????蓋伊?斯滕是Standard Life Investments公司多元化投資業(yè)務(wù)的負(fù)責(zé)人，當(dāng)我問他是如何排除價格波動和其他眾多投資對150億美元的全球穩(wěn)固回報策略基金（Global Absolute Return Strategies fund）的影響這一問題時，他的答案令人感到有點費解。

????“要記住，投資領(lǐng)域最不穩(wěn)定的因素便是波動本身，”他說，“以股市為例。在過去的5年當(dāng)中，其波動率一會是50，一會又是15。所以你得明白這些數(shù)值是不穩(wěn)定的”。

????然而，斯滕（及其團(tuán)隊，共25名人員）的經(jīng)營能力卻相當(dāng)穩(wěn)定。全球穩(wěn)固回報策略基金的目標(biāo)就是回報率要比現(xiàn)金回報率多5%，而風(fēng)險只有當(dāng)前股市投資組合風(fēng)險的一半。在過去的5年當(dāng)中，該基金的回報率為7.4%，對比2.2%的現(xiàn)金回報率，幾乎剛好高出5%。具體來說，這只基金的投資組合同時使用多達(dá)30種不同的策略，目的就是在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)動蕩時期更好地保護(hù)投資者的利益，

????《財富》雜志（Fortune）好不容易采訪到了斯滕，請他談了談對歐元、美元問題的看法以及他鐘情于瑞典的原因。

????以股市一半的風(fēng)險來套取同樣回報的目標(biāo)對于我來說如同烏托邦那樣可望而不可及。你們是如何實施這一策略的？

????風(fēng)險和回報是成正比的，想獲得更高的回報，一般來說就得冒更大的風(fēng)險。盡管如此，他們之間并不是線性關(guān)系。也就是說，要拿到如同投資股市那樣的高回報，不一定就得承擔(dān)相應(yīng)的高風(fēng)險。

????如何做到這一點？尋求那些不依賴于股市和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長就能獲取收益的投資載體。多元化的增長型基金投資選擇面很廣，除了股票，其他的還包括投資級債券、私募股權(quán)、房產(chǎn)、甚至是新興市場主權(quán)債務(wù)。但這些都是成長型資產(chǎn)。如果經(jīng)濟(jì)增長為零或趨于停滯，收益也就成為了泡影，投資也就毫無關(guān)聯(lián)性可言。

????我們有四大種類的投資。第一種是市場常見的收益類型，帶有風(fēng)險溢價性質(zhì)。第二種是證券選擇，這一種與增長無關(guān)，完全依賴于出色的調(diào)研。第三種，方向性策略，意指那些沒有隱性風(fēng)險溢價的資產(chǎn)種類。第四種是相對價值。例如，幾個季度以來，我們認(rèn)為在投資組合當(dāng)中，大盤股的表現(xiàn)要好于小盤股，這與市場方向無關(guān)。它們往往更便宜，財力更雄厚，資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表也更為穩(wěn)健。但是我們不承擔(dān)股票風(fēng)險，我們在拋售小盤股的同時購進(jìn)同樣數(shù)量的大盤股。比起德國，我們更偏愛瑞士的股市。

????

????When I asked Guy Stern, head of multi-asset investments at Standard Life Investments, how he managed to stay on top of price fluctuations and correlations of the many investments in the $15 billion Global Absolute Return Strategies fund, he answered with a bit of a mindbender.

????"It's important to remember that one of the least stable things in the investment world is volatility itself," he said "Take the equity market. Over the past five years, its volatility was 50 at one point and 15 at another. So you need to start with an understanding that those values are not stable."

????What has been pretty stable, though, is Stern's ability (along with a team of 25) to deliver on the GARS fund's aim of delivering a return of 5% more than you'd get in cash, with half the risk of an active equity portfolio. Over the past five years, the GARS has delivered 7.4% returns, almost exactly 5% more than the cash return of 2.2%. More specifically, the purpose of the portfolio is to protect investors from global economic turmoil by deploying up to 30 different strategies simultaneously.

????Fortune tracked him down to talk about the euro, the dollar, and why he loves Sweden so much.

????Your stated goal of equity-like returns with half the risk strikes me as a Utopian dream. How do you go about putting that strategy in place?

????The step you have to take is that while risk and return are positively correlated—if you want higher returns, you generally need to take on more risk—they are not linear. You don't have to accept the kind of risk you would get from global equities to get the same return.

????How do we create that? By seeking out ways to generate returns that are not merely based on equities rising or global economic growth. Your typical diversified growth fund has an array of options, from equities to investment grade bonds, private equity, property, even emerging market sovereign debt. But those are all growth assets. If there's no economic growth—if its flat—you don't get returns and correlations go to one.

????We have four categories of investments. The first is market type returns with a risk premium. The second is security selection, which isn't dependent on growth but good research. Third, direction strategies—by which I mean asset classes with no embedded risk premium, like currencies. And fourth, relative value. I'll give you an example of the last one. For several quarters, we have had the view in the portfolio that large cap stocks will outperform small cap, regardless of the direction of the market. They're cheaper, better financed, and they have better balance sheets. But we're not taking equity risk—we're buying the same amount of large cap as we are shorting small cap. We also like the Swiss over the German equity market.