????債券收益率一向與價(jià)格反向而動(dòng)，但它目前已跌至歷史低位。10年期美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率降至1.87%——表明投資者對(duì)于此類(lèi)證券的胃口并沒(méi)有降低多少，即便標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾曾經(jīng)警告稱，美國(guó)已經(jīng)不再是最安全的借款人。

投資者沒(méi)有過(guò)多擔(dān)憂通貨膨脹

????北卡羅來(lái)納州大學(xué)（University of North Carolina）威明頓分校的金融教授瑟汀?辛內(nèi)說(shuō)，投資者蜂涌而至投資債券也表明，他們并不十分擔(dān)憂通貨膨脹。這也部分解釋了金價(jià)的下跌；黃金常常被用作應(yīng)對(duì)物價(jià)持續(xù)上漲的保值工具。

????對(duì)黃金市場(chǎng)有廣泛研究的辛內(nèi)表示：“很難預(yù)測(cè)金價(jià)最終會(huì)走向哪里，但歸根結(jié)底，基本面已經(jīng)不存在了。黃金不再是人們?cè)?jīng)認(rèn)為的安全投資了。現(xiàn)在投資黃金實(shí)際上已經(jīng)變得十分危險(xiǎn)?！?/p>

金價(jià)已跌至200日移動(dòng)均線之下

????金價(jià)跌破200日移動(dòng)均線時(shí)，投資者通常都會(huì)引起警覺(jué)。上周，金價(jià)兩年來(lái)首次跌破200日均線1,615美元/盎司，目前報(bào)于1,613美元/盎司。盡管分析師們并未據(jù)此宣告進(jìn)入熊市，但波士頓大學(xué)（Boston University）的金融學(xué)講師馬克?威廉姆斯表示，投資者應(yīng)當(dāng)將此視為“警示信號(hào)”。

????“下一阻力位是1,500美元，”曾任場(chǎng)內(nèi)交易執(zhí)行的威廉姆斯表示?！叭绻饍r(jià)跌破這一水平，將進(jìn)一步證明，9月份在1,900美元上方見(jiàn)頂?shù)狞S金泡沫已開(kāi)始破裂。”

黃金價(jià)格超過(guò)鉑金

????再來(lái)看鉑金，這是一種同時(shí)還具備工業(yè)用途的貴金屬。從歷史上看，鉑金價(jià)格通常比黃金價(jià)格高100美元或更多。但8月份當(dāng)金價(jià)接近近期峰值，這種狀況發(fā)生了變化。威廉姆斯指出，這是表明金價(jià)虛高的另一個(gè)指征。他說(shuō)，以當(dāng)前鉑金價(jià)格1,400美元/盎司來(lái)看，黃金價(jià)格可能跌至1,300美元甚至更低。

????Bond yields, which move opposite of prices, have fallen to historic lows. Ten-year Treasuries have dropped to 1.87% -- proving that investors' appetite for such securities haven't waned much, even as S&P warns that the U.S. is no longer the safest of borrowers.

Investors aren't too worried about inflation

????The flock to bonds also signals that investors aren't very worried about inflation, says Cetin Ciner, finance professor at the University of North Carolina in Wilmington. This partly explains the fall in gold, which is often used as a hedge against steadily rising prices.

????"It's very hard to predict where prices could go, but ultimately the fundamentals are not there," says Ciner, who has done extensive research on the gold market. "It's not the safe investment that people thought it was. It has actually become very dangerous right now."

Prices have fallen below gold's 200-day moving average

????When gold falls below the 200-day moving average, investors typically take notice. Last week, for the first time in two years, the precious metal fell below the average of $1,615 an ounce and is currently trading at $1,613 an ounce. Though this hasn't led analysts to call a bear market, Boston University finance lecturer Mark Williams says investors should take the development as a "wake-up call."

????"The next resistance level is $1,500," says Williams, a former trading floor executive. "If gold drops below this floor, it is further proof that the bubble, which peaked in September at more than $1,900, has begun to burst."

Gold beats platinum

????And then there's platinum, a precious metal that also has industrial uses. Historically, platinum trades at a premium of $100 or more over gold. But that shifted in August when gold neared its most recent peak. Williams points out that this is another indicator that gold prices are inflated. At current platinum prices of $1,400 an ounce, gold could fall to $1,300 or lower, he says.