????雖然有這些結(jié)構(gòu)性變化，美國大銀行依然聲稱，將能把股東權(quán)益回報率重新提升至兩位數(shù)，接近危機前的水平。投資者和分析師們姑且信之，但迄今失望透頂。人們普遍認為是這些銀行的員工聰明，富有創(chuàng)新意識，人脈又廣，他們總會找到辦法，能解決自己制造的麻煩，回避新的監(jiān)管限制，再度大賺其錢。

????但現(xiàn)在看來，這似乎永遠也不會出現(xiàn)了。誠然，銀行們會盈利，但30%以上的股東權(quán)益回報率已遠去。剝離風險性自營交易和附屬投資資金后，這些銀行的經(jīng)紀-交易業(yè)務和零售銀行業(yè)務的利潤率都非常低。

????目前，這些銀行致力于通過削減支出來提高股東權(quán)益回報率。它們在減少浪費方面大多較為成功，但再砍下去就會抑制其業(yè)務模式。展望未來，如果它們對提高權(quán)益回報率是認真的，就必須要提高客戶的服務費用或大幅削減員工薪酬。

????提高客戶的服務費用，目前來看似乎對經(jīng)紀和零售銀行業(yè)務打擊沉重。薪酬是銀行有直接控制力的一個領(lǐng)域。雖然銀行支付給員工的實際金額呈現(xiàn)下降，但相比銀行總營收，薪酬變化不大，有些個案反而是上升。事實上，今年高盛將薪酬比率從39%提高到了42%，即便營收下降了26%。

????毫不遜色的是摩根士丹利，51%的薪酬比率是大銀行中最高的，與去年水平差不多。摩根大通的投行薪酬比率則顯著低于高盛和摩根士丹利，僅為34%。這或許一定程度上可以解釋為何摩根大通的股東權(quán)益回報率高于高盛和摩根士丹利之和。

????今年將是銀行業(yè)的關(guān)鍵轉(zhuǎn)折年。要想提高股東權(quán)益回報率，它們所需做的不僅僅是恢復正常的經(jīng)營情況，還要大幅上調(diào)收費、削減薪酬。與此同時，投資者和分析師們則需要重新思考在二十一世紀銀行意味著什么，并對銀行的賺錢能力持更現(xiàn)實的態(tài)度。

????但也不是毫無希望。雖然在不遠的未來這些銀行可能不會再有30%以上的股東權(quán)益回報率，但如果它們與時俱進，仍有望實現(xiàn)強勁的盈利。

????Despite the structural changes, the banks still maintain that they will be able to boost their returns on equity back up to double-digits, close to where they were before the crisis. Investors and analysts have been giving the banks the benefit of the doubt, but have since been sorely disappointed. The common view is that the employees at these firms are so smart, innovative and connected that they will find some way to get out of the mess they created, dodge the new regulatory constraints and eventually return to minting money.

????But it's now looking as if that will never happen. Sure, the banks will make a profit, but gone are the days where it could make ROE's north of 30%. Stripping out the risky proprietary trading and ancillary investing silos, the banks' broker-dealer and retail banking businesses are pretty low margin.

????For now, the banks are focusing on cutting spending to boost their ROE. They have largely been successful in cutting waste, but there is only so much they can cut without jeopardizing their business models. Going forward, the banks will need to either force their clients to pay more for the services they offer or cut employee compensation dramatically if they are serious about upping their ROE.

????Getting customers to pay more for services seems to have been a bust so far on both the brokerage and retail banking ends. Compensation is the one area that the banks have direct control over. While the amount the banks pay their employees has fallen in real terms, it has not budged relative to the firm's overall revenues and in some cases, it's actually gone up. Goldman actually increased its compensation ratio this year to 42% from 39%, even though revenues at the firm were down by 26%.

????Not to be upstaged, Morgan Stanley had the highest compensation ratio of the big banks at 51%, which is roughly where it was last year. Meanwhile, JP Morgan's investment bank had a compensation ratio that was significantly lower than that of Goldman or Morgan Stanley at just 34%. That might explain in part why JP Morgan's ROE was higher than that of both Goldman and Morgan Stanley, combined.

????This year will be a critical turning point for the banks. They will need more than just a return to normal business conditions to boost their ROE -- they will need to raise fees and cut compensation aggressively. At the same time, investors and analysts need to rethink what it means to be a bank in the 21st century and be more realistic about the industry's ability to make money.

????But it isn't all doom and gloom. While the banks probably won't report an ROE above 30% in the near future, they can still post some pretty strong profits if they roll with the times.