????顯然政府領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人很清楚要做什么。問(wèn)題是怎么做，這也是為何他們需要這么長(zhǎng)時(shí)間才能作出反應(yīng)。本周日若能達(dá)成協(xié)議，將是一個(gè)重大的勝利，但這只是可能。法國(guó)希望重組銀行救助基金，參照美國(guó)問(wèn)題資產(chǎn)救助計(jì)劃（Troubled Asset Relief Program）的設(shè)計(jì)，將EFSF作為填補(bǔ)銀行業(yè)資本金缺口的主要融資工具。德國(guó)則希望市場(chǎng)能夠提供幫助，而僅僅只是把EFSF作為一旦出現(xiàn)銀行擠兌時(shí)的后備力量。法國(guó)模式已經(jīng)得在實(shí)踐中得到了檢驗(yàn)，而德國(guó)模式對(duì)于已厭倦了救助的歐洲人而言可能更容易接受些。

????法國(guó)模式有望最終勝出，因?yàn)镋FSF資金早已到位，隨時(shí)可以部署。這些資金可以分配給歐元區(qū)內(nèi)不同政府，然后再由政府撥給銀行。創(chuàng)建全新的、基于市場(chǎng)的投資計(jì)劃，現(xiàn)在似乎已經(jīng)為時(shí)太晚。

????短期內(nèi)，EFSF的4,400億歐元看來(lái)足以應(yīng)付銀行業(yè)的注資需求，并填補(bǔ)希臘和葡萄牙的財(cái)政缺口。國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）8月份曾估計(jì)，削減主權(quán)債務(wù)和提高資本金儲(chǔ)備后，銀行業(yè)需要2,000億歐元來(lái)填補(bǔ)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表中的缺口。雖然國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的數(shù)字接近歐洲銀行管理局（European Banking Authority）3個(gè)月前進(jìn)行壓力測(cè)試時(shí)宣稱(chēng)所需金額的8倍，但這一數(shù)據(jù)可能還不夠高。摩根大通（JPMorgan)的一項(xiàng)分析顯示，若采用新的減債比例，希臘、葡萄牙、愛(ài)爾蘭、意大利和西班牙的債務(wù)分別削減60%、40%、20%、15%和10%，同時(shí)要求歐洲銀行業(yè)將資本充足率上調(diào)至9%，總救助額將飆升至2,800億歐元。

????EFSF目前可用于將債務(wù)一筆勾銷(xiāo)，但如果銀行業(yè)需要更多現(xiàn)金或者歐元區(qū)邊緣國(guó)家的財(cái)政收入缺口進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大，這筆資金將很快耗盡。歐元區(qū)將陷入彈盡糧絕的境地，這種局面可能引發(fā)市場(chǎng)恐慌。為此，領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人們可能需要起草一項(xiàng)計(jì)劃，逐步對(duì)EFSF進(jìn)行擴(kuò)容，并將計(jì)劃交由各國(guó)議會(huì)進(jìn)行新一輪的投票。此舉可能會(huì)遇到麻煩，因?yàn)楫?dāng)前的擴(kuò)容計(jì)劃首次通過(guò)時(shí)已非常困難。

????目前，市場(chǎng)看好歐洲將EFSF用于歐洲銀行業(yè)的資本重整和穩(wěn)定可能取得的成果。然而，如果本周日的決議讓市場(chǎng)的愿望落空，此輪市場(chǎng)反彈將岌岌可危。最終，市場(chǎng)將不得不考慮EFSF用盡之后將會(huì)出現(xiàn)的局面。如果EFSF擴(kuò)容失敗，可能將進(jìn)一步加深市場(chǎng)焦慮情緒，使歐洲重新回到起點(diǎn)。

????What needs to be done is clearly understood by government leaders. The question of how it will be done is why it has taken this long for them to respond. It would be quite a feat for them to hammer out an agreement by this Sunday, but it is possible. France wants the bank bailout fund to be structured similar to how the Troubled Asset Relief Program was designed in the U.S., where the EFSF is used as the primary funding vehicle to fill the capital holes in the banks. Germany wants the market to help fund the bailout with the EFSF acting as a backstop to any further bank runs. The French model has been tried and tested while the German model would be more palatable to a populace that is suffering from bailout fatigue.

????In the end the French model should win out as the EFSF money is already there and ready to be deployed. The money could be handed over to the various euro zone governments which would then be doled out to the banks. Creating some totally new market-based investment scheme now seems way too late.

????In the short term, the 440 billion euros in the EFSF appears adequate to recapitalize the banks and fund fiscal gaps in Greece and Portugal. The IMF estimated back in August that the banks would need 200 billion euros to plug the holes in their balance sheets after writing down their sovereign debt holdings and boosting their capital reserves. While the IMF number was nearly eight times the amount that the European Banking Authority claimed was needed when it conducted its stress tests three months ago, it still may not be high enough. When taking into account a haircut on the debt of Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain at the new calculations of 60%, 40%, 20%, 15% and 10%, respectively, and at the same time requiring European banks to have a 9% capital ratio, the total bailout number swells to 280 billion euro, according to an analysis by JPMorgan.

????The EFSF could be used now to wipe the slate clean but it will quickly be tapped out if the banks need further cash or if the revenue shortfalls in the peripheral countries grow. That would leave the euro zone defenseless, which would raise market anxiety. To that end, the leaders will probably need to draw up a plan to eventually increase the size of the EFSF, forcing another round of voting in national parliaments. That could present problems given how difficult it was to pass the current upgrade the first time around.

????The market is pricing in a happy outcome in Europe with the EFSF used to recapitalize and stabilize Europe's banking sector. A resolution that falls short of that outcome this Sunday will put the current market bounce in jeopardy. Eventually, the markets will have to contend with what happens after the EFSF is tapped out. Failure to expand the EFSF could raise anxiety levels once again, putting Europe back at square one.