????意大利政府債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)極為沉重，相當(dāng)于其國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的120%，許多人認(rèn)為，在這樣一個(gè)國(guó)家推行緊縮政策是件好事。可是，緊縮政策分很多種。在意大利的一攬子緊縮計(jì)劃中，該國(guó)政府并未觸及棘手的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)改革，只是簡(jiǎn)單地提高了稅收并削減政府工作崗位。

????事實(shí)上，根據(jù)瑞銀集團(tuán)（UBS）的分析，550億美元的緊縮計(jì)劃中約三分之二都來自稅率提高。此舉將會(huì)嚴(yán)重壓抑經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，其負(fù)面作用比降低政府開支更突出。此外，已批準(zhǔn)的減支方案將使數(shù)以千計(jì)的政府雇員失業(yè)，失業(yè)率恐將繼續(xù)攀升，進(jìn)一步拖累經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。

????僅僅靠削減支出和提高稅，就想使一個(gè)國(guó)家走出經(jīng)濟(jì)困境，幾乎是不可能實(shí)現(xiàn)的目標(biāo)，走出困境的動(dòng)力必須是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，而對(duì)意大利和其他歐元區(qū)邊緣國(guó)家來說，增長(zhǎng)看起來越發(fā)遙不可及。難道還需要新的例子來證明這一點(diǎn)嗎？看看過去18個(gè)月來希臘發(fā)生了什么事吧：歐洲央行和國(guó)際貨幣基金組織推行嚴(yán)厲的緊縮措施，迫使該國(guó)政府裁掉數(shù)以千計(jì)的政府雇員，并提高稅收，給國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)造成了災(zāi)難性后果。2010年希臘國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值萎縮了6%，今年第二季度又萎縮了7.3%——形勢(shì)之惡劣遠(yuǎn)超任何人的想象。

????歐洲央行和國(guó)際貨幣基金組織正就給希臘的新一輪援助進(jìn)行辯論，為了獲得這筆款項(xiàng)，希臘必須裁掉更多政府雇員，并推出一項(xiàng)特別財(cái)產(chǎn)稅，嘗試達(dá)成上述機(jī)構(gòu)設(shè)定的財(cái)政目標(biāo)。這將進(jìn)一步降低希臘的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率，使其政府收入無法達(dá)到目標(biāo)，被迫尋求新的援助。這種惡性循環(huán)非?？膳?，正因?yàn)榇?，市?chǎng)走勢(shì)表明投資者認(rèn)為希臘幾乎肯定會(huì)在近期發(fā)生債務(wù)違約。

????盡管意大利的情況還不像希臘那么糟，它很可能重蹈其地中海鄰國(guó)的覆轍。要避免這一后果，意大利必須進(jìn)行真正的結(jié)構(gòu)性經(jīng)濟(jì)改革。意大利可以從勞動(dòng)法的改革著手，該國(guó)現(xiàn)行法律使招聘和解雇員工都非常困難。

????意大利還可以降低政府在本國(guó)最大的幾家公司中的持股比例，以此吸引外國(guó)直接投資，從而促進(jìn)增長(zhǎng)。該國(guó)還應(yīng)當(dāng)明智地遠(yuǎn)離制造業(yè)，將服務(wù)業(yè)作為國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱——美國(guó)三十年前痛苦地實(shí)現(xiàn)了這一結(jié)構(gòu)性變革。為此，意大利必須在科技和其他二十一世紀(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)引擎上增加投入。

????標(biāo)普向意大利發(fā)出的信號(hào)很明確：增長(zhǎng)速度是關(guān)乎經(jīng)濟(jì)生死存亡的關(guān)鍵。對(duì)于其他國(guó)家來說，無論是否屬于歐元區(qū)，若不想在不久的將來遭到降級(jí)厄運(yùn)，領(lǐng)會(huì)這一信號(hào)無疑也是明智之舉。

????譯者：小宇

????One would think that austerity would be a good thing for a nation with a crushing debt load that's 120% of its GDP like it is in Italy. But not all austerity is the same. Instead of making tough structural changes to the Italian economy in its austerity package, the Italian state decided to simply raise taxes and cut jobs.

????In fact, around two-thirds of the 55 billion euro austerity plan will come from higher taxes, according to UBS. That will have a more depressive effect on growth than lower expenditures. Furthermore, the cuts in spending that were approved could cost thousands of workers their jobs, further slowing growth as unemployment grows.

????It is almost impossible for a country to work itself out of an economic hole by slashing spending and raising taxes alone. It needs to grow its way out of the hole, something that looks increasingly difficult for Italy and other members of the eurozone periphery. To see an example of this, one needs to just look at what has occurred in Greece over the last 18 months. Harsh austerity measures pushed on the country by the ECB and IMF forced the country to lay off thousands of workers and raise taxes. This has had a devastating effect on the Greek economy. Its GDP shrank 6% in 2010 and 7.3% in the second quarter of this year -- far worse than anyone imagined.

????To get its next round of bailout money, which is currently being debated, the country has had to slash even more jobs and institute a special tax on property to try and meet fiscal targets from the ECB and IMF. This will further lower growth rates in the country, causing it to miss revenue targets and potentially force it to seek further bailouts. This downward spiral is why the market is pricing in an almost certain Greek default sometime in the near future.

????While Italy isn't as bad as Greece, it could very well fall into the same trap that has ensnared its Mediterranean neighbor. To avoid this outcome, Italy needs to make real structural changes to its economy, starting with reformation of its labor laws, which makes it very difficult to hire and fire workers.

????The country could also boost growth by reducing public ownership in some of its largest corporations to encourage foreign direct investment. Italy would also be wise to steer its economy away from manufacturing and toward services. This structural shift, which the U.S. undertook painfully 30 years ago, should include higher spending on technology and other 21st century economic growth engines.

????S&P has sent a clear message to Italy that growth is key to its economic survival. It is a message that other nations, both inside and outside the eurozone, would be wise to listen to if they want to avoid a downgrade in the near future.