????歐元已經(jīng)降至1.41美元水平，較7月4日前最高位回落1個百分點。包括德國德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank, DB）和英國巴克萊銀行（Barclays, BCS）意大利裕信銀行（Unicredit）在內(nèi)的歐洲大型金融銀行股跌幅高達6%-8%。

????上周，就在拋售開始的同時，歐洲經(jīng)濟弱國發(fā)行了國債。意大利和西班牙國債收益率已升至德國國債的兩倍多，這是歐元發(fā)行十多年來所出現(xiàn)的最高倍差。

????歐洲弱國國債的狂跌引發(fā)了新一輪關(guān)于歐洲銀行健康狀況的恐慌，因為他們是主權(quán)債務(wù)的最大持有者。就在歐洲銀行即將公布最新一輪的抗壓測試結(jié)果之前，拋售開始了。

????盡管歐洲決策者們希望測試結(jié)果能緩解人們對銀行系統(tǒng)健康的擔憂，然而近幾天意大利國債交易價的暴跌無疑是在往傷口上撒鹽。

????僅在一個月前，意大利財政告急，但應該還不至于傷及筋骨。那時，投資者關(guān)注的腳墊是西班牙能否熬過一項即將到來的市場測試。

????除了債務(wù)纏身，意大利政府的行政功能也是出了名的紊亂，在經(jīng)濟增長減緩以及銀行疲軟這個大環(huán)境下，這無疑是個棘手的問題。盡管如此，意大利的基本預算仍小有盈余，這也就意味著刨除利息償還款項，政府的收入超過了支出，這也是衡量勒緊腰帶的藥方能否治愈赤字頑疾的關(guān)鍵指標。

????但從上個月開始，這種如意算盤似乎已經(jīng)過時了，因為意大利國債評級前景的下調(diào)意味著歐洲實力較弱的國家無法再繼續(xù)從中獲利。穆迪當時稱：

????就目前的價格來看，意大利國債是否能繼續(xù)激發(fā)市場的胃口還是個未知數(shù)。雖然今后的歐元區(qū)政策動向?qū)⒂欣诰徑馔顿Y者顧慮并穩(wěn)定集資成本，但也有可能出現(xiàn)事與愿違的結(jié)局。不管結(jié)果如何，展望未來，相比金融危機前，投資者區(qū)別對待歐元區(qū)債務(wù)國的態(tài)度將更加明顯，使意大利這樣負債高于平均水平的歐元區(qū)國家處于不利位置。

????歐洲決策者們這周將再次碰頭。有跡象表明，討論的主要議題是控制危機規(guī)模。他們眼下正在商討如何削減希臘債務(wù)規(guī)模，而不是簡單地延長償還期。這一轉(zhuǎn)變值得歡迎。不過，除非全球大批債券商實行債轉(zhuǎn)股，這場危機難以真正結(jié)束。

????與此同時，大家可能情不自禁地產(chǎn)生這樣一種感覺：目前意大利在市場上的遭遇與2008年初夏房利美的遭遇的擠兌如出一轍——事到臨頭，誰也無法輕松逃脫、全身而退。如果市場繼續(xù)冷落意大利和西班牙國債，再加上銀行股繼續(xù)下滑，歐洲將遭遇更加嚴重的銀行擠兌，且債務(wù)違約將大行其道。

????令人慶幸的就是這次危機的步伐明顯放慢了很多。但是不管歐洲領(lǐng)導人如何作為，疼痛在所難免，而且人人有份。

????The euro hit $1.41, down a nickel from its recent high just ahead of the July 4 holiday here. Big European financial companies, ranging from Deutsche Bank (DB) of Germany and Barclays (BCS) of the U.K. to Unicredit of Italy, saw their shares drop 6%-8%.

????The selloff started last week with a flight from government bonds issued by weaker European states. Italian and Spanish government bonds are trading at more than double the interest rates being paid on German government debt -- the highest spreads since the euro started trading a dozen years ago.

????The plunge of weaker-country government bond prices raises new fears about the health of European banks, which are big holders of sovereign debt. The selloff comes just ahead of the release of the results of the latest round of European bank stress tests.

????While European policymakers are hoping that the tests will ease fears about the health of the banking system, the plunge of Italian government bond prices in recent days throws a new wrench into that plan.

????Only a month ago Italy looked financially stretched but probably safe, as investors focused on whether Spain could survive an expected market test.

????Italy has a famously dysfunctional government and a big debt load, which is obviously problematic in a world of slow growth and overextended banks. Yet it has been running a small primary budget surplus, meaning government revenue exceeds spending excluding interest payments – a key measure of whether belt tightening can help cure fiscal ills.

????But that brand of wishful thinking seems to have gone out of style last month, when a downgrade of Italy's debt-rating outlook signaled that the weaker European states will no longer get the benefit of the doubt. As Moody's said at the time:

????The continued stability of market demand for Italy's debt is uncertain at current yields. Although future policy actions within the euro area could reduce investors' concerns and stabilize funding costs, the opposite is also possible. In any event, going forward, investors appear likely to differentiate more among euro area sovereign borrowers than they did prior to the financial crisis, to the disadvantage of euro area countries with higher-than-average debt burdens, like Italy.

????European policymakers are meeting again this week, and there are signs they are getting their heads around the size of the crisis. They are now discussing moves that would cut Greece's debt burden rather than simply lengthening the payback period, which is a welcome shift. The will have to be many bondholder haircuts all over the world before this crisis finally ends.

????At the same time, it is hard to escape the feeling that the market's turning on Italy is like the run on Fannie Mae in the early summer of 2008 – the moment at which it becomes clear that the scope of the crisis won't allow any easy escape. If the market keeps shunning Italian and Spanish debt and bank stocks keep falling, Europe will face more damaging bank runs and a disorderly default on someone's debt will become almost unavoidable.

????The endgame may not come quite as quickly this time round, for which we can be glad. But no matter what Europe's leaders do, it seems clear that there is going to be no shortage of pain for everyone to share.