????如果到本周歐盟緊急峰會(huì)結(jié)束時(shí)歐元區(qū)還不能拿出一個(gè)真正可信的方案來解曠日持久的主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾（Standard and Poor's）稱，歐元區(qū)所有成員國——包括AAA評(píng)級(jí)的德國和法國——的評(píng)級(jí)可能都會(huì)被下調(diào)一檔，甚至兩檔。周一該消息一傳出，全球齊聲驚呼。隨后，亞歐市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)大跌。憤怒的政客和專家門質(zhì)問道：歐元區(qū)似乎好不容易要齊心協(xié)力采取行動(dòng)了，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾怎么能在這個(gè)時(shí)候這么干？

????理由很簡(jiǎn)單——?dú)W元區(qū)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人其實(shí)連解決危機(jī)的門都還沒摸到。德法兩國計(jì)劃本周五在緊急峰會(huì)上推出的“新財(cái)政條約”力度還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠，不太可能終結(jié)這場(chǎng)似乎沒有盡頭的危機(jī)。在這個(gè)時(shí)候，除非歐洲央行（the European Central Bank）挺身而出，擔(dān)當(dāng)歐元區(qū)的最后貸款人，否則新財(cái)政條約就是一桿沒裝子彈的槍。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾希望，歐元區(qū)評(píng)級(jí)可能面臨大面積下調(diào)的前景或許能迫使這個(gè)內(nèi)部差異很大的集團(tuán)最終能同心協(xié)力地解決這場(chǎng)危機(jī)。

????周一，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾等到美國市場(chǎng)收盤后宣布，已將歐元區(qū)15個(gè)成員國列入負(fù)面信貸觀察名單。在其出具的說明性特別報(bào)告中，只有希臘（信貸評(píng)級(jí)為垃圾級(jí)）和塞浦路斯（早已列入負(fù)面信貸觀察名單）未被列入。雖然本月外界對(duì)有些歐元區(qū)成員國（尤其是法國）的評(píng)級(jí)可能被下調(diào)早有預(yù)期，但標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾將整個(gè)歐元區(qū)納入評(píng)級(jí)可能下調(diào)之列仍有點(diǎn)讓人意外，包括奧地利、荷蘭、芬蘭和彈丸小國盧森堡等財(cái)政審慎的國家。

????標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾選擇在在本周末關(guān)鍵的歐盟峰會(huì)前夕發(fā)布下調(diào)信用評(píng)級(jí)的預(yù)期絕非巧合。評(píng)級(jí)下調(diào)威脅就如同達(dá)摩克利斯之劍懸在成員國的頭頂，意在引起相關(guān)國家的注意。

????“我們認(rèn)為，這場(chǎng)危機(jī)深化和蔓延的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已顯著上升?？紤]到歐洲貨幣聯(lián)盟內(nèi)部各個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體和金融市場(chǎng)間的緊密相連，事態(tài)發(fā)展將席卷整個(gè)貨幣聯(lián)盟，”標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾在報(bào)告中這樣解釋緣由。

????形勢(shì)已經(jīng)空前明朗。自從去年春天歐債危機(jī)首次爆發(fā)以來，歐元區(qū)成員國已舉行了約23次高級(jí)別會(huì)議，討論解決危機(jī)的各種方法。不幸的是，所有會(huì)談都未能讓歐盟成員國同心同德，以一個(gè)有凝聚力的集體思考問題。歐元區(qū)成員國中，仍然存在“我們和他們”這樣的心態(tài)。北歐那些“財(cái)政審慎”的國家曾受益于弱勢(shì)歐元和貿(mào)易區(qū)的擴(kuò)大，現(xiàn)在卻不愿承擔(dān)這一紅利帶來的后果，不愿資助那些負(fù)債累累、“揮霍無度”的南歐國家，雖然后者的負(fù)債部分就是源于向北歐購買商品和服務(wù)。

????If the eurozone fails to present a truly viable plan to resolve the long-running sovereign debt crisis by the conclusion of this week's emergency EU summit, all of its members, including triple-A rated Germany and France, could see their credit ratings slashed by one or even two notches, according to Standard and Poor's. One could hear the collective gasps of shock around the world following yesterday's announcement. Markets later tumbled in Asia and Europe in response. Angry politicians and pundits asked: How could S&P do this now, just when the eurozone looks like it is finally getting it's act together?

????The reason is simple – eurozone leaders aren't even close to solving this crisis. The "new fiscal compact" that Germany and France plan to reveal at the emergency summit this Friday is weak and will most likely fail to put an end to this seemingly endless crisis. At this point, unless the European Central Bank steps up to become the eurozone's lender of last resort, the compact will be seen as a gun without ammunition. S&P hopes that the threat of a massive downgrade of the eurozone will force this disparate bunch to finally act collectively to solve this crisis.

????S&P waited till the end of U.S. trading on Monday to announce that they had put 15 members of the eurozone on negative credit watch. Only Greece, which has a junk credit rating, and Cyprus, which is already on negative credit watch, were spared from a special report from the credit rating agency explaining their move. While a downgrade of some of the eurozone's members was expected this month, most notably France, it came as a bit of a shock that S&P would put the entire eurozone on the chopping block, including fiscally prudent countries like Austria, the Netherlands, Finland and tiny Luxembourg.

????S&P's downgrade on the eve of a critical EU summit this weekend is no coincidence. The threat, hanging like the sword of Damocles over the head of the members, was meant to get their attention.

????"We believe that the risks of a deepening and broadening of the crisis have risen markedly and the repercussions of this development will in our view be felt across the monetary union, considering the interconnectedness of the EMU economies and financial markets," S&P wrote in a note explaining its move.

????It doesn't get any clearer than that. There have been around 23 high profile meetings among eurozone members since the crisis first broke out in the spring of last year to discuss ways to put this issue to bed. Unfortunately, all this talking has failed to get the members to think collectively as one cohesive unit. There is still an "us versus them" mentality among the eurozone members. The "fiscally prudent" nations from Northern Europe, which have benefitted from a weak euro and expanded trading zone, are unwilling to absorb the consequences of that perk by aiding the "profligate" southern European countries that have racked up tons of debt, due, in part, from buying goods and services from the north.