????歐洲避免債務(wù)災(zāi)難的機(jī)會(huì)正在迅速消失。隨著10月份最后期限的日益臨近，希臘終于在上周末同意大幅削減預(yù)算，以求獲得110億美元得救助資金。希臘債務(wù)不斷攀升，如果沒(méi)有這些救助資金，違約將在所難免。

????救助希臘已經(jīng)演變成了一場(chǎng)代價(jià)高昂的亂局，于是官員們提出了“有序違約”的主意。德國(guó)財(cái)長(zhǎng)菲利普?羅斯勒就公開表達(dá)了這一觀點(diǎn)。顯而易見(jiàn)，提到破產(chǎn)純粹只是為了安撫全球投資者。

????德國(guó)總理默克爾對(duì)BBC新聞稱，歐元區(qū)國(guó)家必須團(tuán)結(jié)一致，目前還沒(méi)有任何方法可以讓希臘以軟著陸的方式違約。默克爾可能一直在試圖減輕投資者的憂慮，但現(xiàn)在大多數(shù)人已經(jīng)看清了事實(shí)真相：雖然希臘尚未正式宣布破產(chǎn)，但該國(guó)已經(jīng)開始為其所希望的有序違約做準(zhǔn)備。

????有序違約相當(dāng)于債務(wù)重組，也就是債權(quán)人接受部分損失，同時(shí)債務(wù)人同意償還大部分債務(wù)。7月份，歐盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人同意了金額超過(guò)1,500億美元的希臘救助計(jì)劃，以幫助希臘滿足今后幾年的融資需求。該計(jì)劃的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵內(nèi)容（尚待最后批準(zhǔn)）是債券掉期交易。在這一交易中，希臘債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)得以減輕，同時(shí)該國(guó)私營(yíng)部門的債權(quán)人同意接受價(jià)值低于原先所持債券的新債券。

????此前，曾有其他國(guó)家成功實(shí)現(xiàn)有序違約的先例。那么，希臘、愛(ài)爾蘭、意大利和其他陷入麻煩的歐元區(qū)國(guó)家是否也能做到呢？從普遍飆升的歐洲外圍國(guó)家國(guó)債收益率來(lái)看，這似乎不太可能。

????發(fā)展中國(guó)家曾經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)了有序違約。比如，上世紀(jì)80年代晚期和90年代早期，由于拉丁美洲國(guó)家屢次貸款違約，為了減輕他們的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)，布雷迪債券（Brady bonds）應(yīng)運(yùn)而生。

????烏克蘭和巴基斯坦也曾發(fā)生過(guò)有序違約。還有2003年時(shí)的烏拉圭，該國(guó)成功實(shí)施了出于自愿的債券掉期交易。在這一交易中，烏拉圭政府把幾年內(nèi)到期的債券換成了較晚到期的類似債券。這一舉措足以令投資者相信，烏拉圭的問(wèn)題只是暫時(shí)的，隨著時(shí)間的推移，該國(guó)情況將會(huì)好轉(zhuǎn)，因?yàn)槠浣?jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)前景依然良好。

????The opportunity for debt-troubled Europe to avoid a disaster is shrinking. Fast. Over the weekend, Greek leaders struggled to agree to a set of radical budget cuts as the country approaches an October deadline to qualify for $11 billion in aid without which it will certainly default on its growing debt.

????As the bailout of Greece spirals into a costly mess, officials have raised the idea of an "orderly default." Germany's economy minister Philipp Roesler publicly introduced the concept and, needless to say, the mere mention of bankruptcy was anything but calming for global investors.

????German Chancellor Angela Merkel stepped in, telling BBC News that the eurozone must stick together and that there aren't any procedures underway to ease Greece into a default that promises a softer landing. Merkel may have been trying to allay investors' fears, but most now see it for what it is: Greece is already preparing for what it hopes will be an orderly default, even though the country has not yet technically declared bankruptcy.

????An orderly default is equivalent to restructuring debt -- whereby creditors accept a loss while debtors agree to pay most of its debts. In July, European Union leaders agreed to a rescue plan for Greece worth more than $150 billion, which would help it cover its financing needs for the next several years. One of the key elements of the plan, which is awaiting final approval, is a bond swap deal in which Greece's debt burden is reduced, while the country's private-sector creditors agree to accept new bonds worth less than their original holdings.

????In the past, other nations have pulled off orderly defaults successfully. Could Greece, Ireland, Italy and other troubled nations in the eurozone do the same? Judging by the general surge in bond yields of the peripheral countries, it looks less likely.

????Developing nations have completed orderly defaults before. For instance, the Brady bonds in the late 1980s and early 1990s arose from an effort to reduce debt held by mostly Latin American countries that were frequently defaulting on loans.

????The Ukraine and Pakistan have also defaulted in orderly fashion. So did Uruguay in 2003. The country successfully did a voluntary bond swap in which the government offered to exchange bonds coming due in a few years for similar ones that matured later. The move was enough to convince investors that its problems were temporary and that with time, Uruguay would be better off since its growth prospects were strong.