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美國(guó)信用評(píng)級(jí)下調(diào),新股上市紀(jì)錄流產(chǎn)

美國(guó)信用評(píng)級(jí)下調(diào),新股上市紀(jì)錄流產(chǎn)

Alex Konrad 2011-08-11
本周的IPO股前景低迷。大多數(shù)IPO股將選擇大幅抑價(jià)發(fā)行或擇日上市,股市刷新紀(jì)錄美夢(mèng)成空。

????這一周本應(yīng)是創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的一周。本周原本有多達(dá)12支IPO股計(jì)劃上市,有望刷新華爾街單周IPO數(shù)量紀(jì)錄,自金融危機(jī)以來這樣的機(jī)會(huì)也只是第二次出現(xiàn)而已。然而,隨著標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾(Standard & Poor)下調(diào)美國(guó)債務(wù)評(píng)級(jí),股市暴跌,一切都化作了泡影。這個(gè)夏天,原本是聲勢(shì)浩大的IPO市場(chǎng)可能最終只剩一聲嘆息。

????一些公司鐵了心要在本周上市,但是這些少數(shù)派勇者所付出的代價(jià)便是抑價(jià)發(fā)行。IPO專業(yè)機(jī)構(gòu)復(fù)興資本(Renaissance Capital)的報(bào)告顯示,上周和本周本應(yīng)有望成為近幾年IPO市場(chǎng)來最為熱鬧的兩周。然而,上周的債務(wù)危機(jī)讓這一希望胎死腹中。而上周五標(biāo)普的降級(jí)舉措又將本周的希望打入冷宮??偛课挥谏虾5膭P賽生物產(chǎn)業(yè)公司(Cathay Industrial Biotech)是一家二酸和生物燃料生產(chǎn)商。該公司的靠山HBM生物基金(HBM BioVentures Ltd.)稱,凱賽已經(jīng)打消了上市的計(jì)劃,轉(zhuǎn)而通過其他渠道來進(jìn)行融資。這也就意味著華爾街要等到秋天才能再次發(fā)力。

????本周其他11支IPO股的前景也是喜憂參半;有一些仍可能上市。凱備公司(Carbonite),這家在技術(shù)界響當(dāng)當(dāng)?shù)脑诰€備份服務(wù)商正處于進(jìn)退兩難的境地。如果公司推遲上市,推遲的原因不在于公司自身的問題,而在于市場(chǎng)的急劇波動(dòng)。復(fù)興資本負(fù)責(zé)全球IPO基金的委托人琳達(dá)?克里安說,凱備上市的可能性非常大。

????在目前這種混亂局勢(shì)下上市需要付出一定的代價(jià)??死锇舱J(rèn)為公司上市時(shí)不得不抑價(jià)發(fā)行,因此實(shí)際融資量要比預(yù)計(jì)的少很多。除此之外,公司還面臨認(rèn)購(gòu)額不足的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),因?yàn)橐坏┕景丛▋r(jià)發(fā)行,那么公司將不得不削減發(fā)行股票總數(shù)。美國(guó)資金抵押公司(American Capital Mortgage, MTGE)是上周唯一上市的IPO股。該公司原計(jì)劃發(fā)行1,750萬股,融資3.5億美元,但最終只發(fā)行了800萬股,融資1.6億美元。

????本周最大的兩支可能上市的IPO股都來自于能源領(lǐng)域。其中,SandRidge Permian Trust獨(dú)占鰲頭,預(yù)期融資超過6億美元。Enduro Royalty Trust預(yù)期融資3億美元??死锇舱J(rèn)為這兩家IPO股的收益預(yù)期尚能維持其融資態(tài)勢(shì)。

????有一些原計(jì)劃上市的IPO股已經(jīng)決定推遲上市,而且可能將再次跳票。會(huì)員制醫(yī)療保健服務(wù)公司W(wǎng)hiteGlove Health已經(jīng)推遲至周三上市,但不要抱太大的希望。致力于員工福利的WageWorks公司壓縮了價(jià)格范圍,使其本周上市的希望更加渺茫。因此,臨陣脫逃的IPO股可能會(huì)越來越多。

????在經(jīng)過8月的磨難之后,團(tuán)購(gòu)網(wǎng)站Groupon公司,游戲公司Zynga以及其他社會(huì)媒體公司仍可能將在今后陸續(xù)上市??死锇舱f目前的市場(chǎng)局勢(shì)還不足以阻擋他們上市的步伐——就算他們?cè)?月上市可能也無法達(dá)到預(yù)期的市場(chǎng)影響。此次降級(jí)舉措讓IPO狠狠地吃了回閉門羹。唉,Dunkin' Donuts (美國(guó)連鎖餐飲店DNKN),你真是趕上了個(gè)好時(shí)候。

????It was supposed to be a milestone week. For only the second time since the recession began, Wall Street was hoping to crack an IPO record with as many as 12 new possible listings. Now, with Standard & Poor's downgrade of U.S. debt pummeling the market, that hope is long gone. This summer's IPO market is likely to go out with a whimper -- just as it was supposed to be roaring.

????Some companies will forge ahead and list this week, but those brave few will have to do so knowing they are leaving money on the table. According to reports by IPO experts Renaissance Capital, each of the last two weeks had the potential to be the busiest in years. Last week's default crisis helped kill that prospect then. S&P's Friday-night action has now claimed this week as a casualty too. Cathay Industrial Biotech, a Shanghai-based diacid and bio-fuel producer, has pulled the plug on its scheduled opening to pursue alternative methods of financing, according to a release yesterday by its backer HBM BioVentures Ltd. That means Wall Street will have to wait until the fall for another shot.

????The outlook for the other planned 11 IPOs of the week is mixed; some may still go through. Carbonite, known to techies as a name-brand online backup provider, illustrates the dilemma. If it does postpone, it won't be because of weakness inside the company, but because the markets are simply too volatile. It is still the likeliest to go ahead according to Linda Killian, a Principal at Renaissance Capital who manages its global IPO fund.

????Listing despite the turmoil has its downsides, though. Killian notes that companies will have to live with less than they could have raised otherwise, listing at a lower price to get the deal done. Moreover, companies run the risk of undersubscribing when they do set a listing price, forcing some to slash the number of shares they offer. American Capital Mortgage (MTGE), the only IPO to go through last week, had originally filed to raise $350 million on 17.5 million shares, but ultimately offered only 8 million shares to raise $160 million.

????The two biggest scheduled IPOs for the week might both be able to make it to the market in the energy sector. SandRidge Permian Trust leads the pack with a potential to raise over $600 million. Enduro Royalty Trust, meanwhile, could raise over $300 million. Killian considers both IPOs yield plays that might continue simply to raise capital while they can.

????Some scheduled IPOs have already been delayed and may be put off yet again. WhiteGlove Health, a membership-based health care services company, has delayed to Wednesday, but don't hold your breath. WageWorks, an employee-benefits provider, had to slash its price range to make an initial offering this week even remotely plausible. More defections are likely to come.

????After the misery of August, banner days may still be ahead for Groupon, Zynga and other social media companies coming down the pipeline. Killian says that the market would have to get much worse to slow them down -- even though they might not make the impact they would have if they'd listed in July. The downgrade looks to have slammed shut the IPO window. Exhale, Dunkin' Donuts (DNKN). You made it just in time.

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