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五大事件影響未來(lái)市場(chǎng)

五大事件影響未來(lái)市場(chǎng)

Duff McDonald 2011-07-13
希臘債務(wù)危機(jī)不應(yīng)該令人感到驚訝,但市場(chǎng)的反應(yīng)卻截然相反。我們清楚希臘將發(fā)生什么,事情真的發(fā)生時(shí),我們只能說(shuō)“我早就告訴過(guò)你會(huì)這樣?!?

????為什么希臘債務(wù)瀕臨違約似乎讓這么多的投資者措手不及?從上周日開(kāi)始的過(guò)去兩周,股票六次漲跌,讓人以為人們并沒(méi)有預(yù)料到這種情況。事實(shí)是,他們?cè)缬蓄A(yù)料。即便希臘確實(shí)違約,我們也應(yīng)該對(duì)此早有心理準(zhǔn)備。但是“市場(chǎng)”,無(wú)論它是誰(shuí),似乎不能一次記住太多事情。

????如果耐克(NKE)收入好于預(yù)期更,這一天希臘的事情似乎就被拋在了腦后。過(guò)后人們又重新記起這回事來(lái)。難道只有我看到了這種趨勢(shì)的荒謬性嗎?季度報(bào)告來(lái)來(lái)去去,而希臘是不會(huì)償還這些債務(wù)的。那么恐慌的歐洲國(guó)家元首能否將清算推遲就真的變得無(wú)所謂了。金融學(xué)教授們總是告訴我這就是市場(chǎng)定價(jià)的方式。我再也不相信這種說(shuō)法了。我在想是不是全球投資者都不了解情況。

????的確,我知道成為專(zhuān)業(yè)投資者并始終專(zhuān)注于股市行情是非常困難的。你怎么知道何時(shí)有重要的需要知道的事情,比如是誰(shuí)殺害了凱西?安東尼(美國(guó)近期一樁殺害幼童案的受害者——譯注)?另外,夏日炎炎,沙灘在向你招手。但是,這并不意味著“市場(chǎng)”有權(quán)不知道紛至沓來(lái)的重大事件。希臘近期的債務(wù)危機(jī)只是其中最近的一個(gè)例子。2010年11月第二輪量化寬松政策(QE2)的啟動(dòng)則是另一個(gè)。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(the Federal Reserve)事實(shí)上早就釋放了該政策的信號(hào)彈,但是人們?nèi)匀环磻?yīng)得就像當(dāng)天早上才宣布似的。

????現(xiàn)在就來(lái)看看有哪些壞消息。我詢(xún)問(wèn)投資顧問(wèn)公司Coburn Ventures頗有見(jiàn)地的專(zhuān)家之一皮普?科伯恩,在他看來(lái)投資者在作出微觀決策時(shí)是否會(huì)意識(shí)到宏觀的大趨勢(shì)。他簡(jiǎn)短地回答:不會(huì)。“我認(rèn)為根本的問(wèn)題是‘投資者’還停留在謀生階段,很少去觀察(集體)自身的規(guī)律,相反卻被日常的瑣事纏身。”他說(shuō)。“無(wú)論如何,我都看不到任何這種現(xiàn)狀即將結(jié)束的跡象,除非突然間60%或更多的市場(chǎng)參與者嚴(yán)肅地對(duì)待投資事業(yè),而不是不經(jīng)任何深入思考、隨意地選擇投資項(xiàng)目。”

????好吧,讓我來(lái)替他們完成這項(xiàng)工作吧。我將尋找?guī)孜桓挥卸床炝Φ娜耸孔隹瓦@周的專(zhuān)欄,這些人認(rèn)同歐洲將重演希臘債務(wù)危機(jī)。請(qǐng)不要誤解,我說(shuō)的不是正在迫近、讓整個(gè)歐洲都驚恐不安的某個(gè)主權(quán)國(guó)家的債務(wù)違約。這個(gè)目標(biāo)太顯而易見(jiàn)了。是葡萄牙、意大利還是西班牙?相反,我將討論一些不可避免的事情,人們出于某些原因還沒(méi)有充分考慮它們。好吧,也許他們并非不可避免,或者說(shuō)我們將討論的第四種情況其實(shí)已經(jīng)發(fā)生了。但是,難道我們不需要去了解這種可能性嗎?為了讓市場(chǎng)在最近這段時(shí)間不至于一提到這些事情就立即崩潰,我們能不能討論一下以下這些事情?

????1. 美國(guó)一大型銀行將需要重新注資。頭號(hào)候選:美國(guó)銀行(Bank of America)。機(jī)構(gòu)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析公司(Institutional Risk Analytics)的負(fù)責(zé)人克里斯托弗?惠倫,同時(shí)也是一位一貫尖銳的分析師,推薦了這一條。本周美國(guó)銀行達(dá)成85億美元(140億帶附帶條款)抵押貸款和解協(xié)議將使這一消息變得非??赡?。銀行投資者是否會(huì)感到意外呢?毫無(wú)疑問(wèn),他們會(huì)的。

????2. 美國(guó)市政債券危機(jī):最近大多新聞媒體都花大篇幅報(bào)道了明星分析師梅瑞狄斯-惠特尼的遠(yuǎn)見(jiàn),她在美國(guó)的市政債危機(jī)尚未發(fā)生前就預(yù)測(cè)了美國(guó)將出現(xiàn)市政債券違約額過(guò)高的現(xiàn)象。她仍然認(rèn)為,美國(guó)州級(jí)和地方財(cái)政狀況將帶來(lái)一場(chǎng)危機(jī)。許多更顯赫的人物也認(rèn)同這一觀點(diǎn):沃倫?巴菲特就曾預(yù)測(cè)過(guò)類(lèi)似的事情。那些認(rèn)為類(lèi)似希臘民眾對(duì)政府的憤怒不會(huì)出現(xiàn)在美國(guó)的人,你們有沒(méi)有注意到最近收集垃圾的次數(shù)已經(jīng)由每周兩次變成了一次。也許住在曼哈頓的市政分析師太多,以至于沒(méi)人知道垃圾車(chē)的工作時(shí)間表?!疚艺f(shuō)的就是你,亞歷山德拉.萊貝撒爾(證券公司 Lebenthal & Co高管——譯注)】請(qǐng)不要告訴我在此之前你沒(méi)有注意到這一點(diǎn)。

????3. 中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)引擎將產(chǎn)生反效果,沒(méi)人能夠置身事外。供職于《格蘭特利率觀察家》雜志(Grant's Interest Rate Observer)的詹姆斯?格蘭特希望提醒所有人,中國(guó)的銀行處于非常危險(xiǎn)的狀態(tài)。中國(guó)的情況你了解吧。中國(guó)的銀行貸款數(shù)額增長(zhǎng)過(guò)快,其中部分貸款還投向了政府部門(mén),同時(shí)銀行的不良貸款率畸高。雜志的分析師伊萬(wàn)?洛倫茲一針見(jiàn)血地指出:“亞洲所謂的國(guó)家固定資產(chǎn)投資發(fā)展模式總是會(huì)導(dǎo)致債務(wù)大規(guī)模配置不當(dāng)以及定價(jià)錯(cuò)誤。20世紀(jì)70年代蘇聯(lián)和20世紀(jì)90年代的韓國(guó)都曾發(fā)生過(guò)這種情況。這種模式一開(kāi)始運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)不錯(cuò),然后就會(huì)開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題,最后崩盤(pán)?!?/p>

????4. 中國(guó)知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)獲取方式難以為繼。談到中國(guó),科技智囊集團(tuán)戰(zhàn)略通訊社(Strategic News Service)的馬克?安德森指出,中國(guó)從其他國(guó)家獲得知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)的30年歷程將難以為繼。還記得針對(duì)谷歌(Google)、瞻博網(wǎng)絡(luò)(Juniper Networks)、摩根士丹利 (MS) (Morgan Stanley)以及 Adobe (ADBE) 的極光攻擊行動(dòng)(the Aurora attack)嗎?顯然,這僅僅是在安德森最近一次會(huì)議上出現(xiàn)的內(nèi)容,英特爾 (INTC) (Intel) 也是一個(gè)目標(biāo)。請(qǐng)忘記中國(guó)的廉價(jià)勞動(dòng)力吧。

????5. 美國(guó)債務(wù)上限問(wèn)題。最后我們不要忘記還有美國(guó)債務(wù)上限問(wèn)題。我知道,這個(gè)問(wèn)題在華盛頓已經(jīng)成為一個(gè)黨派之爭(zhēng),盡管我不能理解是出于什么原因維護(hù)國(guó)家信用評(píng)級(jí)這一神圣的職責(zé)會(huì)成為一個(gè)黨派問(wèn)題。共和黨就這個(gè)問(wèn)題向總統(tǒng)發(fā)難顯示出他們除了關(guān)注自己短期的民意指標(biāo)之外嚴(yán)重?zé)o知。(可悲的是,這種無(wú)知與整體上不關(guān)注大局投資者何其相似乃爾。不愿退一步思索一下整體的形勢(shì)難道是人類(lèi)的本性嗎?長(zhǎng)官們,債務(wù)上限確實(shí)不是一個(gè)黨派問(wèn)題。)摩根大通固定收益主管馬特?贊姆斯四月給美國(guó)財(cái)長(zhǎng)蓋特納寫(xiě)信稱(chēng),如果我們都放任自流,我們將失去外國(guó)投資者,我們長(zhǎng)期珍視的零風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)級(jí)將面臨降級(jí)、引發(fā)貨幣市場(chǎng)資金大逃亡、利率上升,最終危及經(jīng)濟(jì)。因此,沒(méi)什么大不了的,真的。讓我們回來(lái)評(píng)價(jià)一下??怂剐侣劸W(wǎng)(Fox News)的原話。那才是真正重要的。

????始終要抱有積極的態(tài)度,朋友們。我只是想把事情攤開(kāi)來(lái)說(shuō)。

????Why did Greece's brush with default seem to catch so many investors off guard? With stocks ping-ponging six ways from Sunday over the past two weeks, you'd think people hadn't seen this coming. Except that they did. Even if the country did default, we should have been ready for it. But the "market"—whoever that is—can't seem to keep more than one thing in its head at once.

????If Nike (NKE) reports better than expected earnings, it seems to forget about Greece for a day. And then it remembers. Am I the only one who sees the ridiculousness of this tendency? Quarterly reports come and go, but Greece will never repay these debts. So it really doesn't matter if the panicked European heads of state put off their day of reckoning or not. My finance professors always told me the market "priced" things like this in. I don't buy it anymore. I'm starting to think that global investors are clueless.

????Yes, I know it's hard to be a professional investor and to keep your eyes on the ball. How can you when there are important things to know, like who killed Caylee Anthony? Plus, it's summer, and the beach beckons. But that doesn't mean the "market" has any right to be ignorant of events that are barreling down the pike toward it. Greece's near default is only the latest example of such. The kick-off of QE2 in November 2010 was another. The Federal Reserve practically sent up smoke signals on that one and people still responded as if had only been announced that morning.

????Here's the bad news. I asked Pip Coburn of Coburn Ventures, one of the more insightful thinkers out there, whether he thought investors would ever wake up to the larger patterns around their own micro decisions. Short answer: No. "I think the root issue is that 'investors' live in survival mode and rarely work to observe (en masse) their own patterns and are instead sucked into the stuff of the day," he says. "I don't see that ending whatsoever unless suddenly 60% or more of market participants decide to pursue investing seriously as opposed to just randomly voting without increasing levels of thought."

????So fine, I'll do their job for them. For this week's column, I set out to find a few insightful folks who think they see another Greece coming on. No, I don't mean a looming default by a sovereign nation that has all of Europe scared. That one is almost too obvious. It's Portugal. I mean Italy. Or maybe Spain? Instead, I'm talking about a handful of inevitables that people have yet to fully process, for one reason or another. Okay, so maybe they're not inevitable, or, in the case of #4, they're already happening. But can we not agree to be aware of the possibilities? Can we discuss these things so that markets don't faint at the very mention of them sometime down the road?

????1. A major U.S. bank will need to be recapitalized. Candidate numero uno: Bank of America (BAC). Christopher Whalen, the always-pointed analyst in charge of Institutional Risk Analytics, offered this one. This week's $8.5 billion mortgage settlement ($14 billion with add-ons) makes that even more likely. Will bank investors be surprised? Of course they will.

????2. A municipal debt crisis in the U.S. There has been much ink spilled of late over the fact that star analyst Meredith Whitney predicted a rash of municipal defaults and they haven't happened yet. She still maintains that the state of state and local finances are a looming crisis. She's in good company: Warren Buffett has predicted similar things. And anyone who thinks we're not about to see some Greek-style anger at public officials in this country hasn't noticed that their garbage only gets picked up one day a week these days instead of two. Perhaps too many municipal analysts live in Manhattan to even know about garbage truck schedules. (I'm talking to you, Alexandra Lebenthal.) Please do not tell me you didn't see this one coming when it happens.

????3. The Chinese economic engine is going to have a backfire, and we'll all feel it. The inimitable James Grant, of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, would like to remind us all that the state of Chinese banks is a perilous one. You know, that whole thing about growing their loan books too quickly, having directed lending, some to government itself, and an abnormally high percentage of non-performing loans? Evan Lorenz, an analyst at Grant's, puts it succinctly: "The so-called Asian development model of state-directed fixed asset investment always leads to massive misallocation and mispriced debt. We've seen this before—in the Soviet Union in the 1970s and South Korea in the 1990s. It works well until it doesn't, and then it crashes."

????4. Speaking of China, Mark Anderson of Strategic News Service says that the 30-year effort by the Chinese of "obtaining" intellectual property from other nations is coming to a head. Remember the Aurora attack on Google (GOOG), Juniper Networks, Morgan Stanley (MS), and Adobe (ADBE)? Apparently, and this just emerged at Anderson's latest conference, Intel (INTC) was a target too. Forget low-cost Chinese labor.

????5. Lest we forget, there's the whole debt ceiling issue. I know this has gone all partisan in Washington, although for what reason, I cannot comprehend, as the sanctity of the nation's credit rating should be a bipartisan issue. Republicans daring the President to a game of chicken over this show a profound lack of awareness beyond their own short-term poll numbers. (Which, sadly, is a corollary to the whole investors not paying attention to the big picture issue. Is it just human nature not to step back and think about context? It's just not a partisan issue, folks.) Matt Zames, head of fixed income at JP Morgan, wrote to Tim Geithner in April that if we blow this one, we're going to lose foreign investors, risk a downgrade of our long-cherished risk-free rating, trigger a run on money market funds, raise interest rates, and imperil the economy. So no big deal, really. Let's get back to scoring soundbites on Fox News. That's what really matters.

????Always optimistic here, people. Just want to get it all out on the table.

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