????你認(rèn)為美元對(duì)歐元的走勢(shì)會(huì)怎樣？

????很難說(shuō)未來(lái)三個(gè)月美元對(duì)歐元會(huì)是什么樣的結(jié)果。但是我有一種強(qiáng)烈的預(yù)感，美元在未來(lái)3年內(nèi)對(duì)歐元將會(huì)升值。原因很多，包括歐元的結(jié)構(gòu)性問(wèn)題。我們成天聽到的這些與歐元有關(guān)的問(wèn)題將使得投資者對(duì)歐元的熱情大減。此外，隨著此輪危機(jī)的結(jié)束，歐元區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)將減緩。最終，人們會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)歐元價(jià)值被嚴(yán)重高估。

????對(duì)于黃金，你是做多還是做空？

????我們不投資黃金。雖然這并不是公司的規(guī)定，但是我們認(rèn)為黃金的避險(xiǎn)作用有被夸大的嫌疑。我們并不認(rèn)為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)目前正處于非常脆弱的時(shí)期，因此資本避風(fēng)港也并不是唯一能賺錢的地方。我們認(rèn)為有比黃金更好的投資載體。

????在投資組合中你們同時(shí)采取了25-30種投資策略。還請(qǐng)舉例介紹一下目前比較有意思的一種策略。

????名義上來(lái)說(shuō)，我們最大的倉(cāng)位是瑞典兩年期利率產(chǎn)品。但這是我們所承擔(dān)的最大 “風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”嗎？不是。我們?cè)诙砹_斯股市的倉(cāng)位也很大，接近基金的3%。而我們?cè)谌鸬鋬赡昶诶十a(chǎn)品中的投資達(dá)到了基金的30%。問(wèn)題在于，兩者中倉(cāng)位相對(duì)更大的是哪個(gè)？說(shuō)實(shí)話，答案很有可能是俄羅斯股市，因?yàn)榕c之相關(guān)的波動(dòng)性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更大。

????但是30%的基金都用于投資瑞典兩年期利率？無(wú)論如何，這是一個(gè)很大的倉(cāng)位。為什么會(huì)選擇瑞典？

????原因真的很簡(jiǎn)單。美國(guó)兩年期利率僅僅為0.2%。而瑞典為2.5%。澳大利亞超過(guò)了4%。美國(guó)太低，澳洲太高。而在中間水平，瑞典兩年期的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較低。即便風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)上漲，我們?nèi)阅苜嵉?.5%。但如果風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)跳水，我們將賺得盆滿缽盈。

????早些時(shí)候你提到過(guò)一些事情，非常有意思。你說(shuō)過(guò)你們不做套期保值。但是對(duì)于動(dòng)蕩的市場(chǎng)來(lái)說(shuō)，你們的基金不就是為了保值嗎？可以解釋一下這種矛盾嗎？

????我們制定的每一項(xiàng)策略都是為了獲得積極的回報(bào)。我們不會(huì)為了購(gòu)買所謂的“尾部”對(duì)沖風(fēng)險(xiǎn)工具而導(dǎo)致投資組合的凈收益為零。我們認(rèn)為每項(xiàng)策略都應(yīng)獲得回報(bào)。我們不會(huì)去做套期保值。而且我們?cè)诮M建投資組合的時(shí)候會(huì)考慮多方面的因素。當(dāng)然我們確實(shí)也會(huì)重點(diǎn)考慮經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、通脹以及就業(yè)，但是組建投資組合時(shí)我們會(huì)綜合考慮。因?yàn)槿绻覀冎豢紤]一個(gè)方面而又判斷失誤，投資組合的業(yè)績(jī)會(huì)令人失望。如果經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)急劇下滑，我們?cè)诠墒芯蜁?huì)賠錢，但是我們將在瑞典利率產(chǎn)品中獲得超乎尋常的收益。

????你認(rèn)為接下來(lái)會(huì)發(fā)生哪些出乎人們意料之外的事情。

????很抱歉，我實(shí)在無(wú)法預(yù)料接下來(lái)將發(fā)生的事情。你可以購(gòu)買全球穩(wěn)固策略基金，因?yàn)槲覀冏龅暮芎?。正是因?yàn)槭朗码y料，我們才需要組建投資組合。

????Dollar versus euro. Where do you come out?

????I have no idea where the dollar will be versus the euro over the next three months. But I do have a strong view that the dollar will appreciate over against the euro in over the next three years. There are a number of reasons, including structural problems in the euro—all of those problems we are hearing about all day every day in the euro theater will eventually make investors skittish about holding euros. Also, Euroland will grow slower as we start to move through the cycle. And finally, it's just grossly overvalued.

????Are you long or short gold?

????We don't invest in gold. There's no rule that says we can't, but we feel that gold has become little more than a safe haven. We don't have a view that says world is extraordinarily vulnerable right now and that the only place to make money is in a safe haven. We think there are better things to invest in than gold.

????You have 25 to 30 strategies in the portfolio at any one time. Give me an interesting one that you have on right now.

????Well, in nominal terms, our biggest position is exposure to Swedish two-year interest rates. But is it our biggest "risk?" No. We have a substantial position in Russian equities, about 3% of the fund. And we have almost 30% in Swedish two-year rates. The question is which one is a bigger position? Quite frankly, it's very possible that it's the Russian equities. There's more volatility and more risk associated with the position.

????But 30% in Swedish two-year rates? That's still a big position, no matter how you color it. Why Sweden?

????For a really simple reason. Sweden. U.S. two-year rates are just 0.2%. In Sweden, they're 2.5%. And in Australia, over 4%. Either the U.S. is far too low, or Australia is far too high. In the middle, though, Sweden has a low risk parameter attached to it. If risky assets rally, I'm still going to earn my 2.5%. But if they take a dive, we will make a lot of money.

????You said something interesting earlier, which was that you don't hedge. But isn't the whole point of your fund to be a hedge against market turmoil? Can you explain the contradiction?

????We design every strategy to have a positive payoff structure. We don't want to net out to zero by buying so-called "tail" hedges. We think every strategy should be rewarding. We don't hedge things away. And we're also not building the portfolio on a single point of view. We do have a central view of economic growth, inflation, and employment, but we're not building for a single scenario. If we didn't get it, the portfolio would disappoint. We own some equities in the portfolio. If there's a sharp downturn in the economy, we will lose on equities, but we will have a supra-normal return in Swedish rates.

????Tell me something people aren't expecting that you think is going to happen.

????I'm sorry to tell you, but I don't know what going to happen. You want to buy the GARS fund because that's what we do. We construct a portfolio for when we don't know what's next.