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歐洲面臨崩盤危機(上)

歐洲面臨崩盤危機(上)

Shawn Tully 2011-08-24
始于希臘的主權債務危機愈演愈烈,大有動搖整個歐洲大陸之勢,美國那脆弱的經濟復蘇也有慘遭扼殺之虞。解決歐元區(qū)經濟問題必須爭分奪秒。

????乍一眼看上去,亞尼斯?布塔利斯不太像是個支持自由市場的改革家。這位現年69歲的塞薩洛尼基(Thessaloniki,希臘第二大城市)市長前臂和指關節(jié)上都有紋身,滿頭白發(fā)修剪得很短,面部皺紋很多,看起來就像是塊歷盡滄桑的皮革。在一個悶熱的夏日午后,我們坐在他那單調乏味的辦公室傾談。他戴著金耳環(huán),身穿牛仔褲,腳踏一雙Keds黑色高幫無系帶膠底球鞋,還一根接一根地抽著駱駝牌(Camels)無過濾嘴香煙。進入政界之前,布塔利斯是個生意人,現在他仍然擁有該國最頂尖的釀酒廠之一(不過,他過去縱酒過度,現在正在戒酒,不能再享用自己的陳年佳釀了)。他在政治上很難算得上是保守派,當年第一次入選塞薩洛尼基市議會時,他甚至還是個共產黨黨員。

????不過,就算是對布塔利斯來說,希臘那史詩般的經濟滑鐵盧也已經讓他忍無可忍?!跋ED人借錢毫無節(jié)制,花錢大手大腳。在商品制造和提供旅游業(yè)等服務方面也完全喪失了競爭力,”他憤怒地說,一邊說還一邊用力揮舞手中的香煙以示強調,“如果想開公司的話,就算是去保加利亞也比希臘好!”

????塞薩洛尼基是希臘北部的工業(yè)中心,它本該成為國際郵輪公司的重要港口、歐洲退休者的旅游勝地和巴爾干地區(qū)的運輸樞紐,但眾多不利政策使該市無法充分發(fā)揮潛力,這位深感挫折的市長正全力改變它們。布塔利斯受夠了掣肘,準備親手解決這些問題。比如說,他威脅要采取激進措施(當然是按照希臘標準來衡量),把該市運轉失靈的垃圾收集行業(yè)私有化?!跋嚓P工會正在抵制我的改革,以每三個垃圾桶只清理一個的方式進行‘罷工’,”布塔利斯不滿地說,“我正在考慮雇傭合同工,這樣每噸垃圾的清理費可以省下一半!”

????布塔利斯眼前的這團亂麻——以及必須立即采取行動的緊迫性——正是整個歐洲面臨的問題的縮影。想必閣下肯定已經聽說過,整個歐洲大陸目前深陷于不斷升級的債務危機無法自拔。危機2010年初肇始于希臘,但最近幾周已經蔓延到意大利和西班牙,而這些國家經濟規(guī)模太大,一旦出事沒人能救得了。這些國家——還包括葡萄牙和愛爾蘭——要么背負著沉重的債務,要么現在仍有龐大的財政赤字,但卻還在不斷累積新債務,這一切都是他們過去十年來毫無節(jié)制浪費公帑的后果。如今,投資者擔心這些國家的競爭力長期低下,無法保持足夠的增長速度,將來連國債的利息都無力清償。因此,全球養(yǎng)老金基金、保險公司和銀行紛紛拋售西班牙和意大利國債,使其國債收益率一路飆升,直指災難性的高位。?

????At first glance, Yiannis Boutaris would seem to be an unlikely free-market reformer. The 69-year-old mayor of Thessaloniki, Greece's second-largest city, has tattoos decorating his forearms and knuckles, short-cropped white hair, and a face creased like worn leather. As we sit and talk in his drab office on a sweltering summer afternoon, he's chain-smoking unfiltered Camels and wearing jeans, a gold stud earring, and black high-top Keds sneakers with no laces. Boutaris was a businessman before he got into politics, and he still owns one of the country's leading wineries (although, as a recovering alcoholic, he can no longer drink his own vintages). But he's hardly a political conservative. He was originally elected to Thessaloniki's city council as a member of the Communist Party.

????Even Boutaris, however, has reached a breaking point with his nation's Homeric economic failures. "The Greeks borrowed and consumed recklessly, and got totally uncompetitive at making things and providing services like tourism," he says angrily, jabbing the air with his cigarette for emphasis. "If you want to start a business, you'll do better going to Bulgaria!"

????The frustrated mayor is battling to end policies that block Thessaloniki, the industrial center of northern Greece, from becoming what it should be -- a principal port for the world's cruise lines, a favorite resort for European retirees, and a transit hub for the Balkans. Fed up, Boutaris is taking matters into his own hands. For instance, he's threatening to take the radical (for Greece) step of privatizing the city's dysfunctional waste collection business. "The unions are 'striking' against my reforms by picking up one can out of three," grouses Boutaris. "I'm thinking about hiring contract workers. We could save 50% on every ton of garbage!"

????The mess that Boutaris is tackling -- and the overwhelming need to take action now -- epitomizes the problems facing Europe. As you've no doubt heard, the continent is trapped in an escalating debt crisis. It began in Greece in early 2010, but in recent weeks it has spread to Italy and Spain, nations that are simply too big to bail out. Those countries -- as well as Portugal and Ireland -- suffer from either crushing debt loads or gigantic current deficits that are piling on new debt, a legacy of their reckless overspending during the past decade. Today investors worry that these nations are so chronically uncompetitive, they can't grow fast enough to pay the future interest on that debt. As a result, global pension funds, insurers, and banks are dumping Spanish and Italian bonds, threatening to drive rates to ruinous levels.?

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