????蘋果（Apple）承諾回購(gòu)股票，但它的股價(jià)需要漲到多高才能使得回購(gòu)計(jì)劃物有所值？這個(gè)問(wèn)題值得一問(wèn)。畢竟，蘋果原本可以將宣布用于股票回購(gòu)的100億美元花在其他很多事情上，同樣能提升股東的價(jià)值，比如，提高已宣布的99億美元年度派息（蘋果當(dāng)前的股息收益率為1.8%），甚至進(jìn)行一次性特別派息。

????為回答這個(gè)問(wèn)題，F(xiàn)ortuna Advisors的格里高里?米蘭諾進(jìn)行了一些簡(jiǎn)單的計(jì)算；Fortuna Advisors是一家為財(cái)富500強(qiáng)公司提供市值最大化建議的咨詢公司。米蘭諾認(rèn)為，股票回購(gòu)就和公司其他任何投資一樣，必須提供良好的回報(bào)，才稱得上是對(duì)資本的合理利用。換句話說(shuō)，如果一家公司按每股10美元的價(jià)格回購(gòu)股票，第二年股價(jià)漲至12美元，給股東帶來(lái)的“投資回報(bào)率”就是20%。由于企業(yè)平均資本成本為每年10%（債務(wù)和股東權(quán)益費(fèi)用），如果想增加股東利潤(rùn)，大部分公司回購(gòu)的回報(bào)率應(yīng)超過(guò)10%。

????蘋果的情況是其資本回報(bào)率異常高。這家科技巨頭的經(jīng)營(yíng)資本回報(bào)率約為40%，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于其資本成本。那么，蘋果回購(gòu)股票的最低投資回報(bào)率應(yīng)當(dāng)是多少呢？米蘭諾認(rèn)為，20%的“投資回報(bào)率”是一個(gè)合理的數(shù)字。

????如果這次回購(gòu)要達(dá)到這樣的回報(bào)率，米蘭諾稱，未來(lái)五年蘋果股價(jià)須上漲128%至1,368美元。如果是較低一些的10%回報(bào)率，蘋果股價(jià)則需要在五年內(nèi)漲至984美元。

????蘋果股價(jià)能達(dá)到這么高的水平嗎？當(dāng)今的蘋果可謂占盡天時(shí)地利人和。過(guò)去一年，該股股價(jià)上漲了82%。僅第一季度，受iPad、 iPhone銷售火爆推動(dòng)，蘋果就已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)了160億美元的自由現(xiàn)金流。但在股票市場(chǎng)，諸事難料。“股價(jià)漲到800美元就和跌到500美元一樣容易”，這樣的觀點(diǎn)也并不是完全沒(méi)有道理。

??? 如果蘋果以每股600美元的價(jià)格回購(gòu)股票，后來(lái)股價(jià)跌至每股400美元，留下來(lái)的股東就虧了——公司多付了30%的價(jià)錢。同樣，如果股價(jià)繼續(xù)以現(xiàn)有速度上漲（自去年12月以來(lái)漲了30%）達(dá)到近700美元或800美元，蘋果在什么樣的價(jià)位上回購(gòu)股票才能真正具有經(jīng)濟(jì)上的意義？

????為了讓當(dāng)前600美元的股價(jià)合理，米蘭諾計(jì)算得出，蘋果若要延續(xù)其經(jīng)濟(jì)贏利能力，需要將2016財(cái)年的銷售額增至3,000億美元。蘋果最近一個(gè)財(cái)政年度的銷售額為1,080 億美元。

????How high does Apple's stock need to rise to make its promised buyback worthwhile? It's a question worth asking. After all, Apple could have spent the $10 billion it announced in share buybacks on any number of things to grow shareholder value—a bigger dividend than the annual $9.9-billion payout announced, which currently yields 1.8%, or even a one-time special-dividend.

????To answer the question, Gregory Milano of Fortuna Advisors, which advises Fortune 500 companies on maximizing their market value, did some quick math. Milano considers buybacks to be like any other investment a company can make. Buybacks must offer a good return in order to be deemed a smart use of capital. That is, if a company buys its stock at $10 a share and it rises to $12 next year, it's earned a 20% "return on investment" for shareholders. Because the average business's capital costs run 10% a year, between debt and equity expenses, most companies should seek buybacks to return more than 10% a year if they want to build shareholder profit.

????In Apple's case, returns on capital are extraordinary. The tech giant earns around a 40% return on its operating capital, far exceeding its capital costs. So what's a good hurdle rate, or minimum rate of return, for its buyback? Milano thinks a 20% "return on investment" is fair.

????For the buybacks to deliver that return, Milano says Apple's stock price will have to rise 128% to $1,368 over the next five years. For a meager 10% buyback return, the stock needs to hit $984 in five years.

????Can the stock reach those heights? Everything is working in Apple's favor today. Shares have risen 82% over the past year. In the first quarter alone it recorded $16 billion in free cash flow on screaming hot sales of iPads and iPhones. But nothing is certain in the stock market. It's not unfair to think the stock could jump to $800 as easily as it could fall back to $500.

????If Apple buys shares at $600, and the stock later drops to $400, its remaining shareholders are penalized—the company overpaid by 30%. Likewise, if shares keeps rising at their current pace —up 30% since December—to reach levels near $700 or $800, at what point does Apple (AAPL) ask if it truly makes economic sense to buy shares at such a high level?

????To justify its current $600 stock price, Milano has calculated that Apple, continuing its level of economic profitability, needs to grow sales to $300 billion in fiscal 2016. It recorded sales of $108 in the latest fiscal year.