Insider purchases through mid-June were on track to trail even 2009's total, which itself was just a quarter of the purchases made in 2007. "That indicates to me that companies are flush with cash, and don't feel they have anything to do with the cash in terms of their business," Biderman says. "So they are supporting their stock price, doing what the Street wants them to do, which is buying back shares."

????Companies, it turns out, are prone to the same mistake individual investors make. Says Greg Milano of Fortuna Advisors: "The real problem is not the act of buying back stock. It's the timing." Companies have the most money at the top of the business cycle, when their share price is peaking, and they wind up buying high. "Companies spend first on making good investments," he says, "then acquisitions, then they pay down debt. Only after all that do they buy back stock."

????That said, some companies are clearly better than others at this particular game. Fortuna Advisors has tallied buybacks at S&P 500 companies over the past 10 years, comparing the price at the time of repurchase with today's stock price to calculate a theoretical "return on buyback" figure.

????The biggest winner: travel website Priceline.com. (PCLN) In 2006 it spent $130 million on its own shares before its booming European business caught analysts by surprise and the stock tripled; a second repurchase also paid off. Overall Priceline's buybacks have generated an estimated 1,013% gain. By comparison, the average S&P 500 company's annualized return on buybacks over the past decade was 6.3%, according to Fortuna -- not even enough to cover the cost of capital needed to pay for the shares.

????So how should investors play the new buyback boom? It may seem obvious, but repurchases are best viewed as one useful item of information to be weighed along with traditional metrics, such as price/earnings ratios or indications that company executives are buying the stock for their own portfolios. By that standard, shares of J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) look appealing. Repurchase plans at the two banks rank among the 10 largest of 2011, and insider buying exceeds selling at both banks. With JPM, new regulations have scared investors, but its conservative capital levels and solid return on equity make it attractive, especially at its anemic 7 forward P/E. For its part, Wells faces none of the proprietary-trading regulations that could hamper other banks, and its percentage of mortgages in delinquency or foreclosure is about half that at Bank of America (BAC).

????Two companies with strong buyback records have also announced repurchases this year. Express Scripts (ESRX), the pharmacy benefit manager, ranked 15th in Fortuna's study and expects to spend $1.7 billion on purchases. Railroad operator Union Pacific (UNP), whose sales rose 13% in the last quarter because it was able to raise freight prices, plans to acquire 40 million shares by 2014. It's that sort of buyback -- one accompanied by rising sales and strong fundamentals -- that can put a stock on track for a good return.