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貝盧斯科尼下臺(tái)救不了意大利

貝盧斯科尼下臺(tái)救不了意大利

Cyrus Sanati 2011-11-10
貝盧斯科尼宣布有條件辭職,市場反應(yīng)積極。然而,意大利真正的問題并不在領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層。經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力的下降已使得這個(gè)國家只能靠借入更多的錢才能維持以往的好日子。更換新的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人并不能改變這一點(diǎn)。

????意大利總理西爾維奧?貝盧斯科尼可能會(huì)辭職,但這絕不能解決意大利和歐洲其他國家的深層經(jīng)濟(jì)問題。聽聞這位自墨索里尼以來意大利任職時(shí)間最長的總理可能下臺(tái),市場反響積極,但愿意買入意大利債券的私人投資者依然少之又少,意大利債券收益率已升至自歐元誕生以來的最高位。

????意大利政壇的亂象一如眼下的希臘,熟悉南歐市場的交易員對(duì)此并不意外,。除了羅馬,能左右意大利命運(yùn)的還有布魯塞爾,在那里歐元區(qū)的技術(shù)官員們正在努力找尋能醫(yī)治地區(qū)主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)的靈丹妙藥。不幸的是歐盟同樣也罹患羅馬的政治失能癥。兩者都需要認(rèn)真解決各自的政治問題,才能贏得市場的信賴。

????周二貝盧斯科尼沒能在常規(guī)預(yù)算案投票中獲得絕對(duì)多數(shù)——這場投票事實(shí)上已演變?yōu)閷?duì)貝盧斯科尼的不信任投票。主要反對(duì)黨棄權(quán),凸顯貝盧斯科尼領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的多黨政治聯(lián)盟已現(xiàn)裂痕。最終的投票結(jié)果是貝盧斯科尼獲得了308票,距離能證明其擁有意大利國會(huì)絕對(duì)多數(shù)支持的316票低了8票。雖然由于沒有反對(duì)票,預(yù)算案獲得了通過,但未能獲得絕對(duì)多數(shù)仍給貝盧斯科尼的政治前景打上了問號(hào)。

????撇開意大利這出大戲不談,周二的投票及其結(jié)果只是曠日持久的歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)眾多插曲中的一個(gè)。雖然隨后可能出現(xiàn)的權(quán)力真空以及由技術(shù)官員主導(dǎo)的臨時(shí)政府,對(duì)于正處于經(jīng)濟(jì)歷史關(guān)鍵時(shí)刻的意大利而言不是最優(yōu)選擇,但可能也不是災(zāi)難。

????The potential resignation of Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is no panacea for the deep-rooted economic troubles within Italy and the rest of Europe. While the markets responded somewhat positively to reports that Italy's longest ruling leader since Mussolini is on his way out the door, there were still too few private investors willing to snap up Italian debt, sending Italian bond yields to their highest level since the founding of the euro.

????The political mess in Italy, like the one currently in Greece, is not a surprise for traders familiar with the southern European markets. Italy's fate is being decided not just in Rome, but also in Brussels, where euro zone technocrats are trying to concoct an elixir for the region's sovereign debt crisis. Unfortunately, the political dysfunction that has gripped Rome has also paralyzed the EU. Both need to get serious about solving their respective political problems before the market writes both of them off for good.

????Berlusconi failed to receive a total majority today in a normal budgetary vote, which had become a de facto vote of no confidence on his leadership of the Italian state. The main opposition party abstained from voting in an attempt to reveal the cracks in Berlusconi's disparate political coalition. The vote ended up eight shy of the 316 needed to show that he had a majority in the Italian parliament. While the budget bill passed, as there were no votes against the measure, the failure to receive a total majority has put Berlusconi's political future in doubt.

????Italian theatrics aside, the vote today and its outcome are really just one of the many sideshows in the long-running European sovereign debt crisis. While an ensuing power vacuum and a technocrat-run interim government certainly isn't the best choice for Italy at such a critical juncture in the nation's economic history, it probably won't spell disaster either.

掃描二維碼下載財(cái)富APP
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