????上周穆迪（Moody's）警告稱，EFSF計(jì)劃對那些信貸評級為AAA的歐元區(qū)成員國的影響為“負(fù)面”，因?yàn)樽罱K要指望靠這些國家的稅收收入來完成整個(gè)救助計(jì)劃。穆迪發(fā)出“負(fù)面”警告后，部分國家的評級可能會(huì)被下調(diào)，導(dǎo)致它們的融資成本相應(yīng)提高，進(jìn)一步陷入債務(wù)泥沼。對于失業(yè)率達(dá)9.9%的法國而言，這尤其讓人憂心。上周標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾（S&P）指出，法國由于財(cái)政狀況不佳，早就處于失去AAA評級的邊緣。如果失去AAA評級（市場普遍預(yù)計(jì)12月份標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾在對法國評級進(jìn)行回顧時(shí)可能做出這樣的調(diào)整），就意味著EFSF債券的評級可能降低，歐洲人將必須提供更高的收益率才能吸引投資者。

????如果標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾貫徹其夏初的表態(tài)，上述前景可能已經(jīng)不可避免，而EFSF將遭遇重創(chuàng)。今年夏初，這家信用評級公司曾表示，任何“聯(lián)合信貸安排”的評級將取所有出資國中的最低評級，而不是最高評級。由于歐元區(qū)包括希臘在內(nèi)的所有17個(gè)成員國都參與了出資，EFSF的債券無疑應(yīng)為垃圾評級。在這一關(guān)鍵問題上，歐洲人正在和評級機(jī)構(gòu)磋商，但上周沒能達(dá)成一致意見。

????假如外國政府為了表達(dá)對歐洲的支持，紛紛購入債券，垃圾評級可能就不是問題。但現(xiàn)在除了中國已表明會(huì)考慮投資EFSF，其他國家如巴西、澳大利亞和俄羅斯，都還沒有明確表態(tài)。信貸評級問題更加明朗化之前，救助方案依然無法獲得推進(jìn)。

希臘減債

????方案需要回答的最后一個(gè)大問題是與希臘減債有關(guān)。方案呼吁銀行業(yè)“主動(dòng)”將所持希臘債務(wù)減半。方案沒有說明如何實(shí)現(xiàn)這一點(diǎn)，但可能會(huì)迫使銀行將所持債券換成長期債券。雖然目前已經(jīng)就減債問題和部分銀行達(dá)成某種一致，但都是非正式的協(xié)議，因此銀行仍有可能拒絕參與。

????減債50%非同小可，為此銀行業(yè)可能需要在如此不景氣的時(shí)節(jié)進(jìn)行募資。沒有銀行的大力支持，救助方案可能引發(fā)信貸事件，大幅推高希臘信貸違約掉期（CDS），從而重?fù)糇龆嘞ＥD債券的銀行和對沖基金，并可能引發(fā)金融震蕩。但很難分辨哪些銀行是在做多希臘債券，哪些銀行是在做空希臘債券。這也是周一歐洲銀行股下跌的部分原因。

????此外，救助方案希望到2020年將希臘的負(fù)債/GDP比率回調(diào)至120%左右。老實(shí)說，這樣的負(fù)債比率仍屬高位，而且前提是在此期間希臘經(jīng)濟(jì)不會(huì)繼續(xù)惡化。如果希臘無法重振旗鼓，銀行業(yè)最終可能要沖銷所有的希臘債務(wù)。如果希臘經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)疲弱，也可能導(dǎo)致大批私人貸款違約，危及曾在經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮時(shí)期向希臘公眾放貸的歐洲銀行。

????歐債救助方案有很多令人稱許的地方，但還是有太多問題需要回答。市場似乎正在逐漸認(rèn)識到這一點(diǎn)。歐洲人給出明確的答案，填補(bǔ)這些漏洞之前，市場將延續(xù)震蕩態(tài)勢。

????Moody's issued a warning last week that the EFSF plan is a "negative" for the nations in the euro zone that have a triple-A credit rating, since it will ultimately be their tax dollars that will be counted on to hold this entire bailout together. The "negative" warning from Moody's (MCO) could lead to downgrades in some countries, which would increase their cost of funding, plunging them further into debt. This is especially a concern for France, which has an unemployment rate of 9.9%. S&P said last week that the country is already in danger of losing its triple-A rating as a result of its weak fiscal situation. The loss of that rating, which is widely expected to occur when France comes up for review by S&P in December, will mean that the EFSF bonds could take a credit rating hit, forcing the Europeans to offer a higher yield to attract investors.

????This all may be a moot point if S&P follows through with a promise that could crush the EFSF entirely. Earlier this summer, the credit rating agency said that any "combined credit facility" would carry the rating of the lowest, not the highest, member contributing to the fund. Since all 17-members are contributing, including Greece, the bonds should have a junk credit rating. The Europeans are in talks with the ratings agencies over this key issue, but no agreement was forged last week.

????A junk rating may not be an issue if foreign governments just snap up the bonds in a show of solidarity with Europe. But while China has said it would consider investing in the EFSF, other nations like Brazil, Australia and Russia have stayed mum on the situation. Until there is more clarity on the credit situation, this deal remains locked.

Greek haircut

????The last major hole in the deal is surrounding the Greek haircut. The deal calls for banks to accept a "voluntary" 50% haircut on their Greek debt. How this would be accomplished wasn't explained but it would probably force banks to swap their current bonds for ones that have a long maturity. While there has been some agreement with banks over the haircut, nothing is official, so they can still refuse to participate.

????The 50% haircut is massive and will force banks to raise capital at a precarious time. Without strong buy-in from the banks, the deal could trigger a credit event that could set off Greek credit default swaps. That could crush banks and hedge funds that are long Greek debt, creating a potential financial panic. But it is hard to tell which banks are long Greek debt and which are shorting it. That is helping fuel the drop in European banks stocks today.

????In addition, the plan hopes to bring the Greek debt to GDP ratio to around 120% by 2020. That is still a really high level of debt and excludes the possibility that the Greek economy will get worse. Banks could ultimately need to write off all that Greek debt if the country is unable to get their act together. Further weakness in the Greek economy could also lead to cascading defaults of private loans, threatening to bring down many European banks that issued private loans to the Greek public during the boom years.

????There are many things to like about the European plan, but there are still too many unanswered questions. The markets seem to be sobering up to that reality today. Until the Europeans get specific and fill in these holes, volatility will continue in the markets.