????但對于希臘，經(jīng)濟界人士認為，救助計劃所要求的財政緊縮措施將會拉低其經(jīng)濟增長速度，削弱該國在未來多年內(nèi)的競爭力。另外，工業(yè)化國家實行有序違約沒有先例，這也是歐元區(qū)事態(tài)令投資者感到擔憂的原因之一。

????“人們曾認為，工業(yè)化國家的債務是安全的。這種觀點是債券市場的主要支柱之一，”彼得森國際經(jīng)濟研究所（Peterson Institute for International Economics）的雅各布?柯克加德說?！暗F(xiàn)在市場開始懷疑，如果希臘國債存在風險，那么其他工業(yè)化國家的國債也可能會面臨同樣的問題。”

祈禱軟著陸

????人們希望，如果歐債危機惡化，將催生更大規(guī)模的救助資金，比如大幅擴大歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金（the European Financial Stability Facility）。意大利是歐元區(qū)最大的債務人之一，其沉重的債務令歐洲銀行的健康狀況受到質(zhì)疑，因為這些銀行購買了大量的意大利國債。現(xiàn)在的問題在于，歐洲的緊急救助資金遠遠不夠，僅能支持希臘、葡萄牙和愛爾蘭這樣的小國。

????金融家兼商人喬治?索羅斯說，歐債危機曝露了歐元的一個明顯弱點，也就是在歐元的結(jié)構(gòu)中缺乏一個共同的金庫。雖然歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金的任務就是為整個歐元區(qū)提供安全保障，但它卻只能籌集資金；至于這筆錢如何使用，則是成員國政府說了算。

????“這使得歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金在應對危機方面毫無用處。它必須等待成員國發(fā)號施令，”索羅斯本月早些時候在《紐約書評》（The New York Review of Books）上撰文稱。

????毫無疑問，歐元區(qū)領(lǐng)導人確實在某種程度上擴大了歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金，但在7月份舉行的峰會上，他們拒絕了更大膽的擴充方案。大規(guī)模擴大歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金將有助于使全球市場相信，該基金有能力應對任何問題——甚至是意大利的債務。但包括法國和德國在內(nèi)的幾個關(guān)鍵國家反對擴大該基金。這是可以理解的，因為如果向陷入困境的歐洲國家注入更多資金，某些國家的財政狀況就會吃緊，而面臨著選民不滿情緒的國家則可能出現(xiàn)政治動蕩。

????然而，國際國幣基金組織（International Monetary Fund）向歐元區(qū)領(lǐng)導人強調(diào)，大規(guī)模擴大歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金勢在必行。雖然目前還不知道國際貨幣基金組織的言論會有多大影響力，但該組織或許會在解決歐債危機方面分擔部分融資壓力，而這種可能性會為大規(guī)模擴大歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金爭取到更多的支持。

????無論是有序還是無序違約，都無法安撫市場。但擴大歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金卻有可能讓焦慮不安的投資者平靜下來。

????譯者：千牛絮

????But for Greece, economists believe austerity measures attached to its rescue package will slow economic growth and weaken the country's competitiveness for years to come. What's more, orderly defaults in industrialized nations are essentially unprecedented, which partly explains why investors are so spooked by what's happening in the eurozone.

????"One of the founding pillars is this concept that the debt of industrialized countries is risk free," says Jacob Funk Kirkegaard of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "Markets are asking if it turns out there's risk in Greece maybe there are other countries in the industrialized world that face the same issues."

Hope for a soft landing

????One of the big hopes, if the eurozone's debt crisis worsens, is that it would force a larger rescue fund, such as dramatic expansion of the European Financial Stability Facility. Italy is one of the eurozone's biggest debtors and its heavy debts have raised questions about the health of European banks, which have bought bundles of Italian bonds. The problem is that Europe's emergency bailout resources are far from enough to support anything more than smaller countries such as Greece, Portugal and Ireland.

????One of the glaring weaknesses that the debt crisis has exposed is the lack of a common treasury in the construction of the euro, financier and businessman George Soros has said. While the EFSF is tasked with providing a safety net for the eurozone as a whole, the fund merely has the ability to raise money, leaving governments of member countries with authority over how to spend it.

????"This renders the EFSF useless in responding to a crisis; it has to await instruction from the member countries," Soros wrote earlier this month in The New York Review of Books.

????To be sure, eurozone leaders did widen the EFSF some but refused other bigger expansions during a summit in July. Committing much more money would likely have helped convince global markets that the fund is big enough to can handle just about anything -- even Italy. Several key governments, including France and Berlin, oppose strengthening the fund. And understandably so, since agreeing to pledging ever-growing sums of money to weak European states could strain the finances of some governments while causing political havoc for those dealing with disgruntled voters.

????Nevertheless, the International Monetary Fund has urged eurozone leaders that a much bigger fund is needed. It remains to be seen how much influence the global lender has, but perhaps the possibility that the organization might share some of the financial burden in resolving the crisis could bring more support for a much grander EFSF.

????A default -- however orderly or disorderly -- hasn't been able to calm markets. Spooked investors might likely find calm in an expanded EFSF.