????但還是有些分析師并沒有排除這種可能性。野村外匯策略師詹斯?諾德維格在1月份的報告中指出，解體可能有兩種方式。第一種是逐步瓦解，緣由是希臘或葡萄牙、或者兩國的政府部門都沒能如期推行改革，無法滿足歐盟（European Union）救助方案提出的要求。諾德維格指出，在這種情況下，歐元可能繼續(xù)存在，只有幾個小國會改用自己新的本國貨幣。

????第二種的可能性小一些（但也不是完全不可能），即一旦歐元區(qū)大國（比如意大利）違約，可能引發(fā)歐元區(qū)全面解體。屆時，歐元將被廢止，歐洲央行將解體，所有的歐元區(qū)國家都將改用新的本國貨幣或組建新的貨幣聯(lián)盟，也就是說，發(fā)行新貨幣，設(shè)立新央行。

????“歐洲決策層一直表示會‘竭盡所能’拯救歐元，”諾德維格在1月份的報告中稱?！暗Ч硪呀?jīng)逃出了瓶子，對各種解體情形的討論也已經(jīng)更加公開化?！?/p>

????現(xiàn)在的問題是可能出現(xiàn)的歐元區(qū)解體到底將會如何展開。

????But that doesn't mean some aren't ruling the possibility out. In a January report, Nomura foreign exchange strategist Jens Nordvig said a break-up could play out two ways. First, it could happen gradually, whereby a political setback in Greece and/or Portugal lead the countries to miss requirements demanded by the European Union of its rescue packages. In that case, Nordvig noted, the euro will likely remain in existence since only a few smaller countries would end up adopting their own new national currencies.

????The less likely scenario – albeit, not entirely implausible – is the case of a full-blown break-up in the event that larger euro zone economies such as Italy default. The euro would then cease to exist, the European Central Bank would be dissolved and all euro zone countries would convert to new national currencies or perhaps form new currency unions with new currencies and a new central bank.

????"European policymakers continue to argue that they will do 'what is needed' to save the euro," Nordvig noted in his January report. "But the genie is out of the bottle, and various break-up scenarios are now being discussed more openly."

????The question is how a potential break-up could unfold.