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風(fēng)投高手:如何識(shí)別清潔技術(shù)領(lǐng)域的千里馬

風(fēng)投高手:如何識(shí)別清潔技術(shù)領(lǐng)域的千里馬

Matthew Nordan 2011年09月22日
要想看清清潔技術(shù)的未來,我們必須了解過去。

????兩年前,我投身風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資行業(yè),重點(diǎn)關(guān)注清潔技術(shù)類初創(chuàng)公司。這就像是通過觀看八年級(jí)學(xué)生(譯注——相當(dāng)于中國(guó)的初二學(xué)生)打籃球來發(fā)掘未來的NBA球員:他們還需要很多年的時(shí)間來成長(zhǎng),一旦他們真的成長(zhǎng)起來,情況就會(huì)大不一樣。選擇的關(guān)鍵之處在于出色的模式識(shí)別——早在成功到來之前就找到相應(yīng)的征兆。

????清潔技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資領(lǐng)域里的同行大多來自于其他領(lǐng)域,通常是半導(dǎo)體或通信行業(yè),他們?cè)谀J阶R(shí)別方面的偏好也帶著這些行業(yè)的烙印。我不禁想問:“要是大家的偏好都錯(cuò)了,該如何是好?”要是我們?cè)谶x拔苗子的時(shí)后看走了眼,該怎么辦?

????我曾從事于技術(shù)分析工作,因此我希望找到一種基于事實(shí)的方法來找到這個(gè)問題的答案。于是,我選擇了一批成功的、獲得風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資的初創(chuàng)公司,試圖找出他們的共同點(diǎn)。我所選擇的初創(chuàng)公司:

????? 已經(jīng)取得了明顯的成功。我將“成功”定義為在大型股票交易所上市。我知道,這個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)稱不上完美,但至少是清晰明確的。

????? 在2000年之后上市。這是為了把那些在1998-99年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫時(shí)期搭便車上市的能源公司排除在外。

????? 得到了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資機(jī)構(gòu)的支持。請(qǐng)注意,絕大多數(shù)的清潔技術(shù)上市公司實(shí)際上都沒有得到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資。

????到目前為止,我選擇了18家公司作為樣本:

????I entered the venture capital business two years ago, focusing on cleantech start-ups. It's kind of like picking a future NBA draft by watching eighth graders play basketball: There are many years worth of development to go, and the subjects will look a lot different once they're all grown up. The key is excellent pattern recognition – identifying the antecedents of success long before it happens.

????Most of my fellow cleantech VCs came to this field from some other domain – often semiconductors or telecom – and brought their pattern recognition biases along with them. The question I found myself asking was "What if everyone's biases are wrong?" What if we're picking the wrong eighth graders?

????Coming from a career in the tech analyst business, I wanted to find a fact-based way to answer the question, so I assembled a set of successful VC-backed start-ups and looked for what they had in common. I picked companies that:

????? Had achieved unambiguous success, which I defined as an IPO on a major exchange. That's far from a perfect criterion, I know, but at least it's clear-cut.

????? Went public after 2000, to rule out the boomlet of '98-'99 energy IPOs (when the Internet bubble's rising tide lifted all boats).

????? Were backed by institutional VC. Note that the majority of public cleantech companies have, in fact, not been venture-funded.

????As of today, this sample consists of 18 companies:

(毫無疑問,有些數(shù)據(jù)存在錯(cuò)誤,請(qǐng)讀者在評(píng)論中加以指正,我會(huì)統(tǒng)一進(jìn)行修正。事先聲明,我把每家公司的前身也考慮在內(nèi),因此第一太陽能公司的成立時(shí)間有所提前。)

????上面這份名單能告訴我們什么?平均來看,這些清潔技術(shù)初創(chuàng)公司的好苗子:

????? 通過發(fā)行股票籌集了1.22億美元。其中不包括補(bǔ)貼和債務(wù)。融資規(guī)模相差很大,但如果把Q-Cells公司和REC公司作為特例排除在外,它們的融資規(guī)模都不低于3,000萬美元。如果某份新的商業(yè)計(jì)劃提出了比這個(gè)數(shù)字更低的生命周期資金需求,必須有無懈可擊的理由來加以證明。

????? 上市時(shí)估值達(dá)到9億美元。估值差別也很大。假如投資者在這些公司上市時(shí)持有80%的股份,這些股份將帶來5.9倍的投資回報(bào)率。

????? 從成立到上市需要8.3年。清潔技術(shù)公司從成立到上市大概需要10年時(shí)間。但請(qǐng)注意,那些在2010年后上市的公司所需時(shí)間較短,平均為6.7年。這類初創(chuàng)公司在成立時(shí)或成立后不久就獲得了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資;相比之下,前者常常在自力更生了數(shù)年之后方才得到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資。

????? 在1/50的成功率中幸存下來。這18家公司在1995年至2007年間首次獲得風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資行業(yè)追蹤機(jī)構(gòu)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資源(VentureSource)的資料顯示,清潔技術(shù)行業(yè)在此期間共進(jìn)行了986次種子融資或首輪融資。毫無疑問,今后將有更多的初創(chuàng)公司獲得成功,尤其是最近幾年獲得了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資的初創(chuàng)公司。但到目前為止,得到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資支持的初創(chuàng)公司成功率僅為18/986,也就是1.8%。

????如果將某些財(cái)務(wù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)考慮在內(nèi),我們可以了解到更多情況。平均來看,這些獲得成功的清潔技術(shù)公司:

????What can we learn from this? The average NBA draft pick of cleantech:

????? Raised $122 million in equity financing, which excludes grants and debt. The distribution is pretty broad, but I'd note that if you remove Q-Cells and REC as special cases, the floor is ~ $30MM. If a new business plan poses a lower lifetime cash requirement, there should be an airtight argument to justify that claim.

????? Went public at a ~ $900 million valuation, also with a broad distribution. If you assumed that investors owned, say, 80% of these companies at the IPO, the lot would have delivered a 5.9x return on capital invested.

????? Took 8.3 years from founding to IPO. If you're signing up to build a cleantech winner, reserve a decade. Note, however, that this elapsed time has shortened for companies that have gone public since 2010, where it averages 6.7 years. Start-ups in this later group received venture financing either right at their founding or soon after it, in contrast to earlier companies which often bootstrapped themselves for years before taking venture capital.

????? Survived a 1-in-50 success rate. These 18 companies received their first venture investment between 1995 and 2007. A quick VentureSource search indicates 986 seed/Series A rounds done in cleantech during that period. While there are doubtless further successes to come, particularly from start-ups funded in the later years, the yield so far is 18 / 986 or a 1.8% of start-ups funded.

????If we include some financial metrics, we learn a bit more. The average cleantech winner also:

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