????2008年那場(chǎng)大危機(jī)中新興市場(chǎng)大跌超過50%，之后，一個(gè)投資策略一下就流行起來了，也就是通過買跨國(guó)公司的股票，間接受益于快速成長(zhǎng)的市場(chǎng)。類似可口可樂（Coca-Cola）這樣的巨無霸公司很少會(huì)像發(fā)展中市場(chǎng)的本土競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手那樣出現(xiàn)大起大落。它們的產(chǎn)品銷往巴西、印度和中國(guó)等所有最熱門的市場(chǎng)。而且，如今跨國(guó)公司的首席執(zhí)行官們似乎言必稱新興市場(chǎng)。

????兩年前，高盛（Goldman Sachs）的策略師們做出了一項(xiàng)推薦。他們選出了被稱為金磚四國(guó)“漂亮50”（BRICs Nifty 50）的兩籃子股票，其中一個(gè)籃子是新興市場(chǎng)股票，另一個(gè)是有新興市場(chǎng)業(yè)務(wù)的跨國(guó)公司股票。這些策略師們的建議是，可根據(jù)哪類股票提供更好的相對(duì)價(jià)值或增長(zhǎng)前景，在兩個(gè)籃子間來回跳轉(zhuǎn)。過去5年，這兩個(gè)籃子都有不錯(cuò)的增長(zhǎng)。

????但現(xiàn)在歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)岌岌可危，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇緩慢，投資者們心里又打起了小算盤。新興市場(chǎng)咨詢機(jī)構(gòu) Emerging Global Advisors的創(chuàng)始人羅伯特?赫德斯稱，人們都說跨國(guó)公司為希望投資高速成長(zhǎng)市場(chǎng)的投資者們提供了第二條道路。然而，真相是當(dāng)投資者著眼于新興市場(chǎng)而買進(jìn)跨國(guó)公司股票時(shí)，他們同時(shí)也買入了這些公司正在走下坡路的發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng)業(yè)務(wù)?！斑@一點(diǎn)極大的稀釋了（投資價(jià)值），” 他說。

????赫德斯的觀點(diǎn)是像百勝餐飲集團(tuán)（Yum! Brands）、可口可樂這樣的公司在新興市場(chǎng)的成功故事讓投資者變得盲目。以肯德基（KFC）、塔可鐘（Taco Bell）的母公司——百勝餐飲為例，過去5年間，它在中國(guó)的銷售額每年增長(zhǎng)20%。公司的最新年報(bào)寫道：“在中國(guó)，我們?nèi)蕴幱诎l(fā)展的初期階段?！?/p>

????問題是同樣在這5年里，百勝餐飲的美國(guó)銷售額每年下降6%，從56億美元降到了41億美元。兩者綜合起來的結(jié)果是：公司銷售額只有湊合的個(gè)位數(shù)增長(zhǎng)。百勝餐飲的股價(jià)已大漲了不少。但你能肯定其海外業(yè)務(wù)未來的增長(zhǎng)會(huì)填補(bǔ)其美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)業(yè)務(wù)的放緩嗎？還有，你有把握一直選到最好的跨國(guó)公司股票嗎？

????Ever since the great crash of 2008, when emerging markets plummeted more than 50%, one strategy has jumped in popularity: buying multinationals to play the fast-growing markets. Giants like Coca-Cola rarely collapse like their developing markets-based competitors. They sell into all the hottest markets such as Brazil, India, and China. And nowadays, multinational CEOs seem to begin every conversation with a story about these far-flung markets.

????Goldman Sachs strategists came out with an endorsement two years ago. They composed two baskets of stocks and called them the BRICs Nifty 50. One includes emerging market companies; the other has multinationals with exposure to emerging markets. The strategists concluded that you could hop back and forth between the baskets, depending which stocks offered better relative value or growth prospects. And over the past five years, both groups have risen nicely.

????But now, with European economies in shambles and the U.S. undergoing a slow recovery, investors are turning that wisdom on its head. The myth of multinationals, says Robert Holderith, founder of Emerging Global Advisors, is that they provide investors an alternative path into explosive growth markets. The truth is that when you buy multinationals for emerging markets, you also buy their sagging developed markets businesses. "It's too watered down," he argues.

????Holderith's point is that emerging market success stories from companies like Yum! Brands and Coca-Cola (KO) have blinded investors. Take Yum (YUM), parent company of fast-food restaurants including KFC and Taco Bell. Over the past five years, its sales in China have grown by 20% annually. "And we're just on the ground floor of growth in China," reads its latest annual report.

????The problem is that in the same time frame, Yum's U.S. sales fell by 6% annually -- from $5.6 billion to $4.1 billion. The overall result: a middling, single-digit sales growth rate. Yum shares have rocketed upward. But in the future can you trust its overseas growth to make up for its slowing home market? Moreover, can you consistently pick the best multinationals?