????三伏天到了，股市也多了很多悲觀的聲音。事實(shí)上，事情并沒有看上去那么糟。雖說現(xiàn)在市場仍然有可能重現(xiàn)“約翰?雅各布?拉斯各布時(shí)刻”【拉斯各布曾任杜邦公司和通用汽車公司的財(cái)務(wù)主管，后出資修建了紐約帝國大廈。上世紀(jì)20年代，他非?？春霉墒?，1929年他在接受《婦女家庭雜志》（Ladies Home Journal）采訪時(shí)信心十足地鼓勵(lì)美國人全民炒股，并表示只要炒了股，人人都能致富。然而這篇文章發(fā)表后才兩個(gè)月，華爾街即宣告崩盤?！g注】，但從本周的市場動(dòng)向來看，眼下仍然有五條看好股市的理由。

1.交易曲線表明股市向好

????“技術(shù)流”的股市分析師往往三言兩語就能用術(shù)語把你繞得云山霧罩的，比如什么“棄嬰形態(tài)”（e the Abandoned Baby formation），一會(huì)兒又是什么“吊死鬼形態(tài)”（the Hanging Man）。你完全不必理會(huì)這些嚇人的術(shù)語，只需要理解一件事就好：雖說股市交易數(shù)據(jù)代表了所有股民的心理預(yù)期，不過許多對沖基金的交易員和經(jīng)紀(jì)公司的策略師們往往會(huì)著重研究其中的一個(gè)特定數(shù)據(jù)——200日移動(dòng)平均線。這樣做是有充分的理由的。如果廣域市場指數(shù)結(jié)結(jié)實(shí)實(shí)地掉到200日移動(dòng)平均線以下，則標(biāo)志著市場將長期走跌。不過只要市場位于200天移動(dòng)平均線以上，那么一般來說就會(huì)出現(xiàn)牛市。6月份的交易就是在考驗(yàn)紐交所綜指、納斯達(dá)克綜指和標(biāo)普500指數(shù)是否能夠堅(jiān)守200天移動(dòng)平均線。市場通過了這次考驗(yàn)，在6月底出現(xiàn)了回彈。上次市場跨到200日移動(dòng)平均線以上時(shí)正好是在一年前，于是市場從9月到12月間呈現(xiàn)了一個(gè)大牛市。

2.我們以前也經(jīng)歷過這種時(shí)期

????我們以前也經(jīng)歷過和眼下十分類似的時(shí)期，那時(shí)泡沫剛剛破碎，股市損失慘重，經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)曠日持久，似乎經(jīng)濟(jì)永遠(yuǎn)沒有再度起飛的一天。眼下的一切以乎都是當(dāng)年的重演，只不過這次的受害者是房奴們，而不是短線投資人。還記得互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破裂后的那幾年都發(fā)生了什么吧。市場在2002年觸底，然后略有回升，在2003年夏天又陷入熊市。隨后股市在2003年底強(qiáng)勢反彈。2004和2005年的走勢也和2003年如出一轍。每次大盤都比以前漲了一點(diǎn)，最后每年都會(huì)產(chǎn)生8%到10%的收益。

????歷史是否還會(huì)重演？去年的股市走向和2003年大同小異，華爾街的某些分析師，包括巴克萊資本公司（Barclay's Capital）都提醒客戶，這種模式今年有望繼續(xù)下去。

3.股價(jià)正便宜

????可能你并不是那種通過預(yù)測市場模式來進(jìn)行交易的投資人，那也無妨，咱們再來看看基本面。目前標(biāo)普500指數(shù)企業(yè)的市值僅為過去一年收益的15倍，是1994年以來美國股市最便宜的時(shí)期。如果往前看，現(xiàn)在標(biāo)普500指數(shù)企業(yè)的市值僅為2011年預(yù)期凈收入的13.6倍，因此眼下正是建倉的好時(shí)候。更何況市場已經(jīng)知道了第一季度的業(yè)績，第二季度的業(yè)績也已大體明了，因?yàn)橛行┕疽呀?jīng)搶先匯報(bào)了業(yè)績，其中絕大公司的表現(xiàn)都優(yōu)于預(yù)期。而從市盈率來看，現(xiàn)在的股價(jià)是自1985年末以來最低的。打個(gè)比方：如果你當(dāng)時(shí)買了一只標(biāo)普500指數(shù)基金的話，你現(xiàn)在就坐擁530%的收益了。

4.油價(jià)正在下降。

????本周美國的汽油價(jià)格為每加侖3.62美元，比去年同期貴了0.85美元，但仍比今年四月份油價(jià)最高的時(shí)候便宜了0.28美元。曾有專家預(yù)測，在美國獨(dú)立日（the Independence Day，7月4日——譯注）前后，油價(jià)或?qū)⑼黄泼考觼?美元關(guān)口，但這種情況并沒出現(xiàn)，油價(jià)不升反降。汽油價(jià)格上漲會(huì)抑制消費(fèi)性支出，反之，汽油價(jià)格下降則有利于促進(jìn)消費(fèi)支出。原油期貨一度在五月份爬升到114美元的高位，但自那時(shí)起至今已下跌了16%。另外，美國能源部（The Department of Energy）近日決定釋放3，064萬桶戰(zhàn)略儲(chǔ)備原油，目前對這些石油的競標(biāo)剛剛結(jié)束。到本月月底，至少部分戰(zhàn)略儲(chǔ)備原油就會(huì)化身汽油，登陸美國的各加油站，使汽油價(jià)格繼續(xù)下降，進(jìn)而刺激消費(fèi)性支出。

5.消費(fèi)需求正在上漲

????本月的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)雖然依然不景氣，但其中也有一個(gè)亮點(diǎn)：消費(fèi)信貸支出有所增長。這是2008年8月以來的第二次。如果人們刷信用卡刷得比前多了，這多多少少證明了他們對自己的財(cái)務(wù)情況有足夠的自信，因此可以貸上一點(diǎn)款去旅游，或者只是單純地在食品雜貨店刷卡多買一些東西。分析人士認(rèn)為，這次消費(fèi)信貸支出的上漲或許與五月份的高油價(jià)有關(guān)。不過如果縱向比較一下，你就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)，僅就貨幣債務(wù)來看，消費(fèi)者現(xiàn)在的處境要比前幾年好了一些。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（the Federal Reserve）指出，美國人均債務(wù)支出占可支配收入的百分比已經(jīng)降至11.5%，這是16年來的最低水平，而且比2007年10月份創(chuàng)下13.9%的最高紀(jì)錄有了明顯的下降。

????說到底，當(dāng)然眼下也有一些值得擔(dān)心的事【如債務(wù)限額、歐洲的債務(wù)違約，另外新一季的真人秀《學(xué)徒》（The Apprentice）也上映了】，但你仍不妨對股市保持一些信心。雖說股市和美國經(jīng)濟(jì)沒有飛速恢復(fù)，但這并不代表以后股市也不會(huì)出現(xiàn)增長。眼下的低迷只是意味著經(jīng)濟(jì)中終于沒有泡沫了。

????譯者：樸成奎

????The dog days of summer have brought with them a lot of whimpering about the stock market. The truth is, things aren't as bad as they seem. At the risk of having a John Jakob Raskob moment, especially in light of the action this week, here are five reasons to be optimistic about the stock market right now.

1. The trading charts say so.

????Technical analysis can quickly lead you into a rabbit hole of terminology like the Abandoned Baby formation or the Hanging Man. Feel free to ignore that stuff until you write your Wall Street thriller. You just need to understand one thing: while stock-trading data represents the sum of everyone's opinion on the market, many hedge fund traders and brokerage strategists study one piece of that data in particular—the 200-day moving average. For good reason. When the broad market indices fall firmly below the 200-day average, it signals an extended bearish period ahead. As long as the market is above it, things generally are biased to go higher. Trading in June was mostly an extended test of support at the 200-day moving average for the NYSE and Nasdaq composites as well as the S&P 500. The market passed that test, bouncing upward at the end of June. The last time we moved off the 200-day moving average was just under a year ago, when we had a great September to December bull run.

2. We've been through this before.

????A bubble that bursts, big losses in the stock market, and a long economic recovery that never seems to quite get off the ground. This isn't the first time we've seen that scenario, except the victims this time have been homeowners, not day traders. Recall what occurred in the years after the dotcom bubble burst. The market bottomed out in 2002, then recovered modestly before hitting the summer doldrums in 2003. But then stocks rallied strongly in the last quarter of that year. The market did the same in 2004. Then again in 2005. Each time was a step higher that ended up generating 8% to 10% gains each year.

????Could past be prologue? Certainly last year's stock market acted like 2003, and some analysts on Wall Street, including Barclay's Capital, are advising clients to expect the pattern to continue this year.

3. Stocks are cheap.

????Maybe you're not sold on market patterns as a predictor of future action. That's okay. Let's look at fundamentals instead. Right now, the companies in the S&P 500 are trading at just 15-times trailing-year earnings, the cheapest the market has been since 1994. Looking ahead, the S&P 500 is telling us stocks are even more of a bargain, trading at just 13.6 times 2011 expected net income. And that's with the market already knowing the first quarter's results and having a good sense of how the second quarter played out, since the vast majority of early reporting companies have beaten expectations. By the forward P/E measure, stocks are the cheapest now since the end of 1985. If you invested in an S&P 500 fund then, you'd be sitting on a 530% gain right now. Just saying.

4. Oil and gas prices are falling.

????At $3.62 a gallon nationally this week, gasoline is 85 cents a gallon pricier than it was a year ago. But compared to April, when the gallon price peaked this year, gas is 28 cents cheaper and well away from the $5 gas that pundits predicted would ruin our Independence Day. Just as rising gas prices hurt consumer spending, falling gas prices help. Oil futures have slid 16% since cresting at $114 a barrel in May. And guess what? The Department of Energy just finished accepting bids on the 30.64 million barrels of oil being released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. By the end of the month, at least some of that will be landing at filling stations and affecting gasoline prices where it really counts: in your wallet.

5. Consumer demand is growing.

????There was one bright spot in the otherwise gloomy economic data that started this month: Consumer credit spending increased for just the second time since August 2008. When people charge more on their credit cards, it is a small sign they feel good enough about their financial picture that they can take on a little more debt, commit to a vacation, or simply buy more at the grocery store. Critics contend that uptick could have been spurred by May's high gas prices. But take a broader look and you'll see consumers are in a better position now than they have been in years, as far as their monetary obligations go. According to the Federal Reserve, the percentage of debt service payments to disposable income has eased to 11.5%. That's the lowest level in 16 years and down notably from the peak of 13.9% in October 2007.

????The bottom line: Sure there are things to worry about (the debt ceiling, defaults in Europe, another season of The Apprentice), but keep some perspective. Just because the stock market and the economy aren't rushing at a breakneck pace doesn't mean there isn't growth ahead. It may just mean that, finally, we are starting to live in a bubble-free economy.