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平地驚雷:希臘挾公投倒逼歐盟

平地驚雷:希臘挾公投倒逼歐盟

Cyrus Sanati 2011-11-03
一些交易員認(rèn)定希臘總理帕潘德里歐要舉行全民公投是虛,逼迫歐盟給出一個(gè)更好的救助方案是實(shí)。在這場較量中,到底是誰處于上風(fēng)?

????希臘總理喬治?帕潘德里歐宣布將就歐元區(qū)最新救助方案進(jìn)行全民公投,似乎是決意要和歐盟玩一場豪賭的老鷹捉小雞游戲,這令早已如履薄冰的形勢立刻急轉(zhuǎn)直下。要想取消這場公投,歐洲領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人可能最終將不得不冒險(xiǎn)給希臘一個(gè)更好的方案。

????不清楚到底為什么帕潘德里歐現(xiàn)在決定站出來,呼吁舉行公投。和美國加州、瑞士等地不同,全民公投在希臘極其罕見,上一次公投要追溯到遙遠(yuǎn)的1974年,當(dāng)時(shí)是為了廢除君主制。

????帕潘德里歐聲稱,由于最新的歐洲救助方案將給希臘帶來巨大影響,有必要讓民眾來投票決定。這一說法令歐洲嘩然。因?yàn)橄ED政府推行兩輪嚴(yán)厲的緊縮措施時(shí)沒有舉行公投,希臘決定接受歐盟(European Union)和國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)幾十億歐元救助時(shí)同樣沒有舉行公投。

????那么,現(xiàn)在究竟是唱的哪一出?雖然在嚴(yán)峻形勢下要取得民眾的信任票有其道理,但在一些市場人士看來此舉完全是希臘放出的手段,用于倒逼歐盟給出更有利方案。希臘在這個(gè)時(shí)候宣布決定公投可能并不是巧合:希臘剛剛獲得了歐盟和國際貨幣基金組織最新一輪的現(xiàn)金救助款,而且?guī)滋旌蠖畤瘓F(tuán)(G-20)峰會(huì)將在戛納召開,歐盟本打算在會(huì)上向全世界展示歐洲終于達(dá)成了一致行動(dòng)。

????“幕后可能有些不為公眾所知的內(nèi)幕,”一位與歐盟有緊密聯(lián)系的投資組合經(jīng)理告訴《財(cái)富》雜志(Fortune)。“帕潘德里歐顯然是想讓歐盟拿出更多的錢。”

????帕潘德里歐的公投決定看來確實(shí)讓德國和法國措手不及。周三早間,兩國官員宣布不會(huì)對(duì)救助方案作出任何調(diào)整,希臘要么全盤接受,要么干脆放棄幾十億歐元的救助款——如果沒有這些救助款,希臘將無法繼續(xù)償還債務(wù)。

????Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou seems to playing an extremely high-stakes game of chicken with the European Union in his call for a national referendum on the euro zone's latest fix-it plan. The move has destabilized a situation that was already on thin ice. In the end, European leaders may have to sweeten the pot for Greece to make this vote go away.

????It is unclear why exactly Papandreou decided to step up now and call for a referendum. Unlike in places like California and Switzerland, referendums are extremely rare in Greece, with the last such vote held in 1974 when the country voted to abolish the monarchy.

????Papandreou claims that a vote by the people is necessary given the major impact the latest European fix-it plan would have on Greece. That rational has raised some eyebrows across the continent. A referendum wasn't used when the Greek government pushed through two rounds of tough austerity measures. Nor was it used when the country decided to take billions of euros in aid from the European Union and International Monetary Fund.

????So what is really going on here? While receiving a vote of confidence from the people is justifiable given the seriousness of the situation, the move is being seen by some in the market as a way for Greece to push the EU into giving it a better deal. It probably isn't a coincidence that the call for the vote came after the country received its latest cash payment from the EU and IMF and a couple days before the G-20 summit in Cannes, where the EU was supposed to show the world that it has finally got its act together.

????"There is probably something going on behind the scenes that isn't being seen in the public eye," a portfolio manager with close ties to the EU told Fortune. "Papandreou is obviously trying to get the EU to step up with more cash."

????Germany and France seemed genuinely shocked by Papandreou's decision to call for a referendum. This morning, officials from both countries telegraphed that there would be no alterations made to the plan and that Greece was going to have to accept it in its entirety or lose the billions of euros in aid it needs to keep paying its bills.????

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