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倫敦能保住全球金融中心的地位嗎?

倫敦能保住全球金融中心的地位嗎?

Katherine Ryder 2011-12-20
無論愛也好,恨也罷,英國(guó)首相卡梅倫為保護(hù)本國(guó)銀行系統(tǒng)而脫離歐盟的決定已經(jīng)使倫敦重新成為國(guó)際關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)??穫惖哪康暮苊鞔_:在歐元區(qū)爆發(fā)債務(wù)危機(jī)之際,英國(guó)最大的挑戰(zhàn)就是確保倫敦金融業(yè)的盈利能力不受波及。但眼下,德國(guó)總理默克爾和法國(guó)總統(tǒng)薩科齊正面臨著壓力,需要彌合分歧,拯救歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)。在這個(gè)節(jié)骨眼上尋求特殊待遇,顯然稱不上精明的政治舉措。

保衛(wèi)銀行

????卡梅倫的要求很簡(jiǎn)單:在歐元區(qū)爆發(fā)債務(wù)危機(jī)之際,英國(guó)最大的挑戰(zhàn)就是確保倫敦金融業(yè)的盈利能力不受波及。眼下,占領(lǐng)倫敦運(yùn)動(dòng)的抗議者晚上睡在金融城的帳篷里,白天去金絲雀碼頭帶頭進(jìn)行“惡棍游行”,鑒于這種背景,這種觀點(diǎn)并非沒有爭(zhēng)議。對(duì)于復(fù)雜融資大行其道的歲月,隨后的金融危機(jī),以及其對(duì)整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成的破壞性影響,大多數(shù)英國(guó)人依然余怒未消。

????然而,卡梅倫的立場(chǎng)卻符合英國(guó)政治家長(zhǎng)久以來竭盡全力為銀行謀利益的傳統(tǒng)。上世紀(jì)60年代,美國(guó)開始對(duì)華爾街執(zhí)行嚴(yán)苛的監(jiān)管制度,英國(guó)卻繼續(xù)實(shí)施輕度監(jiān)管政策,并進(jìn)一步放松了工作簽證要求,由此迎來了許多美國(guó)銀行和其他外國(guó)機(jī)構(gòu)。這番努力大獲成功。倫敦現(xiàn)在擁有全球最大的跨境銀行借貸市場(chǎng)、外匯市場(chǎng)和場(chǎng)外(OTC)衍生品市場(chǎng)。金融城管理的每3美元中,就有1美元源自海外。2010年,世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇(World Economic Forum)宣稱倫敦是全球首屈一指的金融中心。

????全球金融危機(jī)及其對(duì)借貸市場(chǎng)帶來的余波注定會(huì)削弱任何一個(gè)以金融作為主要出口項(xiàng)目的民主國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力。針對(duì)金融城的監(jiān)管業(yè)已收緊——銀行現(xiàn)在不得不持有更多的資本,最富裕的金融家(無論他是英國(guó)人,還是外國(guó)人)需要繳納的稅收也遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于過去的水平。然而,銀行家們目前最擔(dān)心的并不是倫敦監(jiān)管當(dāng)局,而是布魯塞爾。肩負(fù)監(jiān)管之責(zé)的英國(guó)金融服務(wù)管理局(FSA)表示,該機(jī)構(gòu)大約70%的政策都受到歐盟相關(guān)方案的影響(而歐盟在進(jìn)行決策時(shí),并不會(huì)以維系倫敦的金融中心地位為準(zhǔn)繩)。

????這個(gè)問題凸顯了歐盟當(dāng)前面臨的兩難處境:如何在迥然不同的政體間實(shí)現(xiàn)主權(quán)共享這一理念。為了讓歐盟存活下去,德國(guó)和法國(guó)試圖施加嚴(yán)厲的緊縮措施,其中許多措施直指銀行?!稓W洲市場(chǎng)基礎(chǔ)作業(yè)監(jiān)理改革提案》(European Market Infrastructure Regulation)旨在壓縮倫敦衍生品市場(chǎng)的規(guī)模。最讓倫敦苦惱的主意莫過于金融交易稅,它的開征將顯著提升所有銀行開展業(yè)務(wù)的成本。

????歐盟委員會(huì)稱,這一稅收每年將籌集750億美元的資金。但英國(guó)財(cái)政大臣喬治?奧斯本在一次言辭激烈的演講中指出,由于歐洲超過三分之一的批發(fā)銀行市場(chǎng)都是在倫敦之外運(yùn)作,這筆賬單80%的費(fèi)用最終將由英國(guó)來承擔(dān)。

????更廣泛地說,英國(guó)強(qiáng)烈地感受到,歐盟的金融監(jiān)管是不對(duì)稱的:“英國(guó)是在監(jiān)管銀行,而歐盟是在懲罰銀行,”金融創(chuàng)新研究中心(Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation)主任安德魯?希爾頓博士如是說。

Defending the banks

????Cameron's claim is simple: That Britain's biggest challenge when it comes to the eurozone crisis is making sure that the profitability of London's financial sector remains intact. Yet given the backdrop -- Occupy London protestors sleeping in the City in tents and leading "villain tours" through Canary Wharf -- the point isn't uncontroversial. Most British are still angry at the reckless years of high finance, the ensuing financial crisis, and its ravaging effects across the economy.

????Yet Cameron's stand fits within a long history of British politicians bending over backward for banks. In the 1960s, after the U.S. enforced harsh regulation on Wall Street, the U.K. welcomed American banks and other foreign firms by keeping regulation light and work permit requirements relaxed. The effort was a striking success. London now has the largest global cross-border bank lending market, foreign exchange market, and over-the-counter derivatives market. One out of three dollars managed in the city is foreign. In 2010, the World Economic Forum declared London to be the world's leading financial center.

????The global financial crisis and its reverberations in lending markets were bound to weaken any democracy with finance as its strongest export. Regulations in the City have tightened—banks now have to hold more capital, and the richest financiers, whether English or foreign, have to pay a lot more in taxes. The primary present concern of the banks, however, is Brussels, not London. The FSA, Britain's financial regulatory authority, says that around 70% of its policy-making efforts are driven by European initiatives that are not geared toward preserving London as a financial center.

????The problem underscores the entire dilemma with the European Union: the idea of sharing sovereignty among very different regimes. For the European Union to survive, Germany and France want to impose tough austerity measures, in many cases targeting banks. The EMIR--the European Market Infrastructure Regulation--aims to shrink London's derivatives market. The most disturbing idea to London is a financial transaction tax, which will dramatically increase the cost of doing business for every bank.

????The European Commission says such a tax would raise $75 billion per year. But since more than a third of Europe's wholesale finance market operates out of London, England would end up footing 80% of the bill, according to a damning speech by UK Chancellor George Osborne.

????More broadly, there is a strong sense in the UK that European financial regulation is disproportionate: "England regulates its banks. Europe punishes theirs," says Dr. Andrew Hilton, director of the Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation.

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