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黃金為何光芒不再

黃金為何光芒不再

Nin-Hai Tseng 2011-12-22
金價正在接近熊市區(qū)間,但當(dāng)初促使很多投資者購入黃金的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)擔(dān)憂仍存。究竟是怎么回事?

????金價連續(xù)第十一年上漲,成就了這一黃色金屬跨時最長的一輪漲勢。而且,在2011年的大多數(shù)時間里,金價攀升的勢頭似乎也所向披靡——9月份更是突破了1,900美元/盎司,創(chuàng)下高點(diǎn)。

????但最近幾個月,很多知名投資者已經(jīng)開始拋售所持頭寸,這表明黃金的輝煌歲月可能即將終結(jié)。

????億萬富翁投資人喬治?索羅斯曾經(jīng)將黃金稱為“終極泡沫”,他早在5月份就減持了黃金上市交易基金SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)。對沖基金經(jīng)理、長期看多黃金人士約翰?保爾森硬挺了幾個月,第三季度也終于將黃金倉位削減了1/3。

????而且就在上周,曾正確預(yù)測2008年大宗商品價格暴跌的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家丹尼斯?加特曼也將所持黃金悉數(shù)售罄。他強(qiáng)調(diào)說,他并不看跌黃金,但這一貴金屬已不完全是很多投資者所熟悉的避風(fēng)港了。

????誠然,黃金市場中還沒有什么人在高叫“熊來了”。但即便是最看漲的投資者也承認(rèn)市場人氣已發(fā)生了顯著變化。

????上一次金價大跌是在1980年,當(dāng)時金價在一年內(nèi)跌去了60%以上。直到二十年后的2000年,投資者才開始看到正向回報。難道黃金正在重返熊市嗎?

????自9月份見頂以來,金價已跌去了約15%。從技術(shù)角度而言,下跌20%即證明熊市開始。如今大宗商品投資市場變幻莫測,誰也說不準(zhǔn)價格可能跌多少,但黃金距離正式進(jìn)入熊市區(qū)間已不太遠(yuǎn)了。

????以下四個跡象表明黃金可能正在褪去其金燦燦的誘人光芒:

美國國債比黃金更受投資者寵愛

????世界可能崩潰,但黃金的價值將永存。大多數(shù)人秉持的這個觀點(diǎn)長期以來一直在推動金價上漲。與其他大宗商品不同,黃金以內(nèi)在價值著稱,因為黃金鮮有實際用途。黃金一直被視為是在股市下跌和經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩時期的避風(fēng)港。

????但眼下歐洲官員正全力應(yīng)付債務(wù)危機(jī),極力避免墮入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,投資者事實上已經(jīng)開始撤出黃金了。每日金價的劇烈波動已促使投資者尋找更安全的避風(fēng)港,他們已經(jīng)找到了美國國債。頗具諷刺意味的是,4個月前標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾(Standard & Poor's)剛剛下調(diào)了美國完美的AAA信用評級。

????For the 11th year in a row, gold prices have rallied, making this one of the longest winning streaks for the yellow metal. And for most of 2011, it seemed like nothing could stop prices from climbing -- gold prices peaked in September at more than $1,900 an ounce.

????But in recent months, many high-profile investors have sold their positions, suggesting that gold's glory days could be coming to an end.

????Billionaire investor George Soros, who called gold "the ultimate bubble," cut his holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) as early as May. Hedge fund manager and long-time gold bull John Paulson held tight for a few months, but eventually slashed his gold holdings by a third during the third quarter.

????And last week, economist Dennis Gartman, who correctly predicted the slump in commodities in 2008, sold off the last of his bullion. He stresses that he isn't bearish on gold, but thinks the precious metal isn't exactly the safe haven that many investors have come to know it.

????Admittedly, few are screaming bear in the gold market. But even the most bullish investors admit sentiments have changed in a noticeable way.

????The last time gold went bust was in 1980, when prices dropped more than 60% in a single year. It wasn't until 20 years later, in 2000, that investors saw positive returns. Is gold returning to a bear market?

????Since its September peak, gold has since lost about 15% of its value. Technically, it takes a 20% decline for a bear market to transpire. It's anyone's guess where price may fall in the murky world of commodities investing, but the precious metal doesn't have far to go before it formally enters bearish territory.

????Here are four signs that suggest gold may be losing its glitter:

U.S. Treasuries get more love than gold

????The world could nearly collapse, but the value of gold will remain. That popular notion has long fueled the rise of the yellow metal. Unlike other commodities, gold is known for its intrinsic value since there are few practical uses for it. And yet, it has been viewed as a safe haven from slumping stock markets and slow growth.

????But at a time when European officials struggle with debt woes and slip closer to a recession, investors have actually been scurrying away from gold. Daily price swings have sent investors looking for an even safer bet, and they've found it in U.S. Treasuries. Ironically enough, this comes only four months after Standard & Poor's stripped the U.S. of its stellar triple-A rating.

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