????戴維?羅森博格

????加拿大Gluskin Sheff資產(chǎn)管理公司

????形勢越糟糕，戴維?羅森博格的預(yù)測似乎就越準(zhǔn)確。在美林集團(tuán)（Merrill Lynch）被美國銀行收購之后，這位悲觀主義者便離開了美林，回到了老家多倫多，并成為Gluskin Sheff公司的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家。之后，他的經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測便屢屢得到證實(shí)，尤其是在2011年。

????早在一月份時(shí)，其他經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家都在尋找各種跡象，證明全球經(jīng)濟(jì)正在開始復(fù)蘇，但羅森博格卻將其稱為“熊市反彈”。他認(rèn)為，十年期國債的收益率將大幅下跌。正如他之后所說，這讓他冒了巨大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?！拔艺f過，（收益率）就會(huì)像7月份休斯敦人行道上的雪球一樣融化?！?/p>

????事實(shí)確實(shí)如此：今年8月中旬，國債收益率有史以來首次下跌到2%以下，之后便一直在這一低位徘徊。羅森博格稱：“大多數(shù)人仍以老套的商業(yè)周期來看待當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢?！彼€認(rèn)為，歷史上的經(jīng)濟(jì)模式應(yīng)該被放棄了（按照這套經(jīng)濟(jì)模式，GDP目前應(yīng)該出現(xiàn)更為強(qiáng)勁的增長）。他對(duì)2012年是怎么看的呢？他認(rèn)為通過總統(tǒng)大選、中國的財(cái)政制度和歐元的形勢，答案已經(jīng)顯而易見，雖然這樣的答案可能并非我們希望看到的。他說：“2012年，皇帝的新衣終將被扯下?！?/p>

????譯者：阿龍/汪皓

????David Rosenberg

????Gluskin Sheff

????The worse things get, the more accurate David Rosenberg looks. The longtime bear decamped from Merrill Lynch following the Bank of America (BAC) takeover and returned to his home city of Toronto, where he became chief economist at Gluskin Sheff. Since then he has consistently nailed his economic projections, particularly in 2011.

????Back in January, when others were looking for signs that the global economy was beginning to rebound, Rosenberg called it a "bear market rally." He said that yields on 10-year Treasury bonds would plummet. As he later described it, that was sticking his neck out even further than he had in the past. "I said [yields] would melt like a snowball on the sidewalk in Houston in July."

????Consider them melted: In mid-August, yields fell below 2% for the first time ever, where they've more or less remained. "Most people are still looking through the lens of a garden-variety business cycle," Rosenberg says, adding that the economic patterns of history -- which would have indicated much stronger GDP growth by now -- have to go out the window. His take on 2012? He thinks we'll get answers -- from the presidential elections, Chinese fiscal policy, and the euro -- even though they may not be the ones we want. "In 2012," he says, "the emperor will be disrobed."