????專家和政界都將歐元危機(jī)歸咎于那些違反預(yù)算條例、恣意揮霍的國(guó)家，因?yàn)轭A(yù)算條例正是歐元這個(gè)單一貨幣的重要支柱。如果西班牙、意大利和希臘能壓縮令人瞠目的預(yù)算赤字，遏制如山般債務(wù)的增長(zhǎng)，專家們相信歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)仍能恢復(fù)繁榮。因此，迄今提出的一些解決方案都是圍繞“財(cái)政整合”進(jìn)行，即實(shí)施新的法規(guī)，賦予歐盟（European Union）限制成員國(guó)支出和負(fù)債的廣泛權(quán)力，同時(shí)出臺(tái)嚴(yán)厲的處罰措施，確保歐元區(qū)成員國(guó)無(wú)人敢逾越雷池。

????這就是2011年12月份德國(guó)總理默克爾和法國(guó)總統(tǒng)薩科齊舉行峰會(huì)期間所商談草案的核心。本周一，這兩位領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人又在柏林會(huì)晤，重申將制定針對(duì)歐元區(qū)17個(gè)成員國(guó)的“財(cái)政協(xié)議”，并在3月1日前簽署嚴(yán)厲的新條例和處罰措施。

????然而，這個(gè)計(jì)劃不會(huì)奏效。歐洲的主要問(wèn)題并不是成員國(guó)的債務(wù)和赤字規(guī)模。事實(shí)上，目前歐元區(qū)的債務(wù)/GDP比率還不到90%，數(shù)字雖高，但明顯低于美國(guó)的100%，更別提日本的227%。

????真正的問(wèn)題在于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)：歐元區(qū)弱國(guó)如果繼續(xù)接受歐元的桎梏，就難以實(shí)現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)。意大利或希臘就無(wú)法取得足夠的稅收收入來(lái)壓縮預(yù)算赤字、減輕債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)，也不能獲得足夠的出口額來(lái)創(chuàng)造新的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)。換言之，經(jīng)濟(jì)體制的國(guó)家無(wú)力承擔(dān)美國(guó)這樣的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)國(guó)家所能夠應(yīng)對(duì)的財(cái)政壓力。

核心是競(jìng)爭(zhēng)

????歐洲弱國(guó)為什么不能實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)？原因很簡(jiǎn)單：它們的經(jīng)濟(jì)在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)上缺乏競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，因?yàn)樗鼈儽怀吖赖呢泿潘侠郏@些國(guó)家以及它們強(qiáng)大的北方鄰國(guó)似乎執(zhí)意要保留這個(gè)貨幣。要理解為什么歐元的弊病，最簡(jiǎn)單的辦法就是問(wèn)一問(wèn)這些陷入困境的國(guó)家假如恢復(fù)本國(guó)貨幣，將會(huì)怎樣？恢復(fù)本國(guó)貨幣后，貨幣匯率將由市場(chǎng)決定，而不是由外界強(qiáng)加。

????如果全球消費(fèi)者和投資者用美元、日元對(duì)希臘或意大利的商品和作物進(jìn)行投票，新的德拉克馬或里拉的匯率可能會(huì)比當(dāng)前的歐元低30%。結(jié)論：全球市場(chǎng)之所以不購(gòu)買這些國(guó)家以歐元計(jì)價(jià)的商品，是因?yàn)檫@些深陷危機(jī)的國(guó)家匯率被高估了40%以上。

????帶著這樣的鐐銬，希臘、葡萄牙或西班牙根本沒(méi)有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，也很難實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。“財(cái)政協(xié)議”也無(wú)法改變市場(chǎng)的取向。

????讓歐元區(qū)弱國(guó)陷于不利境地的是一個(gè)有點(diǎn)學(xué)究氣但非常重要的指標(biāo)，即單位勞動(dòng)力成本，比如生產(chǎn)一輛汽車、一臺(tái)個(gè)人電腦或一臺(tái)反鏟挖土機(jī)的勞動(dòng)力成本。（勞動(dòng)力通常占到總費(fèi)用的70%）。假設(shè)在西班牙需要3個(gè)工人花1個(gè)小時(shí)來(lái)生產(chǎn)一個(gè)小裝置，在德國(guó)2個(gè)工人就夠了，即德國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的生產(chǎn)率要高得多。雖然如此，西班牙工人的工資仍然達(dá)到了德國(guó)工人的90%。因此，在西班牙生產(chǎn)的這個(gè)小裝置其成本至少要比德國(guó)生產(chǎn)的高出25%。

????Pundits and politicians are blaming the euro's crisis on profligate nations that violated the budget rules designed as a pillar of the single currency. If Spain, Italy and Greece could shrink their yawning budget deficits and halt the rise in their mountainous debt, the experts argue, prosperity would return to the eurozone. Hence, the proposed solutions are all about "fiscal integration," imposing new regulations that would give the European Union broad authority to impose spending and borrowing limits in the member states -- with penalties so strict that no eurozone member could stray.

????That's the basis of the blueprint negotiated at a December summit between German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy. On Monday, the two leaders met in Berlin to renew their pledge to present a "fiscal compact" for the 17 eurozone countries, promising a new set of stiff rules and penalties by March 1.

????Their master plan won't work. Europe's principal problem isn't the size of its members' debt and deficits. In fact, the eurozone's debt to GDP ratio now stands at less than 90%, a big number, but well below the U.S. level of 100%, not to mention Japan's 227% ratio.

????The real rub is growth: The weak eurozone nations can barely grow as long as they remain in harnessed to the euro. As a result, an Italy or Greece can't generate the tax revenues to shrink those deficits, or lower their debt burden, nor can they generate the exports needed to create new jobs. In other words, the fiscal burdens that a "growth" nation such as the U.S. can handle prove insurmountable for countries that can't grow.

Competition at the core

????Why can't Europe's weaklings grow? The reason is basic: Their economies are uncompetitive on world markets so long as they're stuck with an extremely over-valued currency that they and their powerful northern neighbors seem determined to preserve. The easiest way to understand why the euro isn't working is to ask what would happen if the ailing nations restored their own currencies, so that their value was established by the market, instead of imposed upon them.

????If the world's consumers and investors voted with their dollars and yen for Greek or Italian products and plants, a new Drachma or Lira would be worth perhaps 30% less than the current euro. Conclusion: By shunning their goods at these prices, the global market is telling us that the stricken countries' currencies are overvalued by more than 40%.

????A Greece, Portugal, or Spain simply can't compete, or grow, with that handicap. A "fiscal compact" will not change the market's verdict.

????What's pummeling weaklings is a wonkish but crucial number called "unit labor costs." It refers to the labor cost of making one car, PC or backhoe. (Labor typically accounts for 70% of total expense.) Let's say it takes three workers an hour to make a widget in Spain, and two workers can do the same job in Germany, meaning that the German economy is a lot more productive. Nevertheless, the Spanish workers earn 90% of German wages. The Spanish widget is going to cost at least 25% more than the German model.