??? 那么，在這場較量中誰占上風(fēng)呢？假如希臘舉行了公投，民眾很可能會否決新方案，在地區(qū)內(nèi)引發(fā)一波震蕩。作為回應(yīng)，歐盟可能會停止對希臘輸血，迫使該國出現(xiàn)債務(wù)違約。違約將導(dǎo)致希臘所有的大銀行全部倒閉，因?yàn)樗鼈兪窍ＥD債券最大的持有人。但與此同時，數(shù)家歐洲銀行也要減記幾十億歐元的資產(chǎn)，因?yàn)樗鼈円渤钟辛讼喈?dāng)數(shù)量的希臘債券。

雪球效應(yīng)

??? 事情到這里還沒有結(jié)束。假如希臘人不得不違約，希臘債券的信貸違約掉期（CDS）將飆升，意味著做多希臘債券的銀行們將欠下那些做空希臘債券的銀行和對沖基金數(shù)十億歐元。人們普遍相信發(fā)行、有時甚至持有這些CDS合約的大銀行并沒有準(zhǔn)備好足夠多的資金用于平倉。結(jié)果可能導(dǎo)致很多金融機(jī)構(gòu)出現(xiàn)美國國際集團(tuán)（AIG）式的倒臺。這正是周二全球銀行股暴跌的原因，特別是那些在CDS市場有大量敞口的銀行，比如美國銀行（Bank of America）和摩根大通（JP Morgan Chase）的美股跌幅均達(dá)到了6%左右，以及歐洲的法國興業(yè)銀行（Societe Generale），其跌幅更是超過了16%。

????這種CDS連鎖反應(yīng)正是歐洲人為何這么長一段時間以來持續(xù)向希臘輸血的重要原因之一。希臘經(jīng)濟(jì)全面崩潰當(dāng)然不是什么好事，但在雷曼兄弟破產(chǎn)（Lehman Brothers）三年后的今天，如果全球銀行體系再度陷入信心危機(jī)，則無疑是一場災(zāi)難。最新救助方案中的一項(xiàng)重要內(nèi)容就是要求銀行和其他希臘債券的主要持有人同意將債券減值50%。由于這樣的減債是主動的“軟違約”，不會引發(fā)CDS合約飆升，因而只會波及實(shí)際持有希臘債券的銀行。

????硬違約可能會導(dǎo)致所有的希臘債券成為一堆廢紙。雖然這能讓希臘輕裝上陣，但結(jié)果將是得不償失，因?yàn)橄ＥD經(jīng)濟(jì)將元?dú)獯髠?。帕潘德里歐深知這一點(diǎn)，希臘國會中的主要反對黨成員也知道這一點(diǎn)，因此一直嚴(yán)厲抨擊這位總理，稱其不顧后果。如果周五帕潘德里歐能在不信任投票中過關(guān)，世界就要準(zhǔn)備好面對未來幾個月市場可能延續(xù)震蕩的局面。全民公投可能會在今年12月底或明年1月初進(jìn)行。

????為了避免出現(xiàn)這種局面，法國和德國可能需要放下架子，與銀行業(yè)一起給希臘制定一個更優(yōu)惠的方案。根據(jù)現(xiàn)行方案，預(yù)計到2020年希臘的負(fù)債/GDP比率將為120%左右。雖然這相比2013年底 的190%（預(yù)測值）有所改善，但仍屬高位。而且，前提是希臘政府進(jìn)一步縮減開支以及希臘經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)正增長。這兩個假設(shè)都很樂觀，因?yàn)榭s減支出和歐元堅(jiān)挺可能會導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)增速更加放緩。為擺脫困境，希臘需要減債逾半。目前銀行業(yè)仍不愿接受更大幅度的減債，但硬違約可能產(chǎn)生的嚴(yán)重后果或許讓他們心生畏懼，只能做出讓步。

????沃倫?巴菲特曾把衍生金融工具比作大規(guī)模殺傷性武器。眼下，希臘債券的CDS合約確實(shí)顯現(xiàn)出極大的殺傷力，而帕潘德里歐正威脅要摁下按鈕。為避免出現(xiàn)任何不可收拾的后果，歐洲人可能需要對希臘的要求作出讓步。

??? So who holds the advantage here? If Greece goes ahead with the referendum, its citizenry would most probably reject the plan, creating a wave of instability in the region. In response, the EU would probably cut its lifeline to Greece, forcing the nation to default on its debt. That would cause all of the major Greek banks to collapse, as they are the largest holders of Greek debt. But at the same time, it would cause several European banks to take billions of euros in write downs, as they too hold significant amounts of Greek debt.

Snowball effect

??? It doesn't end there. Since the Greeks were forced into default, credit default swap contracts on Greek debt would be triggered. That means the banks and hedge funds that were short Greek debt would now be owed billions of euros in insurance payments by those that were long Greek debt. It is widely believed that the large banks, which issue and sometime hold on to all those CDS contracts, have not set aside enough capital to payout claims. This could lead to an AIG-style meltdown of many financial institutions. That explains why bank stocks around the globe fell hard yesterday, especially those that play big in the CDS market like Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) in the U.S., which were both down around 6%, as well as those in Europe like Societe Generale, which was down over 16%.

????This CDS chain reaction is one of the major reasons why the Europeans have kept Greece on life support for so long. The total collapse of the Greek economy would be a sad event, but a confidence crisis in the word banking system, three years after the fall of Lehman Brothers, would be a catastrophe. One of the major planks of the latest fix-it plan was to get the banks and other major holders of Greek debt to agree to take a 50% haircut on their bonds. Since such a cut would be voluntary "soft default," it would not trigger the CDS contracts, therefore limiting the fallout to those banks that physically held Greek debt.

????A hard default would probably see all that Greek debt go to zero. While that would wipe the slate clean for the country, it would be a pyrrhic victory as its economy would be decimated. Papandreou is fully aware of this fact, as are members of Greece's main opposition party in parliament, which has blasted the prime minister for being reckless. If Papandreou survives a vote of no confidence Friday, the stage will be set for months of further market instability. The referendum would take place probably at the end of December or beginning of January.

????To avoid all of this, the French and the Germans may need to swallow their pride and work out a better deal for the Greeks with the banks. Under the current plan, Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be around 120% by 2020. While that is an improvement from the projected 190% ratio projected by 2013, it's still very high. The plan assumes further cuts in Greek government spending and a positive economic growth rate. Those assumptions are generous, since the cuts in spending, coupled with a strong euro, would probably lead to much slower economic growth. To dig itself out of this hole, Greece needs to cut its debt by more than 50%. The banks have balked at taking a larger haircut, but the threat of a hard default may scare them into accepting a greater loss.

????Warren Buffett once called derivatives financial instruments of mass destruction. The CDS contracts attached to Greek debt are proving to be quite a destructive force indeed. Papandreou is now threatening to push the button. To avoid a nasty surprise, the Europeans will probably need to yield to Greece's demands.