????法國的問題是它靠借錢過日子的時間太長了。雖然還不像意大利那么糟糕，但法國的負債水平相對于其經濟產出也已很高了。法國政府總負債約為1.3萬億歐元，負債/GDP比率約83%。相比希臘（140%）、意大利（120%）之流，法國的負債/GDP比率仍相對較低，但對于一個擁有完美AAA評級的國家來說還是太高——遠高于今夏剛剛失去AAA評級的美國。

????假如法國的經濟增長前景強勁，這樣的負債/GDP比率根本就不是問題，但如今的法國在這方面面臨著嚴峻的挑戰(zhàn)。法國一度強大的制造業(yè)近年已經開始走下坡路，導致法國進口的商業(yè)日益增多。曾幾何時法國擁有巨額的貿易順差，如今卻背負著巨額貿易逆差。今年前6個月法國的貿易逆差高達375億歐元。這個數字固然龐大，但真正麻煩的問題是其速長之快，因為這個數字較去年同期增長了36%。

????法國的勞動力成本高，似乎是出口下降背后的原因。德國人在歐元區(qū)內外的貿易中都挫敗了法國人。法國人輸在了兩方面。首先，法國勞動力的競爭力降低。2000年，法國工人比德國工人的收入低8%，如今法國工人比德國工人收入高10%。其次，現(xiàn)在法國對德貿易每個月逆差約為10億歐元，相比2004年完全掉了個，當時德國對法貿易每個月逆差數以10億歐元計。

????法國經濟到底怎么了？政府規(guī)定的每周35小時工作制自然是個問題，但情況要比這復雜得多。法國的政府支出水平在歐元區(qū)內最高，約占GDP的54%。如此高水平的政府支出是為了支撐法國優(yōu)厚的福利體系，而資金來源則是負債和高稅收。企業(yè)稅負重導致法國商品十分昂貴，最終在國際市場上失去了競爭力。據法國最大的雇主協(xié)會MEDEF的數據顯示，當今法國的總勞動成本有約一半用于支撐法國的福利體系，而與其相鄰的德國這一比例僅為28%。

????市場原本指望法國終于能下定決心削減開支，大幅縮減社會保障。結果法國給出的方案卻指望靠加稅來解決問題。大幅削減政府開支、放寬勞動法對解決法國的財政困境很有幫助。這么做需要政府向該國強大的工會組織攤牌，然而，即使是保守的尼古拉?薩科齊總統(tǒng)眼下似乎也不愿這樣做。

????上周三，法國債券的保險成本再度升至約255個基點。法國債券的收益率現(xiàn)已遠高于4%， 相對于德國債券處于歷史高位。如果法國在解決經濟問題方面遲遲不動真格，法國的借貸成本將繼續(xù)增長直到難以為繼。這樣的一場危機肯定會進一步讓歐元的前景岌岌可危。

????France's problem is that it simply has been living beyond its means for way too long. While not as bad as Italy, France has a very high debt compared to its economic output. Its total government debt of around 1.3 trillion euros equates to a debt-to-GDP ratio of around 83%. That is relatively low in comparison to the likes of Greece, which is at 140%, and Italy, which is at 120%, but it is high for a country that has a perfect triple-A credit rating – much higher than the United States, which lost its triple-A rating earlier this summer.

????If France's economic growth prospects were strong, then its debt-to-GDP ratio wouldn't be an issue, but the country is facing some serious challenges on that front. France's once strong manufacturing sector has decayed in recent years causing it to import increasingly more goods. Where once the country ran large trade surpluses, it now runs large deficits. In the first six months of this year France had a trade deficit of 37.5 billion euros. While that's a large number, what's really troubling is how fast it has grown, up 36% compared to the same time last year.

????France's high labor costs seem to be behind the drop off in exports. The Germans have trounced the French in both internal and external eurozone trade. France is actually helping the Germans win in two ways. First, it has allowed its workforce to become less competitive. In 2000, French workers were paid 8% less than German workers. Now, French workers are paid 10% more than German workers. Second, France runs a trade deficit with Germany of around 1 billion euros a month. That is a complete reversal from 2004 when it was Germany that was running the billion-euro-a-month trade deficit with France.

????What has happened to the French economy? The 35-hour government mandated work week surely hasn't helped matters much, but it goes deeper. France has the highest level of government spending in the eurozone at around 54% of GDP. That high level of spending goes to support the generous French welfare state, which is funded through borrowing and high taxes. Those taxes are passed through businesses, making French goods very expensive and ultimately uncompetitive on the world market. Today, around half of the gross labor costs in France go to prop up the French welfare state, while it is just 28% in neighboring Germany, according to MEDEF, France's largest union of employers.

????The market was looking for France to finally announce plans to reduce its spending and force through meaningful cuts in its social safety net. Instead, it got a plan where France would try to tax its way out of its problems. Meaningful cuts in government spending, followed by liberalization of the nation's labor laws, will go a long way to solving France's fiscal dilemma. That would require a showdown with the country's powerful unions, something that not even conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy seems to have the stomach for at this point.

????The cost to insure French debt jumped again on Wednesday to around 255 basis points. Yields on French debt are now well above 4% and are at historic highs versus German bonds. Until France gets real about its economic issues, it will see its borrowing costs continue to increase until it becomes way too expensive to maintain. Such a crisis would definitely put the euro's future in peril.