頂級投資人回顧股市驚魂一周
周三:道指下跌4.6% ????周二晚上他睡得安心一些。但是,周三來到辦公室,他卻看到了彭博(Bloomberg)終端上令人抓狂的數(shù)字。一夜之間,標普500指數(shù)期貨從1,170點跌至1,077點,跌幅達8%?!翱雌饋砭拖袷鞘澜缫狈鹑鹚固貨]有把話說完。他頓了頓,說:“我不該這么說的,抱歉。但是我開始想,也許我真的錯了?!?/p> ????在僅僅幾小時之內,他就從看好市場轉變?yōu)閼n慮不安。周三股市大跌,周四早盤開始回升。在周四股市上漲時,佛瑞斯特早就再次進入出手購買的狀態(tài)了。周三他再度減少指數(shù)看跌期權,并增持了其投資組合內的幾乎所有股票,增持金額近1,000萬美元。其中包括大牌公司如雪佛龍公司(Chevron)、馬拉松石油(Marathon Oil)、奧馳亞(Altria)、旅行家集團(The Travelers Companies)以及微軟(Microsoft)。他沒有時間選擇哪些才是自己最中意的公司。 ????周三下午的大部分時間股市都在回升,但是晚些時候再度跳水,當日收跌4.6%。佛瑞斯特非常惱火。他想,“也許我忽略了什么。因為市場的表現(xiàn)實在是太詭異了。除非是2008年,不然市場不會出現(xiàn)這么大的起伏。” ????周三結束時,佛瑞斯特已經(jīng)筋疲力盡。他已經(jīng)連續(xù)咆哮了兩天,不斷對手下的兩名分析師發(fā)號施令。當周標普500指數(shù)跌宕起伏,每日波動幅度達到4%以上。佛瑞斯特三周前就想和自己的家人一起去威斯康辛的綠湖度假,一直未能成行。 ????佛瑞斯特心底里覺得他的做法是對的。周二和周三佛瑞斯特在股票價格從年內高點 下滑約20%后買入。他知道美國經(jīng)濟形勢的變化并不像股票市場波動反映得那么劇烈。所以他回家休息了。那天晚上終于睡了個好覺。 周四:道指上漲4% ????周四股市高開,之后持續(xù)攀升。佛瑞斯特開始微笑?;鹳Y產(chǎn)中還有約15%的現(xiàn)金,所以他也不是完全壓注于股票。他仍持有一些指數(shù)看跌期權,以便在股市下滑的時候保護基金。但是佛瑞斯特感覺自己上周已經(jīng)完成了基金的目標:捕捉市場下跌的30%,市場上漲的60%。他說:“要做到這一點,你必須在市場接近底部的時候加倉 。但底部令人恐慌。”他認為手頭持有的優(yōu)質公司股票在未來市場艱難的時候會有不錯的表現(xiàn)。 ????標普500指數(shù)在周四超過周二的高點之后,佛瑞斯特認為市場將會轉好。眼下,情況確實如此。周五上漲之后, 股市在本周一再度走高。 ????佛瑞斯特覺得自己終于可以抽空去度假了。他倒不是特別在乎排名,但是他的基金過去一個月的跌幅相對較小,僅下跌了3.6%,這比其他1,152個競爭對手好很多。 |
Wednesday: Dow -4.6% ????He slept better Tuesday night and arrived Wednesday to crazy numbers on his Bloomberg screens. The overnight futures on the S&P 500 index collapsed from 1170 to 1077, an 8% swing. "It just looked like the world was coming to…." Forester stops himself before finishing. "Well I shouldn't say that, sorry. But I started to think, maybe I'm just wrong." ????In just a couple hours he went from bullish to insecure. Stocks crashed out of the gate Wednesday before rising by late morning. By then Forester had steeled himself into buy mode again. He reduced the index puts again and added nearly $10 million of shares across nearly his entire portfolio, which includes top names Chevron (CVX), Marathon Oil (MRO), Altria (MO), The Travelers Companies (TRV), and Microsoft (MSFT). He didn't have time to pick favorites. ????After running up most of Wednesday afternoon, stocks crashed again late to finish down 4.6% on the day. Forester was miffed. "Maybe I'm missing something here," he thought. "Because the market is really acting funny. You don't get these large swings in markets unless you're in a 2008 environment." ????By the end of Wednesday, Forester was spent. He had been barking orders at his two analysts for two straight days. The S&P had whipsawed by more than 4% every day that week. He had been trying for three weeks to take a vacation to Green Lake, Wisc., with his family. ????Deep down Forester thought he had made the right moves. He bought stocks Tuesday and Wednesday after they had fallen about 20% from their year highs. He knew the U.S. economic news hadn't changed as dramatically as the stock market seemed to indicate. So he went home and tried to get some rest. He finally got a good night's sleep. Thursday: Dow +4% ????When stocks opened higher Thursday and kept climbing, Forester started smiling. The fund still has about 15% of its assets in cash, so he isn't making an all-in bet on stocks. And he still owns index puts to protect the fund during future falls. But Forester feels like he accomplished the fund's objective last week: capture 30% of the market downside, and 60% of the upside. "In order to do that you have to add to your exposure somewhere near the bottom," he says. "But it's scary down here." He thinks his high-quality companies will hold up well during tough times ahead. ????Once the S&P 500 passed Tuesday's high during trading on Thursday, Forester thought things would get better. For now, they have. After rising on Friday, stocks are up again Monday. ????Forester is finally thinking he might be able to get away for a couple days of vacation. And not that he much cares, but his fund's relatively small 3.6% decline the past month is better than every single one of its 1,152 competitors. |