????當(dāng)今世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展可謂悲喜兩重天。美國及其他發(fā)達(dá)國家仍然在高失業(yè)率、產(chǎn)能閑置、樓市低迷和增長(zhǎng)乏力的泥潭中苦苦掙扎。雖然利率已處于歷史低點(diǎn)，很多發(fā)達(dá)國家的信貸依然緊張。歐洲國家負(fù)債累累，使得任何投資其銀行系統(tǒng)的人都面臨高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

????與之形成對(duì)比的是，國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）近期的一份報(bào)告顯示，全球金融危機(jī)并未對(duì)中國、印度、巴西和其他新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體“產(chǎn)生持續(xù)性傷害”。大部分新興市場(chǎng)的狀況都好于發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng)在危機(jī)爆發(fā)前的情形——新興市場(chǎng)的公共債務(wù)較低，國內(nèi)儲(chǔ)蓄率較高，出口更強(qiáng)勁。在很多新興市場(chǎng)的首都，決策者們更多擔(dān)心的是經(jīng)濟(jì)過熱的可能性，而不是經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯。數(shù)字可以說明問題：IMF預(yù)計(jì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)今年和明年將每年增長(zhǎng)4.5%，但發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的年增長(zhǎng)率可能只有2.5%，而發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體為6.5%。

????這些對(duì)投資者意味著什么？麥肯錫全球研究院（McKinsey Global Institute）的一項(xiàng)最新研究認(rèn)為，新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體將是未來十年的投資熱土。新興世界的金融資產(chǎn)積累速度早已遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)快于紐約、倫敦和東京等傳統(tǒng)銀行中心。全球股票、債券和貸款總額去年增加了11萬億美元至212萬億美元（見下圖）。但成熟經(jīng)濟(jì)體部分僅增長(zhǎng)了3.9%，發(fā)展中世界增長(zhǎng)了13.5%，當(dāng)然，后者的基數(shù)肯定低得多。目前發(fā)達(dá)世界仍掌握著全球大約79%的金融資產(chǎn)，預(yù)計(jì)到2020年新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體部分將增長(zhǎng)近一倍，從現(xiàn)在的21%升至36%。

????Today, essentially two global economies exist side by side. The U.S. and its advanced peers continue to struggle with high unemployment, idle capacity, depressed housing markets, and anemic growth. Credit remains tight in much of the developed world, despite historically low interest rates. Debt-laden European nations pose heightened risk for anyone exposed to their banking system.

????By contrast, the global financial crisis has "left no lasting wounds" on China, India, Brazil, and other emerging economies, according to a recent IMF report. Emerging markets were for the most part in better shape than their advanced counterparts before the crisis, with less public debt, higher domestic savings rates, and stronger exports. In many developing-world capitals, policymakers worry more about their economies overheating than stalling out. Numbers tell the story: The IMF expects the world economy to grow at an annual rate of 4.5% this year and next. But advanced economies are likely to see annual growth of only 2.5%, vs. 6.5% for the developing world.

????What does all this mean for investors? A new study by the McKinsey Global Institute suggests that emerging economies will be the place to invest over the next decade. Already the developing world is amassing financial assets at a much faster rate than are traditional banking centers like New York, London, and Tokyo. The total amount of global stocks, bonds, and loans increased by $11 trillion last year to $212 trillion (see chart below). However, the share in mature economies rose by only 3.9%, compared with 13.5% in the developing world, which of course grew from a far smaller base. While it is true that the rich world still commands some 79% of the world's financial assets, the emerging economies' share is expected to nearly double, from 21% today to as much as 36% by 2020.

????挑戰(zhàn)之一：新興市場(chǎng)本地投資者傾向于將錢存入銀行賬戶及購買固定收益證券，而不投資股票市場(chǎng)。企業(yè)能獲得足夠的股票融資來維持強(qiáng)勁的增長(zhǎng)嗎？相信新興市場(chǎng)投資者會(huì)逐漸熱衷于股票，前提當(dāng)然是亞洲和拉美的一些證交所能實(shí)施更嚴(yán)格的上市要求來提高投資者信心。這種變化或許已經(jīng)開始出現(xiàn)了。麥肯錫的報(bào)告稱，中國已成為全球最大的IPO市場(chǎng)，去年發(fā)行募資1,250億美元。（相比之下，美國僅發(fā)行募資350億美元。）嘉能可（Glencore）、普拉達(dá)（Prada）等西方公司最近在香港交易所掛牌?？煽诳蓸罚–oca-Cola）也在探索在上海上市的可能。若要了解全球資金正在流向哪里，請(qǐng)繼續(xù)往下看。

????One challenge: Local investors in emerging markets tend to put most of their money in bank accounts and fixed-income securities rather than in the stock market. Will companies be able to raise enough equity to keep growth humming? The bet is that emerging-markets investors eventually will warm to equities, assuming of course that Asian and Latin American exchanges can boost investor confidence by adopting stricter listing requirements. It already may be starting to happen. McKinsey reports that China is the new world leader in IPOs, with $125 billion raised last year. (The U.S., by contrast, raised only $35 billion.) Western companies like Glencore and Prada have recently listed shares on the Hong Kong exchange. And Coca-Cola (KO) is currently exploring a listing in Shanghai. For a picture of where the world of money is headed, read on.