藍(lán)色債券與紅色債券

????其中一種結(jié)構(gòu)是成員國(guó)同時(shí)發(fā)行歐洲債券和主權(quán)債券。歐洲債券（在該結(jié)構(gòu)中被稱為“藍(lán)色債券”）將承擔(dān)相當(dāng)于成員國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值60%的債務(wù)。如果某成員國(guó)的債務(wù)占比高于其國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的60%（多數(shù)成員國(guó)都是如此），則超出部分將由各國(guó)發(fā)行的主權(quán)債券（即“紅色債券”）承擔(dān)。所以，對(duì)于債務(wù)占國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值比例高達(dá)120%的意大利，其中一半的債務(wù)將由歐洲債券融資，其余部分將發(fā)行意大利債券。這種結(jié)構(gòu)的弊端比較明顯，紅色債券的利率可能依然很高，部分國(guó)家難以承受。雖然高利率會(huì)促使其進(jìn)行財(cái)政調(diào)整，但可能無(wú)法給這些國(guó)家足夠的時(shí)間來(lái)恢復(fù)財(cái)政平衡。

????歐洲債券另一值得商榷的結(jié)構(gòu)則是部分成員國(guó)發(fā)行統(tǒng)一的歐洲債券，而另外一些成員國(guó)則繼續(xù)發(fā)行主權(quán)債券。這一結(jié)構(gòu)的特點(diǎn)是，愿意放棄財(cái)政自主的成員國(guó)可以加入歐洲債券陣營(yíng)，而不太愿意放棄財(cái)政權(quán)的成員國(guó)則可繼續(xù)發(fā)行主權(quán)債券，同時(shí)仍使用歐元作為其國(guó)家貨幣。上周末，部分認(rèn)為該結(jié)構(gòu)能加快歐洲債券問(wèn)世進(jìn)程的德國(guó)和法國(guó)官員對(duì)此進(jìn)行了討論。由于該結(jié)構(gòu)并不強(qiáng)制要求成員國(guó)加入歐洲債券陣營(yíng)，所以不需要修訂歐盟條約（EU treaty），而條約修訂則需要?dú)W盟27國(guó)的審批，包括未加入歐元區(qū)的其他歐盟成員國(guó)。

????雖然這或許能加快歐洲債券的面世，但卻無(wú)法解決歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)。據(jù)德國(guó)媒體稱，法國(guó)和德國(guó)希望首批歐洲債券成員國(guó)的信用評(píng)級(jí)必須達(dá)到AAA級(jí)，以打造所謂的“精選”債券。盡管此舉會(huì)使這些國(guó)家免受危機(jī)蔓延的沖擊，但卻無(wú)法解決債務(wù)危機(jī)。除非歐元區(qū)外圍成員國(guó)可以加入新的“精選”俱樂(lè)部，否則它們將繼續(xù)面臨融資壓力。不過(guò)，該俱樂(lè)部成員國(guó)可能反對(duì)財(cái)政狀況較差的成員國(guó)加入，而這將與發(fā)行統(tǒng)一債券以穩(wěn)定歐元區(qū)形勢(shì)的初衷相悖。

????歐元區(qū)總體財(cái)政一體化似乎是避免歐元崩潰的最佳方式。但如果歐元區(qū)各國(guó)預(yù)算不同步，即便歐洲央行最終演變成像美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)那樣的最后貸款人也將無(wú)濟(jì)于事。德國(guó)和法國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人預(yù)計(jì)將在12月9日舉行的歐盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人重要會(huì)議上宣布?xì)W洲債券計(jì)劃的部分內(nèi)容。如果計(jì)劃呼吁統(tǒng)一的歐洲債券，市場(chǎng)的擔(dān)憂情緒應(yīng)該能夠得到緩解，但任何分裂歐元區(qū)的都可能令歐元慘淡收?qǐng)觥?/p>

Blue and red bonds

????One of those structures would see member states issuing both eurobonds and sovereign bonds at the same time. Eurobonds, which are called "blue bonds" in this case, would cover any debt equal to 60% of a member's GDP. If a nation has a debt larger than 60% of its GDP, which most do, then it would be covered by sovereign bonds issued by each country, called "red bonds." So Italy, which has a debt to GDP ratio of 120%, would have half of its debt guaranteed as eurobonds and the rest issued as Italian bonds. The trouble with this scheme seems obvious – those red bonds would most likely still have an interest rate that was too high for some nations to handle. While it pressures them to make fiscal changes, it may not buy them enough time to get their fiscal house in order.

????Another questionable eurobond structure is one that would see some nations issuing joint eurobonds while others stick with their own sovereign debt. This would allow those member states comfortable enough to give up the power of the purse to do so, while those not so comfortable could continue issuing their own debt while keeping the euro as their national currency. The idea was discussed last weekend between German and French officials who viewed this as a faster way to get eurobonds issued. Since it didn't force members to join the eurobond, it therefore did not require a change in the EU treaty – something that all 27 nations of the EU, including those not in the eurozone, would need to approve.

????While this might get eurobonds out there faster, it wouldn't solve the crisis. According to the German press, the French and the Germans wanted the first eurobond members to be those with triple-A credit ratings, creating what they called the "elite" bond. Such a scenario would effectively be a life raft to protect those nations from contagion, but wouldn't be a solution to the crisis. The peripheral members of the euro would continue to face funding pressure unless they were let in the new "elite" club. Those in the club could possibly vote to keep the more profligate members from joining, which would defeat the whole idea of issuing a joint bond to stabilize the eurozone.

????Total fiscal integration across the eurozone appears to be the best way to keep the monetary union alive. Whether or not the ECB evolves into a Fed-like lender of last resort is irrelevant if the eurozone's various national budgets aren't in sync. German and French leaders are expected to reveal part of their eurobond plan at an important EU leadership conference on December 9th. A plan that calls for a united eurozone bond should ease market fears, but any attempt to divide the eurozone could cause the euro to finally bleed out.