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《余震》的生意經(jīng):兜售全球經(jīng)濟末日論

《余震》的生意經(jīng):兜售全球經(jīng)濟末日論

Brendan Coffey 2011-09-06
韋德默兄弟的新書鼓吹新一輪的全球經(jīng)濟危機不可避免,但新書熱銷所帶來收入的只是蠅頭小利。新書給人們敲響了警鐘,精明的作者因勢利導(dǎo),順?biāo)浦?,乘勢搭建了一個價值數(shù)百萬美元的商業(yè)王國。

????《余震》???

????想在現(xiàn)今的市場上賺錢嗎?要做的就是預(yù)言市場將會每況愈下。至少這是末日論《余震:如何在新一輪全球金融危機中自保進而獲利》(Aftershock: Protect Yourself and Profit in the Next Global Financial Meltdown)一書作者的生財之道。該書的三位共同作者,大衛(wèi)?韋德默和羅伯特?韋德默兄弟以及辛迪?斯必茨,預(yù)測在即將到來的金融危機中,失業(yè)率將達到50%,股市將暴跌90%,年度通脹率將達到100%,因此建議人們應(yīng)及時變賣房產(chǎn),兌現(xiàn)人壽保單、拋售所持的股票。他們?nèi)爽F(xiàn)正通過這一途徑日進斗金。

????總而言之,《余震》一書認為一連串的泡沫已將國家推向崩潰的不歸路。首先是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫,然后是房地產(chǎn)泡沫?,F(xiàn)今,美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)對市場的“操縱”和“公共部門,即美國政府,極不負責(zé)任的態(tài)度和嚴(yán)重的誤判”將使拉美國家在2012年不可避免地出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重通脹。他們的建議就是:變賣一切資產(chǎn),然后購買黃金及與通脹掛鉤證券。

????《余震》一書現(xiàn)已發(fā)行了第二版。該書在上個月一直位居亞馬遜網(wǎng)站(Amazon.com)商業(yè)書籍銷量前五。基于此書,右傾媒體Newsmax新聞網(wǎng)發(fā)起了一場聲勢浩大的宣傳活動。該書也成為了美國有線新聞網(wǎng)(CNN)、??怂梗‵ox)和CNBC電視臺各大名嘴熱議的話題。這一切都使得該書的銷量節(jié)節(jié)攀升。據(jù)出版商John Wiley & Sons公司透露,新增的20萬冊已在印刷當(dāng)中。

????該書的版稅將達到80萬美元左右(版稅按書價的15%計算),然而比起三人在副業(yè)當(dāng)中的收益,這一數(shù)字微不足道。據(jù)大衛(wèi)?韋德默透露,該書為總部位于馬里蘭州貝塞斯塔市的投資管理公司Absolute Investment Management帶來了1億美元的資產(chǎn)進賬。兄弟二人曾是該公司的合伙人,現(xiàn)任公司的董事總經(jīng)理。除此之外,有1,000多人已花錢購買韋德默兄弟的投資咨詢服務(wù),年費為399美元。隨著讀者的增加,這一數(shù)字還在進一步加速增長當(dāng)中。(書中經(jīng)常號召讀者加入兄弟二人的投資隊伍)

????現(xiàn)在,兄弟二人又有新動作,兩人的新作——《余震中的投資指南》(Aftershock Investment Guide)一書將于明年春天面世。Newsmax新聞網(wǎng)與羅伯特達成了咨詢服務(wù)協(xié)議,目的是通過贈閱《余震》一書來招攬該書的讀者訂閱該新聞網(wǎng)的電子版投資通訊。該書位于佛羅里達州西棕櫚灘的出版商聲稱,最近有100萬人觀看了該公司主辦的“余震求生之道峰會”(Aftershock Survival Summit),而且該出版商在活動幾周前在華爾街日報(Wall Street Journal)還刊登了整版廣告。羅伯特在峰會的錄像中言之鑿鑿地預(yù)測了未來的低迷前景,其間穿插播放的畫面則充斥著奧巴馬以及身著清潔工作服和快餐店服裝的老人。然而大衛(wèi)的理想更為遠大,他說“我很想成立一個共同基金”。

????雖然找到了發(fā)家致富的法寶,但是韋德默兄弟并未因此而變得不切實際。兄弟倆現(xiàn)在仍經(jīng)營著位于弗吉尼亞累斯頓市的商業(yè)評估中心(Business Valuation Center),在該書熱銷之前,該中心的業(yè)務(wù)在很大程度上依賴于政府扶持。 2006年以來,小企業(yè)管理局(Small Business Administration)總共向該中心支付198萬美元用于評估潛在捐贈接受方的財務(wù)情況。但是大衛(wèi)說這項資產(chǎn)管理業(yè)務(wù)目前運營得非常成功,所以他們正在逐步減少政府的資助?!?/p>

??

????Want to make money in this market? Just predict the market is just going to get much, much worse. At least that's the very profitable tack the writers of a doom-and-gloom tome, Aftershock: Protect Yourself and Profit in the Next Global Financial Meltdown are taking. The three co-authors, brothers David and Robert Wiedemer, and Cindy Spitzer, are raking in a multimillion-dollar payday by advising people to sell their homes now, cash out their life insurance policies, and dump their stocks ahead of what they predict will be 50% unemployment, a 90% stock market crash, and 100% annual inflation.

????In a nutshell, Aftershock argues that a succession of bubbles have set the country on the path to ruin. First came the dotcom bubble, then the housing bubble. Now Federal Reserve market "manipulation" and the "incredible irresponsibility and bad judgment of the public sector" -- i.e. the U.S. government -- make banana republic inflation levels inevitable starting in 2012. Their advice: Sell everything, and pile into gold and inflation-linked securities.

????Aftershock, now in its second edition, has spent the past month in the top five selling business books on Amazon.com (AMZN). It is the basis for a massive publicity campaign for right-leaning media outfit Newsmax, and it provides fodder for talking heads on CNN, Fox, and CNBC. All that has been good for sales -- publisher John Wiley & Sons says 200,000 copies are now in print.

????But the $800,000 or so in book royalties the authors may receive (based on a standard 15% cover price royalty rate) pales in comparison to the trio's ancillary businesses: David Wiedemer told me the book is responsible for $100 million in assets flowing into Absolute Investment Management, a Bethesda, Md.-based money manager with whom the brothers partnered and where they are now managing directors. On top of that, 1,000 people have paid an annual fee of $399 to receive the Wiedemers' investment advice, a number that is growing faster as more people read the book. (Periodic exhortations to subscribe and invest with them pepper the chapters.)

????Now the brothers are branching out. Next up is a follow-up book , the Aftershock Investment Guide, due out next spring. Robert has a consulting deal with Newsmax, which is giving away copies of Aftershock to entice its own readers to subscribe to its own investment newsletters. The West Palm Beach, Fla.-based publisher claims one million people watched a recent "Aftershock Survival Summit" it hosted and publicized a few weeks ago with a full-page Wall Street Journal ad. In the video of the summit, Robert enunciates dire predictions between shots of Obama and elderly people wearing janitor and fast food uniforms. David is thinking bigger. "I'd really like to do a mutual fund," he says.

????But the Wiedemers seem less ideologues than two guys who finally found a bubble they can make money from. Before the success of their book, the brothers' day jobs were heavily dependent on government largesse: They still run the Business Valuation Center, a Reston, Va.-based outfit that the Small Business Administration has paid $1.98 million since 2006 to provide financial valuations of potential grant recipients. But David says the asset management business is so successful they are "sort of phasing that down."

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