????今天，萬眾矚目的美國債務(wù)上限提升草案終于獲得通過，著實讓市場為之興奮了一陣，然而在經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇乏力的大環(huán)境下，草案的最終細(xì)節(jié)和實施方案才是左右復(fù)蘇前景的關(guān)鍵所在。

????經(jīng)過了數(shù)周的政治角力，奧巴馬總統(tǒng)和國會領(lǐng)袖們在周日深夜達(dá)成了一致意見——從而避免了違約。參眾兩院將于晚些時候進(jìn)行投票表決，但是很顯然，鬧劇還并未謝幕。

????基于赤字削減計劃，華盛頓已就如何實施稅收和開支方案激辯了數(shù)月。然而，由于只涉及削減，不涉及增稅，因此該計劃對GDP增長的影響仍是個未知數(shù)，而且自從2010年夏天以來，GDP一直增長步履蹣跚。目前的問題在于，計劃執(zhí)行后，第一，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)到底會脆弱到什么程度，第二，如此大規(guī)模的削減是否會使經(jīng)濟(jì)超級疲軟期進(jìn)一步延長。

????提案將分兩個階段將美國債務(wù)上限總計提高2.4萬億美元。首先，未來10年政府將削減開支9，170億美元。然后，國會將成立特別委員會來謀求剩下的1.5萬億美元赤字的出路，他們有可能會拿稅收和社會保障計劃開刀。

????有跡象表明，為了計劃的順利實施，國會議員一直都在未雨綢繆，避免意外的阻撓。然而鑒于過去幾周所上演的政治鬧劇，誰又忍心責(zé)備他們呢？如果特別委員會最終完成的削減任務(wù)低于1.2萬億美元，或者國會不采納其削減建議，那么取而代之的將是一個預(yù)設(shè)的支出削減方案。該削減方案將波及軍事開支以及醫(yī)療保險。

????盡管用心良苦，但該計劃對于目前疲軟的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇只字未提。誠然，大部分削減措施要到2013年才正式生效，也不會影響針對低收入家庭、社會保險和醫(yī)療援助的福利計劃。這樣，在政府開支縮減之前，經(jīng)濟(jì)仍有喘息的時間。政府開支占美國GDP的20%，是僅次于消費的美國經(jīng)濟(jì)第二大生力軍。

????但從最近GDP增長的報道來看，經(jīng)濟(jì)何時會復(fù)蘇已變得越來越難以捉摸。據(jù)咨詢公司Global IHS Insight的預(yù)報顯示，第二季度，經(jīng)濟(jì)僅增長了1.3%，而且前幾個季度的數(shù)據(jù)表明經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長和復(fù)蘇遠(yuǎn)比預(yù)期乏力。在過去的6個月中，GDP的年增速僅為0.8%。

????下半年經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的前景正急劇黯淡。即使2013年美國經(jīng)濟(jì)不再低迷，恐怕在此之前出現(xiàn)實質(zhì)性復(fù)蘇的可能性依然很小。

????債務(wù)上限的提升暫時讓國會如釋重負(fù)，然而壓力將再次回到美聯(lián)儲身上，它將再一次面臨激活經(jīng)濟(jì)的重任。也許國會應(yīng)該考慮將第三輪量化寬松計劃與此次債務(wù)上限上調(diào)方案進(jìn)行捆綁，以備不時之需。

????Markets today initially cheered the rough sketches of a highly anticipated deal to raise the U.S. government's debt limit, but how the nation's fragile economic recovery responds will depend on the final details of the plan and how it eventually rolls out.

????After weeks of political wrangling, President Obama and congressional leaders reached a deal late Sunday night – thereby avoiding a default. The Senate and House are expected to vote on a plan later today, but needless to say, the drama isn't over yet.

????The deficit-reduction plan sets the stage for months of debates over how Washington taxes and spends. And it's uncertain how a plan centered on spending cuts without tax increases will impact GDP growth, which has faltered since the summer of 2010. The question now is how much weaker could things get and could the scale of spending cuts prolong the incredibly soft patch?

????An outline of the deal would raise the debt ceiling by $2.4 trillion in two stages. First, it would cut spending by $917 billion over the next 10 years. Then, a special committee would be tasked to find another $1.5 trillion in savings, which could come through tax overhauls and changes to social programs.

????It appears lawmakers have tried to avoid any unforeseen hiccups to the plan. And who can blame them, given the political disaster that's played out over the past few weeks? If the committee doesn't find at least $1.2 trillion in savings, or Congress doesn't adopt its proposals, a pre-set array of spending cuts would kick in. This could include cuts in military spending and Medicare payments to health-care providers.

????However well intentioned, the plan doesn't address the extent of today's weak economic recovery. To be sure, the bulk of spending cuts wouldn't kick in until 2013 and wouldn't affect programs for low-income households, Social Security or Medicaid. Surely this gives the economy some time to heal before reeling in government spending, which currently makes up about 20% of GDP and the largest share of the U.S. economy next to consumption.

????But judging by the latest reports on GDP growth, it has become increasingly uncertain when the economy will really starting picking up. During the second quarter, it grew by only 1.3% and revisions to previous quarters show a deeper recession and a weaker recovery than previously portrayed, according to forecasting firm Global IHS Insight. For the past six months, GDP grew at an annual rate of only 0.8%.

????Prospects for a pickup during the second half of the year are fading fast. Even if the economy is no longer depressed by 2013, it will likely just have started growing in any meaningful way.

????So while Congress might be breathing a slight sigh of relief once the debt ceiling is raised, this will likely put pressure on the Fed to act in an effort to – once again – jumpstart the economy. Perhaps Congress needs to pair this debt deal with a back-up QE3 plan?