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歐洲亟需更大規(guī)模的救助

歐洲亟需更大規(guī)模的救助

Cyrus Sanati 2011-10-19
市場(chǎng)最終將不得不考慮歐洲救助基金耗盡后將會(huì)出現(xiàn)什么局面。如果歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金未能實(shí)現(xiàn)擴(kuò)容,可能將加進(jìn)一步深市場(chǎng)焦慮情緒,使歐洲重新回到起點(diǎn)。

????擺在桌面上的第一個(gè)問題是希臘及其未償債務(wù)。今年夏天,多家銀行和歐洲人終于無奈地同意將希臘債務(wù)余額凈現(xiàn)值削減21%,但這一比例現(xiàn)在看來還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠。由于經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷,希臘根本無力按計(jì)劃償付債務(wù)。知情人士稱,歐洲領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人們現(xiàn)在正在討論是否將希臘的減債幅度提高到50-60%。還有說法是干脆將減值的希臘債券換成EFSF發(fā)行的面值低一些的新債券。

????兩項(xiàng)策略都遭到歐洲銀行業(yè)的竭力反對(duì)。作為這些有毒債務(wù)的大債主們,銀行業(yè)反對(duì)進(jìn)一步減免希臘的債務(wù),因?yàn)榇伺e可能損害銀行的清償能力。希臘當(dāng)然只是冰山一角。從第一天開始就有擔(dān)憂,擔(dān)心一旦市場(chǎng)接受對(duì)希臘進(jìn)行大規(guī)模救助,將引發(fā)多米諾效應(yīng),銀行業(yè)將不得不減免所有歐元區(qū)邊緣國(guó)家的債務(wù)。銀行業(yè)將進(jìn)一步減免債務(wù)的說法一出,市場(chǎng)早已開始推低一家銀行的股價(jià),即德克夏銀行(Dexi)。由于貨幣市場(chǎng)風(fēng)聲鶴唳令其短期資金吃緊,這家法國(guó)-比利時(shí)銀行上周被迫尋求大規(guī)模的政府救助。

????但相比德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)和法國(guó)興業(yè)銀行(Societe Generale),德克夏銀行就不值一提了。這兩家銀行持有的政府和商業(yè)債務(wù)都遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于德克夏銀行,同時(shí)還面臨著同樣的短期資金緊張。銀行擔(dān)心任何迫使它們削減主權(quán)債務(wù)的政府行動(dòng)都會(huì)在市場(chǎng)中引發(fā)新一輪拋售,拖低所有歐洲銀行股。

????歐洲領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人們相信如果強(qiáng)制銀行業(yè)將資產(chǎn)中的現(xiàn)金比例從當(dāng)前最低5%提高至9%,信心將能得到恢復(fù)。因?yàn)楦鼜?qiáng)大的緩沖機(jī)制有利于銀行消化進(jìn)一步削減主權(quán)債務(wù)帶來的壓力,化解市場(chǎng)對(duì)其清償能力的疑慮。

????銀行業(yè)顯然不愿意。德意志銀行的首席執(zhí)行官約瑟夫?阿克曼上周稱,強(qiáng)制銀行業(yè)增加資本金會(huì)起到反作用,投資者將很難接受進(jìn)一步削減希臘債務(wù)。阿克曼不快的原因很明顯。因?yàn)槠仁广y行削減希臘債務(wù),同時(shí)要求它們持有更多現(xiàn)金,將從兩頭擠壓銀行的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。

大型銀行困境

????為了避免進(jìn)一步的損失,解決這場(chǎng)危機(jī),歐洲需要最終拿出他們的現(xiàn)金火箭炮,向歐元區(qū)銀行體系輸血。EFSF之前的擴(kuò)容是為了滿足歐元區(qū)邊緣成員國(guó)的財(cái)政資金需求,因?yàn)樗鼈冊(cè)诜枪_市場(chǎng)中進(jìn)行債務(wù)融資的難度日益增大。然而,目前EFSF的授權(quán)和規(guī)模都需要擴(kuò)大,涵蓋向銀行注資的任務(wù)。

????如果放任不管,銀行業(yè)可能會(huì)通過縮減貸款來提高資本充足率,而不是折價(jià)發(fā)行新股或出售資產(chǎn)。這會(huì)損害早已疲弱的歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)。為了避免這樣的局面,在迫使銀行業(yè)減免債務(wù)的同時(shí),需要向銀行業(yè)注入現(xiàn)金。此舉表面上會(huì)將所有不良債務(wù)從銀行轉(zhuǎn)移至政府手中。政府只能寄希望于銀行業(yè)日后能以現(xiàn)金償還,但這一點(diǎn)可沒保證。

????First on deck is dealing with Greece and its outstanding debt. The 21% haircut on the net present value of Greek bonds outstanding, which was painfully agreed to by the banks and the Europeans earlier this summer, appears to be woefully inadequate. Greece simply cannot afford to meet its debt obligations under the plan given its depressed economy. A haircut of 50% to 60% is now being debated among European leaders, according to people familiar with the situation. There is also talk of simply exchanging the impaired Greek bonds with new bonds issued by the EFSF bailout fund, which would have lower face values.

????Both strategies have European banks up in arms. As large holders of the toxic debt, the banks are opposed to further write downs as it could jeopardize their solvency. Greece is of course just the tip of the iceberg. From day one there was fear that once the market relents to a large Greek bailout a domino effect would occur, forcing the banks to take massive haircuts on all their peripheral euro zone debt holdings. The markets have already pummeled the shares of one bank, Dexia, over talk of further write-downs for the banks. The Franco-Belgian bank was forced last week to seek a massive government bailout as it saw its short-term funding pulled by jittery money market funds.

????But Dexia is small fries compared to the big European banks like Germany's Deutsche Bank (DB) and France's Societe Generale. Those banks hold far more government and commercial debt than Dexia, while being exposed to the same short term funding limitations. The banks fear that any government action, which would force them to slice their sovereign debt holdings, would prompt another sell off in the markets, dragging down every last European bank.

????The European leaders believe that confidence could be restored by forcing the banks to increase their cash on hand from a current minimum of 5% of their assets to 9%. The larger cushion would allow the banks to absorb greater haircuts on their sovereign debt holdings and deflect market skepticism as to their solvency.

????The banks are obviously not happy about this. Joseph Ackermann, the head of Deutsche Bank, said last week that forcing the banks to boost capital would be counterproductive and that it would be tough for investors to accept further haircuts on their Greek debt. It's clear why Ackermann is so upset. Forcing the banks to cut the value of their Greek holdings, while at the same time requiring them to hold on to more of their cash, is hitting the banks' balance sheet from both ends.

Big bank fix

????To stop the bleeding and firmly resolve this crisis, the Europeans need to finally get out their cash bazooka and spray down the euro zone's banking system. The EFSF was expanded to meet the fiscal funding needs of peripheral euro zone members, which were having a hard time raising debt in the private markets. The EFSF's mandate and size need to be expanded to include bank recapitalization.

????Left on their own, the banks would probably choose to cut back on lending to boost their capital as opposed to issuing new equity or selling assets at fire sale prices. That would hurt an already weak European economy. To avoid this outcome, the banks need to be injected with cash at the same time they are forced to write down the value of their bad debt. The move would ostensibly move all the bad debt from the banks to the government. Over time, it is hoped that the banks pay will pay back the cash, but there is no guarantee they will.

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