黃金

??? 不可否認(rèn)，在這場關(guān)于提升14.3萬億美元債務(wù)上限的鬧劇當(dāng)中并沒有什么真正的贏家。承認(rèn)與否，最大的輸家是我們自己。美國政府的降級將導(dǎo)致借貸成本的增加，這必將波及一切與借貸有關(guān)的業(yè)務(wù)，例如房貸及車貸，最終加劇消費者和商業(yè)的壓力。

????目前，對投資者來說，最顯而易見的避風(fēng)港也許就是黃金。自從共和黨的議案投票推遲后，金價飆升至1，634美元/盎司，創(chuàng)歷史新高。歐洲債務(wù)危機的推動已使這種貴金屬兌美元的比率在去年一年中上升了33%。

????盡管提升債務(wù)上限（不管是否會發(fā)生以及什么時候發(fā)生）可能最終能在一定程度上平息市場的緊張氣氛，但是金價的漲勢不太可能終結(jié)。提高債務(wù)上限意味著增發(fā)美元，美元將面臨進(jìn)一步貶值的壓力，為了保值，投資者將投奔黃金的懷抱。

Gold?

??It's undeniable that there are few winners in the frenzied debate over raising the nation's $14.3 trillion debt limit. However you look at it, the big losers are -- well, us. A downgrade of the U.S. government would result in higher borrowing costs for everything from home to car loans, further straining consumers and businesses.

????Perhaps the most obvious place for investors to put money now is in the yellow metal. Gold jumped to a record $1,634 per ounce after the vote was postponed on the Republican plan. Helped by debt troubles in Europe, the precious metal has climbed 33% against the U.S. dollar over the past year.

????And while raising the debt ceiling (if and whenever that should happen) could finally calm markets some, gold's rally likely won't end. A higher debt ceiling would mean more U.S. dollars sloshing around the economy, which could effectively put downward pressure on the greenback and keep gold on the minds of investors looking for a decent store of value.

格恩西島 （及其他3A評級主權(quán)國）

????格恩西島是標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾（Standard & Poor）所列的19個3A評級的主權(quán)國之一，這個位于諾曼底海峽的富裕島國也許很快就被投資者視為資產(chǎn)?？康谋茱L(fēng)港，而且是一個比美國更安全的避風(fēng)港。

????標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾和穆迪投資者服務(wù)（Moody's Investor Services）已將美國列入3A級降級評價觀察名單。由于美國可能會喪失其零風(fēng)險的地位，投資者開始審視其他擁有優(yōu)異評級的主權(quán)國，其中包括：澳大利亞、加拿大、德國以及荷蘭。

????就可供投資的3A級資產(chǎn)數(shù)量而言，美國一直遙遙領(lǐng)先于其他國家。美國擁有超過11萬億美元的未償債券，有著無可比擬的廣泛性和流動性；而其他國家的3A級政府債券總共不過7萬億美元。

????不管怎么樣，投資者始終是朝前看的。有報道顯示，一些投資已經(jīng)離開美國這個避風(fēng)港，流向英國、加拿大、澳大利亞以及瑞典證券市場。

????格恩西島可能將是下一個目標(biāo)。

Guernsey (and other triple-A sovereigns)

??? As one of 19 sovereigns rated triple-A by Standard & Poor's, this tiny affluent Channel Island off the Coast of Normandy could soon be considered a safer place for investors to park their assets than the U.S.

????S&P and Moody's Investor Services have placed the U.S. government under watch for a possible downgrade of its triple-A Treasury bonds. With the nation possibly losing its risk-free status, investors have been eyeing other sovereigns with stellar ratings as alternatives. Among them: Australia, Canada, Germany and the Netherlands.

????But the pool of investable AAA-rated assets around the world is nowhere near as deep as that of the U.S. The nation offers the widest and most liquid range of such assets with more than $11 trillion outstanding, compared with roughly $7 trillion of all other outstanding triple-A rated government paper.

????Nevertheless, investors are looking ahead, with some safe-haven flows reportedly already moving to the U.K., Canadian, Australian and Swedish bond markets.

????Guernsey might just be next.

公司債券

??? 少數(shù)擁有高信用評級的公司有可能因禍得福，從這場債務(wù)危機中獲益。

????一些墨守投資規(guī)則的資產(chǎn)經(jīng)理只會投資3A級債券。如果評級機構(gòu)降級美國信用，這些投資者將拋售美國債券，轉(zhuǎn)投3A級公司債券的懷抱，例如微軟（Microsoft）、強生（Johnson & Johnson）以及?？松梨冢‥xxon Mobil）。

????誠然，一些專家們擔(dān)心美國政府的信用降級可能同樣會導(dǎo)致美國公司的信用降級。但是到目前為止，有跡象顯示，一些高盈利公司（金融公司除外）使公司債券成為部分投資組合經(jīng)理中意的市場。

????“標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾表單中已公布數(shù)據(jù)的企業(yè)（不包括金融企業(yè)）凈收入增長率約為20%”，明尼那波尼斯州（Minneapolis）基金公司哥倫比亞管理集團(tuán)（Columbia Management）的一位投資組合經(jīng)理在上周三向路透社（Reuters）透露，“公司債券是目前最安全的避難所。當(dāng)然你得有所選擇，一般我們并不投資金融企業(yè)?！?/p>

Corporate bonds

????A handful of companies with top credit ratings may actually gain from everyone else's pain.

????Investment rules that apply to some asset managers require them to hold only triple-A rated debt. If rating agencies downgrade the U.S., this will trigger a sell-off in Treasuries, leading investors to triple-A corporate bonds, such as those from Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson and Exxon Mobil.

????To be sure, some experts wonder if a downgrade to the U.S. government would lead to downgrades of American companies. But so far, it appears that stellar corporate earnings (excluding financial corporations) have made the corporate bond market an attractive place for some portfolio managers.

????"Net income growth is about 20% for those in the S&P (excluding financials) that have reported, " a portfolio manager at Columbia Management in Minneapolis told Reuters on Wednesday. "The best place to be right now is corporate bonds. Of course you have to pick your spots, and where we're not generally investing is financials."

瑞士法郎

????提升14.3萬億美元債務(wù)上限的鬧劇使得投資者們更傾向于選擇低風(fēng)險的國家來進(jìn)行投資，這其中就包括瑞士。

????上周四，盡管閉門磋商長達(dá)數(shù)小時，但顯然提升債務(wù)上限議案不會提交眾議院投票表決。隨后，瑞士法郎延續(xù)了該月的升值勢頭，單月連續(xù)升值天數(shù)創(chuàng)17年之最。

????前一個交易日，瑞郎創(chuàng)下歷史新高，上周五瑞士法郎兌美元也高達(dá)79.99生丁兌換1美元。過去的一年中，人們對瑞郎的青睞使得其對歐元的匯價上升了24%，對美元則上升了12%。

????由于歐元一直受歐洲債務(wù)危機拖累，瑞郎有望在未來一段時間繼續(xù)成為投資者的避難所。

Swiss Franc??

????The frenzied negotiations over raising the $14.3 trillion U.S. debt limit have encouraged investors to put their money in low-risk locales, including Switzerland.

????The Swiss franc extended its longest monthly rally in 17 years after it became apparent on Thursday that there would be no U.S. House of Representatives vote over a deal following several hours of close-door meetings.

????The franc touched 79.99 centimes per dollar, after reaching an all-time high the previous day. For the past year the lure of the franc has pushed up its value by 24% against the euro and 12% against the U.S. dollar.

????With the euro under pressure amid the region's ongoing debt crisis, the franc looks to be a safe alternative for investors for some time.

國債

??? 美國國債在此次債務(wù)上限之爭中處于風(fēng)暴中心。盡管如此，美國國債仍是世界最安全的投資之一。根據(jù)目前的孳息率，即使評級機構(gòu)降級美國信用評級，美國國債可能對投資者仍然具有吸引力。

????有人認(rèn)為，由于擔(dān)心美國違約，或者即便債務(wù)上限得以提升，美國信用的降級也將導(dǎo)致美國深受打擊，投資者將拋售美國國債。但是，目前10年期國債孳息率仍低于3%，表明投資者并沒有喪失對美國國債的胃口。

????誠然， 投資者一直在少量拋售1-3月期的國債債券。但是國債孳息率，這個與售價成反比的指標(biāo)，并沒有大幅攀升，仍處在本月波動的低谷。

????即便美國最終拿到的是2A而不是3A評級，但美國仍是美國，不是希臘。

Treasuries?

????U.S. Treasuries are at the heart of the tumultuous debate over raising the debt ceiling. Nonetheless, U.S. debt is still among the world's safest investments. Judging by yields thus far, it appears Treasury bonds could continue being attractive to investors even if rating agencies downgrade the U.S.

????Some have been expecting investors to sell Treasuries out of fear that the nation would default or get hit with a ratings downgrade even if the debt ceiling is raised. However, yields on 10-year bonds are still below 3%, as investors' appetite for Treasuries hasn't faded very much.

????To be sure, there has been some modest selling in one and three-month Treasury bills. But yields, which move inversely to prices, haven't exactly surged and are still at the bottom of the month's range.