????標準普爾承認，歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟和市場的緊密相連意味著他們的前途已經(jīng)注定。歐元區(qū)形勢進一步惡化將意味著包括北歐國家在內(nèi)的所有成員國的經(jīng)濟衰退，從而加劇債務(wù)風(fēng)險水平。

????上周末，德法兩國開會討論建立某種形式的財政聯(lián)盟。這樣的一個聯(lián)盟將意味著朝著解決危機邁出了一大步。問題是這個由兩個歐元區(qū)核心經(jīng)濟體提議的“聯(lián)盟”看上去根本就不是什么聯(lián)盟。初步報道顯示，該財政聯(lián)盟將敦促成員國遵守早已明文規(guī)定的債務(wù)上限水平。相關(guān)條例要求負債/GDP比率超過60%的成員國其預(yù)算赤字不得超過3%，但過去十年歐元區(qū)幾乎所有成員國（包括德國）都曾在某個時候違反過這些條例。為什么？因為違反條例不會產(chǎn)生后果。這些“條例”更多地變成了“建議”，人們熟視無睹，結(jié)果才導(dǎo)致了今天的危機。

????“新財政條約”現(xiàn)在要對那些不遵守赤字規(guī)定的成員國實施“處罰”。目前不清楚具體如何執(zhí)行。最初德國希望歐洲法院（European Court of Justice）能宣布國家預(yù)算無效，強制成員國遵守赤字條例，但法國反對這一提議。如果果真能賦予歐洲法院這個權(quán)力，那么“新財政條約”可能還會對市場產(chǎn)生一定的影響。沒有這一條，“新財政條約”更像是一個建議，而不是具有約束力的協(xié)議。更糟糕的是，德法兩國都認為，發(fā)行共同債券工具（即常說的歐元債券）不符合他們的利益。

????但一個真正的財政聯(lián)盟意味著所有成員國的稅收和債務(wù)共享共擔。德國需要與希臘分享財富，意大利的債務(wù)壓力則需要財力更為雄厚的成員國（如荷蘭）來共同分擔。稅收的重新分配以及支出政策的協(xié)調(diào)將確保歐元區(qū)能夠在歐洲央行的貨幣政策之下步調(diào)一致地采取行動。

????如果不能實現(xiàn)債務(wù)和稅收共擔共享，拯救歐元的唯一途徑是歐洲央行必須正式成為歐元區(qū)的最后貸款人。歐洲央行將能按需印錢，用于購買和支持南歐國家的債券，直到私人投資者重返市場。歐洲央行行長上周表示，如果歐元區(qū)能夠在協(xié)調(diào)財政政策方面取得更有更具實質(zhì)意義的進展，央行愿意在市場中采取更積極的行動。

????目前不清楚歐洲央行是否會將法德計劃視為具有實質(zhì)性的意義。目前來看，該計劃的力度仍顯不夠。標準普爾指出，歐洲央行的支持對于解決這場危機至關(guān)重要，也能避免大面積的評級下調(diào)。周一標準普爾公布上述消息后，法德兩國發(fā)布了一項聯(lián)合聲明，稱他們支持“新財政條約”。但如果本周末這項計劃得不到充實，這兩個國家都要做好評級被下調(diào)的準備。

????S&P recognized that the interconnectedness of the eurozone means that their fates are sealed. Further deterioration of the eurozone will mean a recession for all of its members, including those in the north, raising the risk level of their debt.

????Germany and France met last weekend to discuss forming some sort of fiscal union. Such a union would be a giant leap forward in solving this crisis. Trouble is, the "union" that was proposed by the two anchor members of the euro doesn't seem to be much of a union at all. Preliminary reports show that the fiscal union proposed would push nations to comply with debt ceiling levels that are already on the books. Those rules, which bar countries that have a debt to GDP ratio of over 60% from running budget deficits in excess of 3%, have been violated by almost all members of the eurozone at some point in the last decade – including Germany. Why? Because there was no consequence in doing so. The "rule" became more of a suggestion and everyone just ignored it, leading up to today's crisis.

????The agreement would now levy "sanctions" on those members that fail to adhere to the deficit rules. It is unclear how this will all work. Germany had originally wanted the European Court of Justice to be able to declare national budgets invalid and force nations to comply with the deficit rules, but France objected to that proposal. If the ECJ had that power, then this agreement might have stood a chance of impressing the markets. Taking that provision out now makes this union more a suggestion than a binding agreement. To make matters worse, both nations agreed that the issuing of a common debt instrument, known colloquially as a Eurobond, would not be in their best interest.

????But a true fiscal union would involve the pooling of tax receipts and debt among all members. The fortunes of Germany would need to be shared with that of Greece, while the burdens of Italy would need to be shouldered by stronger members, like the Netherlands. The redistribution of taxes and the harmonization of spending policies would ensure that the eurozone moves in lockstep with the monetary policies of the euro's central bank, the ECB.

????Without the pooling of debt and taxes, the only way that the euro can be saved is if the ECB officially becomes the lender of last resort for the eurozone. The ECB would be able to print as much money as needed to buy and support the debt of the southern European nations, until private investors get back in the game. The head of the ECB signaled last week that the bank would become more active in the market if it saw a more meaningful alignment of fiscal policies across the eurozone.

????It is unclear if the ECB would interpret the Franco-German plan as meaningful. As it stands now, the plan looks toothless. S&P noted that ECB backing would be critical to solving this crisis and that its support could avoid a mass downgrade. After S&P's announcement yesterday, France and Germany issued a joint statement saying they stand by their agreement. But if the plan isn't beefed up this weekend, then both nations should be prepare to fall together.