????但是，一個(gè)國家的黃金信貸基數(shù)的枯竭，并不是必要的黃金自由流通導(dǎo)致機(jī)制運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)失常的唯一途徑。只有在提前保證最高的良好信貸時(shí)，黃金才會達(dá)到其最大價(jià)值，從這個(gè)前提出發(fā)，下述理論便顯而易見：理論上講，從人類的最終福祉來考慮，某一國家擁有的黃金可能過多量了。因?yàn)閺母旧蟻碚f，黃金的力學(xué)效率取決于黃金與以黃金為基礎(chǔ)的信貸之間的比例。因此，如果一個(gè)國家擁有過多的黃金，即使按照最慷慨的安全系數(shù)，該國持有的黃金所能提供的信貸超額部分對本國沒有任何用處，因此，這批多余的黃金根本沒有發(fā)揮任何作用，也就是所謂的“被凍結(jié)”。當(dāng)然，供求規(guī)律應(yīng)該有助于中和黃金過度囤積的現(xiàn)象，但是人們越來越意識到，正常時(shí)期已經(jīng)成為歷史——或許從來就沒有所謂的正常時(shí)期。此外，個(gè)別系統(tǒng)的法定要求可能會使供應(yīng)和需求無效，這一點(diǎn)毋庸置疑。事實(shí)上，為了使這一理論看起來更完善，所有國家都不得不制定類似的系統(tǒng)，要求制定相同的黃金儲備率、相同的待資助的交易量、相同的銀行業(yè)法規(guī)、相同的信貸貸款；此外，還要求人們擁有相同的習(xí)慣。對于相同的信貸結(jié)構(gòu)，擁有40%儲備的國家可以比擁有30%儲備的國家使用更多的黃金；同理，如果一個(gè)國家的人民傾向于使用現(xiàn)金進(jìn)行支付，這個(gè)國家也就能使用更多的黃金。該國的機(jī)制效率系數(shù)也更低?，F(xiàn)在，即使對比率等因素進(jìn)行調(diào)整，從而允許一個(gè)國家采用更有效的信貸系統(tǒng)來處理更復(fù)雜和更高要求的工作，主要國家信貸系統(tǒng)的效率仍然將存在顯著的差異，這一點(diǎn)是顯而易見的。黃金機(jī)制其中的某些部分的演變速度快于其他部分。那么，造成的結(jié)果就是，低效率、落后的部件就需要更多的燃料，以使它們保持運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。

????如果對這一階段的機(jī)制進(jìn)行總結(jié)，得出的結(jié)論是，把黃金的有效使用作為一個(gè)共同基礎(chǔ)，可能會因?yàn)槭艿揭韵聝蓚€(gè)因素的影響而崩盤，這一點(diǎn)毋庸置疑：（1）一國擁有的黃金數(shù)量超過它的實(shí)際使用量；（2）使用的黃金數(shù)量超過它的實(shí)際需求量。

????現(xiàn)在，黃金機(jī)制工作圖示的主要輪廓已經(jīng)清晰了。在這里做個(gè)總結(jié)，它包括各國的信貸結(jié)構(gòu)、支撐一個(gè)國家、并使一個(gè)國家的信貸結(jié)構(gòu)與本國或其他國家的黃金供應(yīng)相互聯(lián)系的共通準(zhǔn)則。其中，外匯的作用使黃金在每個(gè)信貸結(jié)構(gòu)之間不斷轉(zhuǎn)移（但并非總是自愿的）?，F(xiàn)在，我們再回到最初的觀念：隨著汽車從福特公司的迪爾伯恩工廠下線，英格蘭銀行的黃金被提取出來。汽車圖片中的車輪、控制桿和活塞相互連接，在運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)的同時(shí)必然會彼此影響，改變各自的價(jià)值。

????以上就是我們對世人心照不宣的設(shè)想進(jìn)行的分析，即這一機(jī)制的存在是源于經(jīng)濟(jì)因素。也就是說，這一機(jī)制的設(shè)計(jì)初衷及運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)是為了普羅大眾的利益，雖然嫉妒、貪婪和愚蠢在這一過程中不斷出現(xiàn)，令人遺憾；但是共同的目標(biāo)依然是創(chuàng)造有效的商業(yè)工具，這是唯一的目標(biāo)。有大量的證據(jù)表明，其它一些不那么悲憫的動(dòng)機(jī)有時(shí)候也會驅(qū)動(dòng)這個(gè)機(jī)制，隨心所欲的亂來一通。事實(shí)上，用一句流行的話概括就是，“黃金問題不再是一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，相反，它是一個(gè)政治問題。”

????圍繞這一觀點(diǎn)的理由是危險(xiǎn)的。很多人給出了斷言，但是很少言論得到證實(shí)。政客們偏離正道，給出很多與事實(shí)不相干的觀點(diǎn)。這一點(diǎn)千真萬確：戰(zhàn)爭狀態(tài)的存在容易將黃金與其信貸結(jié)構(gòu)相分離，使實(shí)體黃金成為唯一的終極追求目標(biāo)。當(dāng)一個(gè)國家宣布進(jìn)入戰(zhàn)爭狀態(tài)時(shí)，通常情況下，它做的第一件事就是宣布金本位制失效。這意味著它利用信貸來管理內(nèi)部事務(wù)，將戰(zhàn)爭取勝的預(yù)期目標(biāo)作為抵押品，并且保存黃金作為與中立國家交易的工具。此時(shí)，這個(gè)國家的“黃金儲備”無疑成為囤積——用于最后的緊急狀態(tài)，成為混亂戰(zhàn)爭中的唯一靠得住的東西。因此，不論時(shí)代如何變遷，在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)體制的背后，始終有一種人類本能的沖動(dòng)，希望把黃金牢牢掌控在自己手中。

????

????戰(zhàn)爭對黃金機(jī)制的唯一控制并不僅限于此。很顯然，國與國之間的財(cái)務(wù)平衡——與人與人之間的財(cái)務(wù)平衡相同——會對相互關(guān)系產(chǎn)生影響。還有，新千年還遠(yuǎn)未到來，在戰(zhàn)爭思維的影響下，攻擊型和防御型的聯(lián)盟仍有可能備受追捧。資本的借貸可能正是類似戰(zhàn)爭陰謀的一部分。

????那么，很顯然，以下兩個(gè)因素——戰(zhàn)爭給持有黃金帶來的紅利，以及大規(guī)模的財(cái)政政策附帶政治而非經(jīng)濟(jì)目的——可能給黃金機(jī)制的運(yùn)行造成深遠(yuǎn)的影響，英格蘭銀行的金條和迪爾伯恩工廠的汽車可能都無法幸免。

????那么，背后的機(jī)制是怎樣的呢？機(jī)制的復(fù)雜程度令人難以置信，車輪轉(zhuǎn)動(dòng)、停止、開始，整個(gè)過程無比的復(fù)雜，影響著20億人的生活：或讓他們衣食無憂、安居樂業(yè)，或讓他們食不裹腹、露宿街頭。人們創(chuàng)造了這種機(jī)制，但是它變得過于龐大，人們再也無法理解一臺蒸汽機(jī)或一個(gè)簡單的化學(xué)式那樣的方式去理解它。人們能說的就是，這就是它的基本運(yùn)作方式，它可能產(chǎn)生這樣或那樣的影響。而從我輩福利的角度來看，所謂的“這樣或那樣的影響”就是指物價(jià)水平。物價(jià)高企意味著經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮時(shí)期。反之，物價(jià)下降則意味著經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入蕭條。當(dāng)然，并不總是這么回事，只有這一點(diǎn)是肯定的。但是通常情況下，事實(shí)就是如此。

????人們很容易利用方程式對變化的物價(jià)水平進(jìn)行描述，雖然在高等學(xué)術(shù)界有人質(zhì)疑，這樣的方程式是否具有實(shí)際價(jià)值。但是，以下觀點(diǎn)將幫助人們更形象地了解一個(gè)觀點(diǎn)。世界上所有商品的最終價(jià)格是指供需的比例。供應(yīng)量是指任何待售商品的總量。需求量是世界需要和能買得起的商品的總量。這些都是宏觀的概念，但是相對來說比較清晰?，F(xiàn)在，將這一方程式與貨幣機(jī)制相關(guān)聯(lián)，很明顯，后者直接與需求因素相對應(yīng)。而需求因素，在財(cái)政資源中分為兩部分：可用現(xiàn)金與可用信貸的總量。而且，只有在最后的因素中，貨幣機(jī)制的設(shè)計(jì)師能控制這個(gè)方程式或任何其他方程式的結(jié)果。他們通過頭重腳輕的奇妙裝置，偏離正常軌道進(jìn)行工作， 兩個(gè)人向相反方向拉動(dòng)同一個(gè)杠桿，使機(jī)器失去控制，其他人爭論下一步該拉動(dòng)哪個(gè)操縱裝置。他們將力量特別集中于一個(gè)閥門：標(biāo)示為“央行再貼現(xiàn)率”的閥門。現(xiàn)在，這個(gè)閥門已經(jīng)啟動(dòng)。

????如果存在某個(gè)樞紐對這個(gè)機(jī)制進(jìn)行操縱，這個(gè)樞紐就恰巧就位于此。因?yàn)樵谛刨J和黃金差價(jià)的瓶頸中，供應(yīng)很容易被窒息。設(shè)想一下，一群人圍坐在一張紅木桌子旁，達(dá)成一致意見。第二天的結(jié)果無外乎兩種：要么增加同胞手頭的錢，要么減少他們持有的錢。這是一份沉重的責(zé)任。如果手頭的錢過多，人們肯定會失于驕奢；反之，如果錢太少，人們必然感到沮喪。很明顯，這種控制不是絕對的。而且，今天，各國央行的頭頭腦腦們要關(guān)心的已經(jīng)不再僅限于本國人民，而是整個(gè)世界。

????翻譯：劉進(jìn)龍/喬樹靜

????But the draining of one nation's gold credit base is not the only way in which the necessarily free movement of metal may upset the smooth functioning of the machine. If you start with the thesis that gold reaches its fullest value to the world only when the maximum sound credit is being advanced on it, it at once becomes evident that, theoretically, for the ultimate welfare of mankind, an individual nation may have too much gold. For the mechanical efficiency of gold is, per se) its ratio to the credit built on it. Hence if one nation owns so much gold that, even after allowing the most generous factor of safety, it has no use for the excess of credit its gold could supply, that excess of gold is doing no useful work and is what is happily called "sterilized." Of course the laws of supply and demand should tend to counteract this tendency of too much gold to pile up, but as intimated, normal times are matters of history – perhaps never existed. Moreover, the legal requirements of individual systems may, conceivably, nullify supply and demand. Indeed, for theoretical perfection, all the nations would have to have identical systems the same gold reserve ratios, the same volume of trade to be financed, the same banking laws, the same facilities, and their peoples the same habits. A nation on a 40 per cent reserve would use more gold for the same credit structure than one on 30 per cent reserve; so would a nation whose people always paid in cash. Their machines would have lower coefficients of efficiency. Now even adjusting the ratios, etc., to allow for the fact that one country may need a more efficient credit system to do its more complicated and demanding work, it is obvious that a vast disparity in the efficiencies of credit systems of leading nations exists. Some parts of the gold machine have evolved faster than others. The result is that the backward members with their lower efficiency require more than their share of the common fuel to keep them running.

????Summing up this phase of the business, then, the efficient use of gold as a common base may conceivably be endangered (1) by a country's having more than it can use and (2) using more than it needs.

????The main outlines of the working drawing of the gold machine are now sketched in. Observe, to review, the credit structures of the individual nations, the same general principles underlying each and linking each to its, or somebody else's, supply of gold. Between them all, the mechanics of foreign exchange, constantly shifting (and not always happily) the raw metal at the base of each structure. Now go back to the original conception of an automobile rolling from the line in Ford's Dearborn factory and gold being lifted from the Bank of England. Every wheel and lever and piston suggested in the picture of the machine which links them operates inevitably to change their values, the one in terms of the other, interchangeably.

????So far there has run through our analysis the tacit assumption that the machine's raison d' etre is economic, i.e., that it was conceived and set in motion for the benefit of all the peoples of the world and that while jealousy and greed and stupidity might, unhappily, have entered in the making, the common goal was the creation of an efficient instrument of commerce and an efficient instrument of commerce only. There is a good deal of evidence that other and less beneficent motives sometimes make its wheels go round, tinker with its governors, and handle monkey wrenches carelessly. In fact, a popular generalization of the day is that "the gold problem is no longer economic but political."

????The ground hereabouts is dangerous. Many assertions are made and few are proven. Statesmen and politicians move in devious ways with red herring in every pocket. This much is true: the existence of a state of war tends to divorce gold from its credit structure and make the physical metal the only ultimate reality. The first thing a country usually does when it declares war is to go off the gold standard. This means that it runs its internal affairs on credit, using the expectation of victory as collateral, and saves its gold for dealings with neutral countries. Its "gold reserve" is now definitely a hoard, something to be saved for the last emergency, the only reality in a barbaric chaos. Hence back of all the fine subtleties of the world's economic system there lies this atavistic instinct to hold on to the metal itself.

????

????This fundamentalism is not war's only hold on the gold machine. Obviously the financial balance between nations -- as between individuals -- affects their relationships. And, the millennium not yet at hand, offensive and defensive alliances, with war in mind, may still be sought after. The lending or borrowing of money may still be a part of such machinations.

????It is evident, then, that these two factors, the premium which war places on possession of gold metal and the idea that large financial policies may have political rather than economic aims, may have a profound effect on the functioning of the gold machine, influencing alike the bar of gold in Threadneedle Street and the automobile in Dearborn.

????What does all this machinery do? There it stands in all its unbelievable complexness, its wheels whirring, stopping, starting, insanely complicated, affecting the lives of nearly 2,000,000,000 people, giving them more to eat or less, making their beds for them or letting them sleep on the floor. Man created it, but it has grown too large for the mind of any man to understand in one conception as a mind understands a steam engine or a simple chemical formula. All one can say is that basically it works thus and so, and it tends to effect this and that. And the major this and that, in terms of your welfare and mine, is the price level. The price level rises -- good times. The price level falls -- hard times. Not necessarily and invariably. Nothing so certain as that in this business. But generally speaking.

????A version of an equation explaining a shifting price level is not hard to diagram, although there is some doubt, in higher academic circles, as to whether any such equation is of real value. But the following may help to visualize one conception. The ultimate price of the world's goods is the ratio of supply to demand. The supply is the sum total of everything for sale. The demand is the sum total the world wants and can afford to pay for. These are large conceptions, but relatively clear. Now, relating this equation to the money machine, it is obvious that the latter enters directly into the demand factor only. And the demand factor, expressed in the financial resources of the world, divides itself into two parts: the aggregate of cash available and the credit available. In this last factor, and in this last factor alone, can the engineers of the money machine take a hand in controlling the answer to this equation, or any other such. Deviously they work, through the whole top-heavy contraption, two men tugging at the same lever in opposite directions, the machine running amuck while a dozen others debate on which control to pull next. On one valve especially they all concentrate: the valve labeled "central bank rediscount rate," which we have already seen in action.

????If from anyone central point the machine can be maneuvered, it is here. For at this bottle neck in the spreading of credit from gold, the supply can be choked off, thrown wide open. A group of men sit about a mahogany table and agree; the next day their countrymen have that much more money to spend, that much less. A grave responsibility. If their people get more than is good for them, they will indulge in excesses; too little will depress them. Quite obviously, the control is not absolute. Today they have not only their own people to think of, but the whole world.