《余震》的生意經(jīng):兜售全球經(jīng)濟(jì)末日論
????在成為政府顧問之前,擁有威斯康星大學(xué)麥迪遜分校(the University of Wisconsin-Madison)工商管理碩士學(xué)位的羅伯特,曾開了一家名為Pricesaroundtheworld.com的網(wǎng)站,結(jié)果成了互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫的炮灰(《余震》一書中嘲笑互聯(lián)網(wǎng)時(shí)代“泡沫一代”高管們的素材可能就來自于這段經(jīng)歷)。在過去的8年當(dāng)中,他一直擔(dān)任通訊公司Proxim Wireless的董事會(huì)成員,該公司在場(chǎng)外電子交易板交易,并于2004年草率收購了Ricochet公司(保爾?阿倫曾于90年代通過該公司在各大城市推廣無線網(wǎng)絡(luò))。 ????在90年代,兄弟二人合伙建立并經(jīng)營(yíng)Imark Technologies公司,這家在納斯達(dá)克上市的公司籍籍無名,大衛(wèi)在書中的自傳部分提到自己曾在這家公司擔(dān)任的首席執(zhí)行官。 Imark公司主要為出版公司提供CD-Rom資源。1998年,該公司制定的由出版商通過網(wǎng)絡(luò)銷售CD-Rom數(shù)據(jù)的商業(yè)計(jì)劃以失敗告終,公司也隨之壽終正寢。然而自傳當(dāng)中對(duì)此事只字未提。 ????《余震》的第三位共同作者辛迪?斯必茨透露,她曾為《心靈雞湯》(Chicken Soup)原著的部分內(nèi)容代筆?!队嗾稹返臅怙@示她現(xiàn)在是余震顧問公司(Aftershock Consultants)的總裁,該公司主要向個(gè)人或公司提供有關(guān)此書的解讀服務(wù)。在就任該職之前,她與多瑞?琳博士在去年年底共同編寫了《成人性事》(Sex for Grownups)一書。 ????這些背景并不能說明韋德默兄弟關(guān)于金融災(zāi)難的預(yù)言就是錯(cuò)誤的。大衛(wèi)的確從威斯康辛大學(xué)(the University of Wisconsin)拿到了經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士學(xué)位,而且這三人的第一本書《美國(guó)的泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì)》(America's Bubble Economy)是一本相對(duì)嚴(yán)肅的書籍,書中也確實(shí)指出了美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)所存在的不平衡性。但是當(dāng)韋德默兄弟以此書的觀點(diǎn)來炫耀自己獨(dú)到的經(jīng)濟(jì)眼光和投資技巧時(shí),他們其實(shí)更多地在證明營(yíng)銷的威力?!睹绹?guó)的泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì)》一書希望讓讀者了解“泡沫在經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展中所扮演的角色?!比欢聲队嗾稹穮s傳達(dá)了一個(gè)更為直白的信息:“新一輪全球金融危機(jī)來臨之前還有時(shí)間來保護(hù)你自己、你的家人和你的生意”。 ????不過,兜售末日觀點(diǎn)頗有些諷刺意味,因?yàn)閭€(gè)人投資者都是墻頭草,而且投資電子通訊和顧問服務(wù)的更新率與市場(chǎng)動(dòng)向時(shí)刻保持步調(diào)一致。資產(chǎn)管理也是一樣。如果韋德默兄弟所預(yù)言的經(jīng)濟(jì)地震發(fā)生,韋德默兄弟將失去所有的收入來源,或至少絕大部分來源。大衛(wèi)表示:“人們總還是要投資的,蛋糕雖然會(huì)變小,但是我們分到的份額會(huì)變大。” |
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????Before consulting for the government, Robert, who has an MBA in marketing from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, tried his hand running Pricesaroundtheworld.com, a dotcom-era bust. (The experience may be the source of the scorn Aftershock heaps upon Internet-era "Bubble babies" executives.) For the past eight years, he has been on the board of Proxim Wireless, a bulletin board-traded communications firm that in 2004 ill-advisedly scooped up the carcass of Ricochet, a 1990s Paul Allen effort to bring Wi-Fi to cities. ????Also in the 1990s, the brothers co-founded and ran Imark Technologies, the unnamed "Nasdaq-listed company" in which David's book biography mentions he was CEO. The bio fails to note that Imark, which provided CD-Rom resources to publishing companies, went bankrupt in 1998 when a business plan to get publishers to sell CD-Rom data over the Internet foundered. ????Aftershock's third co-author, Cindy Spitzer, says she ghostwrote part of the original Chicken Soup for the Soul. According to Aftershock's book jacket, she is now president of Aftershock Consultants, which provides insights to individuals and companies based on the book. Just before taking on that title she co-wrote Sex for Grownups with Dr. Doree Lynn late last year. ????All of this background doesn't mean the Wiedemers might not be correct that we're racing toward a financial catastrophe. David does have a PhD in Economics from the University of Wisconsin, and the trio's first book, the far more sedate America's Bubble Economy, did point out the imbalance in the housing market. But while the Wiedemers use the claims of their first book as proof of their economic and investing prowess, it's really more correctly proof of the power of marketing. America's Bubble Economy told readers it would "look at how the bubbles are a part of the long-term evolution of the economy and society." With the new edition of Aftershock the message has gotten a lot less oblique: "There is still time to protect yourself, your family, and your business in the next global money meltdown." ????The irony with selling the apocalypse is that individual investors are a fickle lot -- renewal rates to investment newsletters and advice services move in lockstep with how the market is doing. The same is true with asset management. Should the economic hell the Wiedemers predict come to pass, it would dry up all of their revenue sources. Or almost all of them. "They've always got to invest in something," notes David. "We'll get a bigger share of a smaller pie." |