????從現(xiàn)在開始往后推100年，其間，4億英畝農(nóng)田將產(chǎn)出無數(shù)的玉米、小麥、棉花和其他作物。而且不論我們采取什么作為貨幣，它都會繼續(xù)帶來這樣豐富的物產(chǎn)。而?？松梨诳赡芤严蚬蓶|派發(fā)了幾萬億美元的股息，且持有資產(chǎn)規(guī)模還在進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大（記住，選B組的投資者手頭擁有16家?？松梨冢?。100年內(nèi)17萬噸黃金的大小不會有絲毫變化，而且依然不會有任何產(chǎn)出。當(dāng)然，你可以撫弄這個黃金立方體，但它不會有反應(yīng)。

????不可否認(rèn)，100年后，當(dāng)人們感到害怕時，很多人可能還是會搶購黃金。但我相信，A組的當(dāng)前市值9.6萬億美元在這100年內(nèi)的復(fù)合增長率將遠(yuǎn)遜于B組。

????市場的恐懼心理達(dá)到頂點(diǎn)時，第一、第二類投資最受追捧：經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰擔(dān)憂會促使人們買入依托于貨幣的資產(chǎn)，主要是美國債券；貨幣貶值擔(dān)憂會讓人們購入黃金等無產(chǎn)出資產(chǎn)。2008年底時我們聽說“現(xiàn)金為王”，但事實(shí)上當(dāng)時本應(yīng)積極投資，而非持幣觀望。同樣，20世紀(jì)80年代初時我們又聽說“現(xiàn)金是垃圾”，但事實(shí)上當(dāng)時的固定美元投資處于我們記憶中最具吸引力的水平。這兩次，跟風(fēng)投資者們?yōu)榍笮陌?，都付出了沉重代價。

????我自己最看好的——你知道，接下來我們就要談到了——是第三類投資：投資產(chǎn)出性資產(chǎn)，不管是企業(yè)、農(nóng)場，還是房地產(chǎn)。理想的話，在通脹時期，這些資產(chǎn)只需最低水平的新資本投入，就能通過產(chǎn)出保持購買力價值。農(nóng)場、房地產(chǎn)和許多企業(yè)，比如可口可樂（Coca-Cola）、IBM以及我們自己的See's Candy都屬于這樣的優(yōu)質(zhì)資產(chǎn)。其他有些公司——比如受管制的公用事業(yè)公司——則稍遜一籌，因?yàn)橥洉o它們帶來沉重的資本投資負(fù)擔(dān)。為增加盈利，這些公司必須擴(kuò)大投入。即便如此，這類公司還是優(yōu)于無產(chǎn)出投資或基于貨幣的投資。

????不管100年后貨幣的形式是黃金、貝殼、鯊魚牙，還是今天這樣的紙幣，人們還是會愿意用幾分鐘日常勞動，換取一罐可口可樂或一些See's的花生薄脆糖。未來美國人將運(yùn)輸更多商品、消費(fèi)更多食品并需要更大的居住空間。人們永遠(yuǎn)需要將自己生產(chǎn)的東西與別人進(jìn)行交換。

????美國企業(yè)將繼續(xù)高效地生產(chǎn)出美國人需要的商品和服務(wù)。打個比方，這些商業(yè)“奶?！睂⒋婊顜装倌?，產(chǎn)出更多的“牛奶”。決定它們價值高低的不是交換介質(zhì)，而是它們的產(chǎn)奶能力。對于奶牛主而言，賣奶收入將呈復(fù)合增長，就像20世紀(jì)一樣，瓊斯指數(shù)從66點(diǎn)增長到了11,497點(diǎn)（與此同時，還支付了大筆股息）。

????伯克希爾的目標(biāo)將是增加對一流企業(yè)的持股。我們首選全盤持股——但也會通過持有相當(dāng)數(shù)量的可售股票成為股東。我相信在任何一個較長時期內(nèi)，這類投資都將證明是我們所分析的三類投資中遙遙領(lǐng)先的優(yōu)勝者。更重要的是，它也將遠(yuǎn)比其他兩類投資安全。

????譯者：zdm

????A century from now the 400 million acres of farmland will have produced staggering amounts of corn, wheat, cotton, and other crops -- and will continue to produce that valuable bounty, whatever the currency may be. Exxon Mobil (XOM) will probably have delivered trillions of dollars in dividends to its owners and will also hold assets worth many more trillions (and, remember, you get 16 Exxons). The 170,000 tons of gold will be unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything. You can fondle the cube, but it will not respond.

????Admittedly, when people a century from now are fearful, it's likely many will still rush to gold. I'm confident, however, that the $9.6 trillion current valuation of pile A will compound over the century at a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile B.

????Our first two categories enjoy maximum popularity at peaks of fear: Terror over economic collapse drives individuals to currency-based assets, most particularly U.S. obligations, and fear of currency collapse fosters movement to sterile assets such as gold. We heard "cash is king" in late 2008, just when cash should have been deployed rather than held. Similarly, we heard "cash is trash" in the early 1980s just when fixed-dollar investments were at their most attractive level in memory. On those occasions, investors who required a supportive crowd paid dearly for that comfort.

????My own preference -- and you knew this was coming -- is our third category: investment in productive assets, whether businesses, farms, or real estate. Ideally, these assets should have the ability in inflationary times to deliver output that will retain its purchasing-power value while requiring a minimum of new capital investment. Farms, real estate, and many businesses such as Coca-Cola (KO), IBM (IBM), and our own See's Candy meet that double-barreled test. Certain other companies -- think of our regulated utilities, for example -- fail it because inflation places heavy capital requirements on them. To earn more, their owners must invest more. Even so, these investments will remain superior to nonproductive or currency-based assets.

????Whether the currency a century from now is based on gold, seashells, shark teeth, or a piece of paper (as today), people will be willing to exchange a couple of minutes of their daily labor for a Coca-Cola or some See's peanut brittle. In the future the U.S. population will move more goods, consume more food, and require more living space than it does now. People will forever exchange what they produce for what others produce.

????Our country's businesses will continue to efficiently deliver goods and services wanted by our citizens. Metaphorically, these commercial "cows" will live for centuries and give ever greater quantities of "milk" to boot. Their value will be determined not by the medium of exchange but rather by their capacity to deliver milk. Proceeds from the sale of the milk will compound for the owners of the cows, just as they did during the 20th century when the Dow increased from 66 to 11,497 (and paid loads of dividends as well).

????Berkshire's goal will be to increase its ownership of first-class businesses. Our first choice will be to own them in their entirety -- but we will also be owners by way of holding sizable amounts of marketable stocks. I believe that over any extended period of time this category of investing will prove to be the runaway winner among the three we've examined. More important, it will be by far the safest.