黃金投資高手：金價(jià)攀升完全合理
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????繼漲勢短暫歇息幾個(gè)月之后，金價(jià)又重歸其看似勢不可擋、漫無止境的攀升行情。在上周股市急劇震蕩之際，金價(jià)曾一度上沖至每盎司1,800美元，之后隨股市反彈而回落到每盎司 1,770美元。見過以前只會在貧困居民區(qū)出現(xiàn)的那種“現(xiàn)金回購黃金”的招牌吧？現(xiàn)在別惦記著賣金換現(xiàn)，雖然你母親很可能上周已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備賣掉幾副耳環(huán)了。 ????為了對目前情況加以解讀，《財(cái)富》雜志（Fortune）有幸對資金規(guī)模達(dá)31億美元的第一雄鷹黃金基金（First Eagle Gold Fund）聯(lián)合投資組合經(jīng)理雷切爾?貝內(nèi)普進(jìn)行了一次采訪。2009年3月份，吉恩-邁瑞?艾維拉德于轉(zhuǎn)任該基金公司高級顧問之后，貝內(nèi)普和阿布伊?戴西潘德一起接替了最初由他擔(dān)任的該基金投資組合經(jīng)理這一要職。迄今為止，他倆尚未玷污該基金的聲譽(yù)：倘若你五年前在該基金投資了10,000美元——其最低投資額只需2,500美元，如今就能坐擁18,766美元；而相比之下，如果你在同一時(shí)期投資于標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的話，現(xiàn)在反而會蒙受損失。 ????讓我們直奔主題吧。在目前這個(gè)價(jià)位購買黃金不是太瘋狂？ ????我們不對金價(jià)加以預(yù)測，這是因?yàn)槲覀儼腰S金作為一種對沖工具。從這個(gè)角度來考慮，只要金價(jià)走勢存在其合理理由，實(shí)際上就沒有人能夠說黃金目前是否過于昂貴。讓我們看看自雷曼兄弟公司（Lehman）2008年破產(chǎn)以來金價(jià)的變化情況。金價(jià)每次發(fā)生實(shí)質(zhì)性波動(dòng)都相應(yīng)存在一個(gè)合理理由。我們還沒有看到金價(jià)出現(xiàn)任何毫無道理的實(shí)質(zhì)性波動(dòng)。上周，歐美的確有點(diǎn)出乎意料，出現(xiàn)一系列顯而易見的問題，因而黃金上沖至每盎司1,800美元。有人為保護(hù)自己的投資組合而瘋狂購買黃金嗎？我不這么認(rèn)為。請記住，市場上有越來越多的人逐漸意識到，黃金可以作為對沖工具。這也促使金價(jià)上漲。但要說黃金目前的市場定價(jià)錯(cuò)誤的話，那就是對黃金的看法不正確了。黃金可以保護(hù)購買力。如果股市下跌，那么黃金就應(yīng)該上漲。而且，金價(jià)是上漲還是下跌并沒有關(guān)系，只要其走勢合理即可。 |
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????After taking a breather there for a few months, gold prices have resumed their seemingly inexorable rise to infinity. Amidst the mayhem of last week, the metal briefly touched $1,800-per-ounce before sliding back to $1,770 as the stock market rebounded. Those "cash-for-gold" signs you used to see only in distressed neighborhoods? Don't look now, but your mother was probably selling a few sets of earrings last week. ????To get a read on things, Fortune caught up with Rachel Benepe, co-manager of the $3.1 billion First Eagle Gold Fund (SGGDX). Along with Abhay Deshpande, Benepe stepped into the very big shoes of Jean-Marie Eveillard when he transitioned to a senior advisor role at the fund in March 2009. And they haven't tarnished the fund's reputation yet: Had you invested $10,000 in the fund five years ago—which only requires a minimum of $2,500—you would be sitting on $18,766 today, as opposed to losing money in the S&P 500. ????Let's get right to the point. Are people insane to be buying gold at these levels? ????We don't forecast the price of gold, and that's because we view it as a hedge. Considered from that perspective, no one can really say if it's too expensive or not, as long as the price moves for rational reasons. Look at the price changes since Lehman failed in 2008. Every move of gold has happened for a rational reason. We haven't seen a single move out of context. Last week, there were obvious issues in the U.S. and Europe that kind of came out of left field, and gold hit $1,800. Is someone insane for wanting to protect their portfolio? I don't think so. Keep in mind, too, that more and more people are becoming aware that it can serve as hedge. That, too, has been driving up the price. But to say it's mispriced is the wrong way to look at it. It protects your purchasing power. Gold should go up when equities go down. It doesn't matter which way it's moving, either, as long as it's happening in a rational way. |
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????作為黃金基金的投資組合經(jīng)理，你可以購買金條，也可以購買金礦股。如何在任一特定的時(shí)間節(jié)點(diǎn)決定到底是購買金條還是購買金礦股呢？ ????不妨換一種方式來考慮這個(gè)問題，即既可以購買地面上的黃金——也就是金條——也可以購買地下的黃金——那就是通過金礦股。雖然我確實(shí)說過——無法估計(jì)金價(jià)是過高還是過低，但我們?nèi)匀幌Ｍ堪凰军S金的價(jià)格盡可能便宜，而相對于購買金條而言，目前金礦股就為我們提供了以更為便宜的價(jià)格獲得黃金的方式。今年年初以來，許多國家的中央銀行（央行只能購買金條）就已經(jīng)這樣做了，導(dǎo)致礦業(yè)股價(jià)格相比金價(jià)而言表現(xiàn)不佳——2011年迄今金條價(jià)格已上漲20％以上，但金礦類股交易所交易基金（ETF）GDX同期下跌3.7％。通常，相對于金條價(jià)格任何向上或向下的變化，金礦股都會顯示出2至3倍的杠桿效應(yīng)。因此，金礦股目前肯定是表現(xiàn)滯后了。 ????如果說黃金開采出來之后都是一樣的，那么金礦公司所處的地理位置是否重要？在選擇金礦股時(shí)是否應(yīng)該避開某些國家呢？ ????當(dāng)然。由于政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，我們會對某些地方比較謹(jǐn)慎。我們傾向于不要持有俄羅斯的金礦公司股票。我們擔(dān)心俄羅斯有這種可能：一旦找到高品位的金礦，外國投資者可能再也無法繼續(xù)持有該金礦股份。所以，國有化一定是種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。這一點(diǎn)同樣適用于委內(nèi)瑞拉。我們也非常不愿意持有中國的金礦公司股票。我們持有一家在中國擁有金礦的加拿大公司。我們通常希望投資于采礦法完備、采礦勞力穩(wěn)定、稅收及所有權(quán)清晰的地區(qū)。請注意，我們確實(shí)對采礦業(yè)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析，這意味著，從正常儲量的角度考慮屬安全管轄區(qū)域的金礦可能并不利于黃金投資。比如，與南非的一個(gè)金礦相比，投資位于阿拉斯加的一個(gè)未開發(fā)金礦可能面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)要高出許多，因?yàn)檫@首先就會面臨一系列環(huán)境問題，除此之外還有其他方面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 ????你們現(xiàn)在看好哪些股票？ ????目前在這方面南非提供了一些非常有吸引力的機(jī)會。因?yàn)槲覀儼腰S金視為一種對沖工具，而不像那些黃金死多頭那樣認(rèn)為金價(jià)將無止境地一直上漲下去，所以我們偏好那些目前正在開采而且擁有已探明可能儲量的金礦公司。南非各金礦公司擁有長期儲量，它們一直在開采黃金，而且在金礦開采方面擁有一個(gè)清晰的行動(dòng)計(jì)劃。澳大利亞紐克雷斯特礦業(yè)公司（Newcrest Mining）是我們目前持倉最大的股票。我們還非?？春眉幽么簏S金公司（Goldcorp）。它們經(jīng)營一系列大型而且多重資產(chǎn)的公司，而且對旗下這些公司的管理非常不錯(cuò)。它們?yōu)橥顿Y者提供了大量黃金儲量，而且都位于安全的管轄區(qū)域。我們非常喜歡這一點(diǎn)。 ????對金價(jià)走勢有對沖安排的金礦公司呢？ ????我們不買這些公司股票。它們對金價(jià)走勢已有了自己的看法，我們用不著。我們需要的是黃金。我們希望能從金礦股因金價(jià)漲跌走勢而出現(xiàn)的杠桿效應(yīng)中獲利。我們不喜歡某些金礦公司的首席執(zhí)行官（CEO）對金價(jià)走勢形成自己的宏觀看法。有時(shí)他們這樣做是為了保護(hù)某項(xiàng)金礦開采工程的經(jīng)濟(jì)價(jià)值，雖然我們對此可以接受，但我們還是傾向于不碰這些公司的股票。我們會躲開對金價(jià)走勢做出對沖安排的金礦公司。 ????你們?nèi)匀怀钟薪饤l，對不對？ ????是的，我們確實(shí)持有金條。目前我們基金約有17％的資產(chǎn)是金條，其余資產(chǎn)是金礦股。而且我們目前是全倉投資，手頭不留任何現(xiàn)金。 ????個(gè)人投資者該何去何從？我現(xiàn)在是否應(yīng)該囤積金條？ ????我們認(rèn)為，個(gè)人投資者購買黃金的最佳途徑是通過主動(dòng)管理型黃金基金。雖然金礦公司開采的黃金都一樣，但每家金礦公司都有各自的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況及各自的獨(dú)特情況，因而通過這些公司股票而購買到的資產(chǎn)都極為不同。最好讓投資組合經(jīng)理來替你選擇所要投資的金礦公司股票，他們經(jīng)常與這些公司的管理團(tuán)隊(duì)互通聲氣，在各金礦公司開采現(xiàn)場都有人脈關(guān)系，而這些人對金礦公司之間差異的了解遠(yuǎn)勝于普通投資者。另外，個(gè)人投資者如果打算在投資組合中加入金條資產(chǎn)的話，會相當(dāng)困難。投資者必須購買一個(gè)保險(xiǎn)箱——它的價(jià)格相當(dāng)于一根金條的十分之一——而我們只需購買金條本身。 ????黃金在個(gè)人投資者整體投資組合中所占的百分比應(yīng)該是多少？如果擔(dān)心世界末日即將到來，我是不是應(yīng)該全部投資于黃金？ ????我們一般建議個(gè)人投資者把10％左右的資產(chǎn)投資在黃金上，尤其是時(shí)局不穩(wěn)定的時(shí)期。一旦超過這個(gè)投資比例，就是在投機(jī)了。而低于5％的黃金資產(chǎn)配置則無法有效抵御任何風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，大家都知道，現(xiàn)在紙幣體系出現(xiàn)許多問題。但是，這并不意味著所有最壞的情況都將會發(fā)生。我們都希望活在一個(gè)不需要依靠黃金來對沖風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的世界里——包括我們First Eagle基金公司的工作人員在內(nèi)也是希望如此。除非想投機(jī)而押注所有這些糟糕事情都會發(fā)生，否則我們會把個(gè)人投資組合中的黃金資產(chǎn)配置比例控制在最高不超過15％的水平。 ????我們是否會回歸金本位制？最近很多人都這么說，比如羅恩?保羅。 ????總會有人這樣認(rèn)為。從我們的角度來看，目前紙幣體系面臨的主要問題是，各國央行始終擁有開動(dòng)印鈔機(jī)的選擇權(quán)。他們很難有堅(jiān)定的決心來切實(shí)解決問題，而不是通過通脹來尋找出路并擺脫困境。但我真的對世界將很快重歸完全金本位制持懷疑態(tài)度?？梢钥吹?，各國央行行長都已經(jīng)意識到，需要在各自外匯儲備中切實(shí)配置黃金。黃金已存在幾千年了，而紙幣則經(jīng)歷了興衰更替。不論是獨(dú)裁國家還是民主國家都接受黃金。只有黃金是終極貨幣。 ????翻譯：iDo98 |
????As a gold fund manager, you can buy bullion or you can buy gold mining stocks. How do you decide which to purchase at any particular point in time? ????Another way you can look at it is you can buy gold above ground —that's bullion — or you can buy gold below ground — and that would be through mining stocks. While I did say you couldn't call gold overpriced or underpriced, we still want the cheapest ounces possible, and stocks offer a much less expensive way to get them at the moment. Since the beginning of the year, many central banks, which can only buy bullion, have been doing just that. And that's caused the prices of the mining stocks to underperform — gold bullion is up more than 20% in 2011, but the sector ETF, GDX, is down 3.7%. Gold stocks normally show 2 to 3 times leverage on any move in bullion, up or down. So they are definitely lagging. ????Does geography matter if all gold is the same once it's out of the ground? Are there countries that you avoid? ????Absolutely. We have places that we are more cautious of because of political risk. We tend not to own Russian gold mining companies. We worry about the possibility that if you find something really good, you may no longer be able to hold onto it as a foreign investor. So nationalization is certainly a risk. The same goes for Venezuela. We also don't really want to own Chinese gold mining companies. We own one Canadian company that has mines in China. We tend to want to invest where there is defined mining law, established mining labor, and where issues of taxation and ownership are clear. Mind you, we do analyze risk in the context of mining industry, which means that things that are safe jurisdictions from normal stock perspective might not be good in gold. An undeveloped gold mine in Alaska, for example, could be a far riskier investment than a mine in South Africa, starting with environmental issues and moving on from there. ????So what stocks do you like right now? ????The South Africans offer some interesting opportunities at the moment. Because we view it as a hedge, and not like the gold bugs who think it's going up forever, we like mines that are in production with proven and probable reserves. South African mines have long reserves, they've been operating forever, and they have a clear path for getting gold out of the ground. Newcrest Mining is our largest holding. We also like Goldcorp (GG). They operate large, multi-asset companies, and do a good job of managing portfolios. They offer investors a lot of ounces, in safe jurisdictions. And we like that. ????What about gold companies that hedge? ????We don't buy them. They have taken a view of the metal, and we're not asking for that. We want access to the ounces. We want leverage up or down. We don't want some CEO's macro view on the price of gold. Sometimes they have to do it to protect the economics of a project, and while that can be acceptable, we tend not to buy them either. We avoid those companies that hedge. ????But you still own bullion, right? ????Yes, we do. We have about 17% in bullion and the rest in stocks. And we're fully invested—we're not sitting on any cash. ????What about individuals? Should I be hoarding gold bars right now? ????In our view, the best way for an individual investor to buy gold is through an actively managed gold fund. While gold mining companies all mine the same good, each mine has its own economics and its own unusual situations that make the assets you're buying very different. You're better off with a portfolio manager who is talking to all those management teams and has people on the ground who will undoubtedly understand those differences better than you would be able to. Plus, if you're looking to have a bullion component to your portfolio, it's pretty hard to do that as an individual. You still have to buy a security—which represents one tenth of a gold bar—whereas we buy bullion itself. ????What about the percentage of gold in my overall portfolio? Should I go whole-hog if I am worried that the world is going to end? ????We generally suggest around 10%, and especially so in this type of uncertain environment. But any more than that and you're speculating. And an allocation of less than 5% won't protect your portfolio effectively from anything. Everyone knows that many things are going wrong in the paper monetary system right now. But that doesn't mean that any of the worst-case scenarios are actually going to happen. We all want a world—and that includes us at First Eagle—where you don't need a gold hedge. Unless you really want to be speculating that all those bad things are going to be happening, we'd keep it below a maximum of 15%. ????Are we going back to the gold standard? I'm hearing a lot more people talk about that these days, not the least of whom is Ron Paul. ????You always have had people who think that. From our standpoint, the primary problem with the paper money system is that central bankers always have the option to print more money. It's hard for them to have the fortitude to actually deal with issues instead of inflating their way out of them. But I really doubt we're going to see a full gold standard any time soon. What we could see is central bankers realizing they all need a real allocation to gold in their foreign exchange reserves. It's been around for thousands of years, whereas paper currencies come and go. And it's accepted by both dictator and democracy alike. At the end of the day, it's the ultimate currency. |
