黃金本身

????在各國的國庫中，大約儲備了525,000,000盎司貨幣性黃金。換算成美元，其價值大約為11,000,000,000美元。而其中，有相當(dāng)于4,000,000,000多美元的黃金被存放在美國財政部（U. S. Treasury）和聯(lián)邦儲備銀行（Federal Reserve Banks）的金庫中，相當(dāng)于2,000,000,000美元的黃金由法蘭西銀行（Bank of France）持有，相當(dāng)于700,000,000美元的黃金則在英格蘭銀行手中，其余部分則散布在世界各國的銀行金庫里。

????每年，隨著黃金開采量的增加，貨幣性黃金的供應(yīng)量也在增加。雖然每年黃金開采量的增加幅度不同，但在過去五年，世界各地金礦每年產(chǎn)出價值約400,000,000美元的黃金。其中，88,000,000美元的黃金進了印度人的私人金庫。73,000,000美元的黃金被用于藝術(shù)創(chuàng)作（包括牙科），剩下的不到240,000,000美元的黃金被各國用于充實國庫。

????在全部400,000,000美元黃金產(chǎn)量中，南非蘭特（Rand）金礦貢獻的比例在一半以上。美國和加拿大緊隨其后，兩國產(chǎn)量分別在40,000,000美元左右。之后是俄羅斯（約20,000,000美元）、墨西哥、澳大利亞，以及南羅德西亞（今津巴布韋——譯注）（各地區(qū)產(chǎn)量均在千萬美元左右）。全球分配較為均衡。匯總數(shù)據(jù)顯示，全球每年增加的產(chǎn)量中，超過80%是在英語國家。

????而不確定因素包括：目前正在開采的這些金礦的未來會怎樣，在有關(guān)黃金短缺的爭論中，這一因素顯得尤為重要。蘭特金礦是世界上最大的金礦，因此具有舉足輕重的地位，而專家對它未來的產(chǎn)量卻并不樂觀。金礦本身不會出產(chǎn)黃金。黃金開采只不過是從地下開采原本便已經(jīng)存在的礦物而已。因此，它的供應(yīng)量是有限的。而這種限制完全取決于地質(zhì)因素。一個人不可能對離地面6,000英尺（1,829米）深的礦床進行實地檢查。他可以在上面鉆孔，研究巖石結(jié)構(gòu)，提取樣本，用盡一切手段，但當(dāng)他開始介紹各種數(shù)據(jù)時，充其量也只是在猜測而已。目前，據(jù)大部分地質(zhì)學(xué)家預(yù)測，在未來十年內(nèi)，蘭特金礦的產(chǎn)量將減少一半。而在“許多年內(nèi)”，美洲大陸的黃金產(chǎn)量可以一直保持當(dāng)前的水平。即使他們猜對了，也依然無法提供未來黃金生產(chǎn)的完整答案。從金礦的開采、破碎到提煉，這是個技術(shù)過程，而與其他技術(shù)過程一樣，它也將會不斷改進。當(dāng)一種名為氯化工藝的方法問世之后，人們通過購買一堆沒有任何商業(yè)價值的礦石，然后利用這種新方法進行提煉，同樣可以賺得盆滿缽盈。

????此外，還有另外一個不確定因素。金礦開采也是一項商業(yè)活動，只不過它與其他商業(yè)活動存在區(qū)別，即其產(chǎn)品實行法律強制規(guī)定的固定價格。而且，礦主也不會面臨銷路問題。他的利潤只會受到生產(chǎn)成本的影響。在經(jīng)濟繁榮時期，勞動力和材料成本不斷上升，金礦的利潤縮水，直至無利可圖，此時，礦主會放棄開采。而當(dāng)壓縮空氣所需成本，以及鋼鐵、炸藥，和人力成本變得低廉時，礦主又會重新開放金礦。隨著黃金短缺情況的出現(xiàn)，以及按這些商品衡量的黃金價值出現(xiàn)上升時，越來越多的金礦會開始盈利，進而推動產(chǎn)量的提升。在不景氣的年份，預(yù)言家們也承認這一點，但他們認為已知金礦中受到影響的數(shù)量有限，不足以抵消黃金儲備的縮水。

????最后一點：上述爭論都是建立在當(dāng)前已知金礦的基礎(chǔ)上。人們已經(jīng)確定了每一碼富含金礦的礦石，并把它們的位置標(biāo)在了地圖上，這種假設(shè)根本不符合邏輯。美國加利福尼亞州或者南非，或者育空地區(qū)金礦的出現(xiàn)都毫無征兆。人們只是碰巧找到了它們而已。沒人知道，人類什么時候能再次撞上另外一塊富礦地帶？不過，到目前為止，上帝確實給過我們這樣的恩賜。上帝同時還規(guī)定，黃金對人類的吸引力越大，就會有越多的人四處尋找。

????如果想在全球黃金供應(yīng)的爭論中堅持己見，就要牢記這些數(shù)字和要點。如果當(dāng)前的大蕭條持續(xù)發(fā)展，勢必會出現(xiàn)越來越多類似的爭論。因為在困難時期，黃金儲備總是能引發(fā)巨大的爭論。此種爭論的進程如下。

????由于人類采用黃金來衡量自己的勞動成果，因此有人認為，如果可用黃金的數(shù)量增加，產(chǎn)品的價值也會相應(yīng)上漲。其他因素也會提高產(chǎn)品的價值，我們也會論及；撇開其他方面不談，由于世界的價值以黃金為衡量標(biāo)準，因此，如果黃金數(shù)量增加，世界的價值也會上漲，這一點毫無疑問。所以，每次發(fā)現(xiàn)新的金礦，隨之而來的總是經(jīng)濟的繁榮。歐洲人發(fā)現(xiàn)新大陸后，用西班牙大帆船運回黃金，1849年美國加州淘金熱，以及南非和美國阿拉斯加州金礦的開放，這些都帶來了世界經(jīng)濟的繁榮。當(dāng)然，這種影響比較短暫，因為，當(dāng)世界習(xí)慣了新財富之后，一切又重回原樣——人們的工資可能翻了一倍，但生活成本也在按同樣的比例上漲。新的財富并沒有被平均分配，而且通過計算可以看出，生活成本也并未因此有所增加，與所發(fā)現(xiàn)的黃金價值也不成正比。不過，雖然平衡未被打破，但新產(chǎn)生的百萬富翁們會開始揮霍他們的財富，因此經(jīng)濟依然能保持增長勢頭。這些暴發(fā)戶們雇傭了更多的人來服侍他們，支付的工資也有所提高。

????當(dāng)世界上商品數(shù)量的增加速度高于黃金供應(yīng)的速度時，這個過程將出現(xiàn)逆轉(zhuǎn)。相對而言，黃金變得更加稀有，人們愿意用更多的商品換取一定數(shù)量的黃金——換句話說，商品價格開始下跌，通貨緊縮開始出現(xiàn)。

????目前， 關(guān)于黃金短缺的大部分爭論都從一個假設(shè)開始——牢記上述要點——即每年，世界商品數(shù)量以3%的比例增加，所以，為了保持穩(wěn)定的價格水平，黃金儲備數(shù)量也必須按同等比例增加。目前這一點并未實現(xiàn)。過去十年，黃金儲備的增長率始終略低于商品數(shù)量的增加。而如前所述，未來的情況也并不樂觀。因此，某學(xué)派認為，必須采取必要的措施，其中一條便是增加黃金的產(chǎn)量。

????但是，對于新的黃金供應(yīng)必然出現(xiàn)下降的論點，我們并不確定；同樣對于所計算出的3%的增加比例，也存在諸多不確定性。確實如此：假如明天各國國庫中突然增加了大量的黃金，“經(jīng)濟的春天”立馬就會到來，直到這些黃金被完全消化。

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????Gold Itself

????There are some 525,000,000 ounces of monetary gold in the treasuries of the world. In terms of dollars, this is worth almost $11,000,000,000. Of this supply, over $4,000,000,000 is in the U.S. in the vaults of the U. S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve Banks, $2,000,000,000 is in the vaults of the Bank of France, some $700,000,000 in the Bank of England, and the rest in bank vaults scattered over the earth.

????This supply is increased, each year, by a percentage of the new gold mined. The amount varies, but for the last five years the mines have supplied about $400,000,000 worth of gold a year. Of this, some $88,000,000 has gone to India to be hoarded by individuals. Some $73,000,000 has been used in the arts (including dentistry), leaving less than $240,000,000 to enrich the treasuries of the world.

????Of the whole $400,000,000, the South African Rand mines have furnished over half. The U. S. and Canada come next, with around $40,000,000 apiece, then Russia (about $20,000,000), and Mexico, Australia, and Southern Rhodesia (each with a dozen-odd million). The balance is distributed about the globe. A summary shows that English-speaking countries produce over 80 per cent of the yearly increment.

????This much is uncertain: the future of the mines which supply this gold, an even more important factor in gold shortage arguments. The Rand mines, being the largest, dominate this situation, and experts are pessimistic about their future production. A mine, however, does not produce. It merely takes out of the ground what is there. Hence its supply is limited. But the nature of such limits are matters of geologic opinion. A man can't walk around a body of ore 6,000 feet beneath the surface. He can drill holes in it, study the structure of the rock, take samples, and use all the tricks he knows, but, at best, the minute he begins to quote figures to you he is guessing. At present, the majority of the geologists guess that within ten years the production of the Rand mines will be cut in half. They guess again that the American continental output will remain constant for "many years." Nor, even if they guess right, have they given you the whole answer to the future of gold production. For the process of taking gold out of the earth and crushing and refining it is a technical process, subject, like all technical processes, to improvement. When a method called the cyanide process was invented, men made fortunes buying dumps of rock abandoned as commercially worthless and putting them through the new method.

????There is still another factor. Mining-gold is a business, like any other, but differing from most in that the price of its product is fixed by law, inexorably. Nor has the miner any sales problem. The profits he makes are influenced solely by his cost of production. The mounting labor and material costs of good times cut down his margin until it disappears and he abandons his mine. When compressed air and steel and dynamite and men are cheap, he may reopen it. Hence, as a gold shortage approaches and the metal's value measured in these commodities rises, more and more mines may be operated profitably, and production rises. Prophets of lean years admit this, but reply that the number of known mines affected is not large enough to offset the indicated shrinkage in reserves.

????One last consideration: such arguments as have been suggested above are based on gold deposits known to exist. It is not logical to suppose that man has located and marked on a map every yard of gold-laden rock. The gold in California or South Africa or the Yukon gave no warning. Man stumbled on it. Just when he may stumble on another bonanza none knows but, to date, the Lord has provided. He further provides that as gold grows more desirable to man, more of the species look for it.

????Remember these figures and these considerations if you are interested in holding your own in an argument on the world's gold supply. And, if the current depression is prolonged, there will be more and more such arguments, for in the darkness of hard times is the hour of great argument about gold reserves. Which comes about this way.

????Since man has come to measure his handiwork in gold, any increase in the amount of gold available, it is argued, will make his goods more valuable in terms of gold. Other factors may make them worth more, too, and we shall come to these; but everything else aside, there seems no doubt that since the world's worth is measured in gold, if there were more gold the world would be worth more. Thus every discovery of a new supply of the metal has been accompanied by a boom. Happy days followed the discovery of America and the return of gold in galleons, the prospecting of the Forty-niners, the opening of South African and Alaskan fields. The effect, of course, is comparatively temporary, because once the world has become used to its new wealth, things settle down again -- an individual may get twice the wage, but it will cost twice as much to live. Nor is the wealth evenly distributed, nor does it increase the cost of living according to mathematical formulas, nor in direct proportion to the amount of gold discovered. But while a balance is being struck, while the new millionaire is scattering his shekels, the upward curve persists. The nouveau riche is hiring more people to wait on him and paying them more.

????The reverse of this process would occur when the world's goods increased faster than the gold supply. Relatively, gold becomes scarcer and men are willing to exchange more commodities for a given amount of it -- in other words, prices fall and the deflation is on.

????Now most arguments on gold shortage start -- with these considerations in mind – on the assumption that the world's commodities are increasing by about 3 per cent a year, so that, to maintain a stable price level, the gold on hand must increase a like amount. This it has not been doing. The rate of increase for the last ten years has been fraction less. The future, as noted, appears even more dubious. Hence, reasons one school, something must be done about it, and one of the things would be to produce more actual metal.

????However, just as we observe uncertainties in the thesis that the supply of new gold must inevitably dwindle, there are also uncertainties in connection with the computed 3 per cent increase. This much is true: if, tomorrow, very large amounts of gold were added to the world's treasury, boom times would begin the day after -- and last until that gold had been, largely speaking, digested.?