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穆迪降低美國(guó)評(píng)級(jí),共和黨人欣喜若狂

穆迪降低美國(guó)評(píng)級(jí),共和黨人欣喜若狂

Colin Barr 2011-07-18
7月13日,有賴于唯恐政府不亂的國(guó)會(huì)共和黨人,我們到達(dá)到了一個(gè)全新的、令人望而生畏的里程碑。

????穆迪將美國(guó)3A信用評(píng)級(jí)列于可能下調(diào)的觀察名單,并做出了如下解釋:“短期違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)雖小,但在不斷加大”。

????Moody's put the United States' triple-A credit rating on review for a possible downgrade, citing a "small but rising risk of a short-lived default."

領(lǐng)導(dǎo)真空

????白宮與國(guó)會(huì)共和黨人之間就提升美國(guó)債務(wù)上限的會(huì)談破裂后,穆迪(Moody's)隨即發(fā)布了評(píng)級(jí)下調(diào)的警告。米奇?邁克奈爾,這位聲稱是共和黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人肯塔基州參議員稱,只要奧巴馬總統(tǒng)在任,此事就不會(huì)有任何進(jìn)展。另外一位,明尼蘇達(dá)州代表米歇爾?巴克曼(圖右)則說,我們真正需要的不是提升債務(wù)上限,而是一位有“鈦合金脊柱”的總統(tǒng)。什么意思,不懂。

????地球上的共和黨,有人在家嗎?無(wú)人應(yīng)聲。這也說明改善美國(guó)預(yù)算赤字和增加財(cái)政收入仍只是一些人一廂情愿的想法。

????穆迪當(dāng)然無(wú)法樂觀。它說之所以納入降級(jí)觀察名單是因?yàn)椤皞鶆?wù)上限問題可能導(dǎo)致美國(guó)無(wú)法償還債券和票據(jù)的利息或本金”。該評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)還表示,利息違約的可能性“不大,但不可…小視”。

????美國(guó)財(cái)政部表示,如果8月2日之前14.29萬(wàn)億美元的債務(wù)上限仍未能得到提升,政府將彈盡糧絕。果真如此,美國(guó)債務(wù)違約在所難免,由此將引發(fā)美元的拋售以及聯(lián)邦借貸成本永久性的提高,由此引發(fā)的后果將是災(zāi)難性的,相信一切有識(shí)之士都不會(huì)否認(rèn)這一點(diǎn)。

????然而,茶黨人士,而非神智正常的人,是眼下華盛頓所謂大辯論的主角。有充分的理由相信,很多茶黨人士都是抱著唯恐政府不亂的心態(tài)。畢竟,他們期待的就是看一場(chǎng)好戲。

????美國(guó)財(cái)政部表示,“穆迪評(píng)估提醒的很及時(shí),國(guó)會(huì)需盡快采取措施避免發(fā)生債務(wù)違約并通過大幅度赤字削減方案”。不幸的是,我們完全有理由相信,這一警告最終將遭遇選擇性失聰。

????The move comes after talks broke down between the White House and Republicans in Congress over raising the U.S. debt ceiling. One so-called Republican leader, Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, said progress was impossible with Barack Obama as president. Another, Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota (pictured at right), said what we really need is not an increase in the debt ceiling but a president with a "titanium spine," whatever that means.

????Earth to Republicans, anyone home? No answer. Which suggests those awaiting progress on the bloated U.S. budget and shrunken federal tax intake are engaging in wishful thinking.

????Moody's certainly did not seem to be heartened. It said the review "is prompted by the possibility that the debt limit will not be raised in time to prevent a missed payment of interest or principal on outstanding bonds and notes." The rating agency said the probability of a default on interest is "low but no longer ... de minimis."

????The Treasury has said the government will run out of money Aug. 2 if the $14.29 trillion debt ceiling isn't raised. That could put the U.S. in default on its obligations, a state of affairs that all sane people agree would be disastrous, raising the risk of flight from the dollar and permanently higher federal borrowing costs.

????But Tea Partiers, rather than sane people, are a major force in the so-called debate in Washington right now, and there is every reason to believe that many of them would like to see the government blown up because it would make for a memorable spectacle.

????"Moody's assessment is a timely reminder of the need for Congress to move quickly to avoid defaulting on the country's obligations and agree upon a substantial deficit reduction package," Treasury said. Unfortunately there is every reason to believe that warning will fall on deaf ears.

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