????在利率下降時代（我們當(dāng)前自然正處于這樣一個時期），零息債券的市場價格會很快接近到期價格——此案即100萬美元。最近，巴菲特與Protégé合購的債券已價值約93萬美元，這意味著過去四年來，該債券已較買入價漲了45%。雖然這樣的回報率比不上投資蘋果公司（Apple）的股票，但在股市整體低迷時期，這樣的回報已經(jīng)非?？捎^。

????參與打賭的雙方——巴菲特和Protégé合伙人泰德?塞迪斯都很清楚，在該賭約剩下的近6年時間里，零息債券在當(dāng)前價格之上的回報將相當(dāng)有限。債券的到期價值100萬美元將是封頂?shù)幕貓?。坐等到期的想法自然沒有吸引力，塞迪斯表示：“我們預(yù)計年這筆投資的回報率比1%高不了多少?！?/p>

????因此，幾周前雙方開始同恒金基金會協(xié)商，打算出售這筆零息債券，所得將另行投資，希望等賭約到期時可向選中慈善機(jī)構(gòu)提供超過100萬美元的資金。第一個計劃是將所得的一半投資于巴菲特的伯克希爾哈撒韋公司（Berkshire Hathaway），另一半投資Protégé管理的一支“基金中的基金”（一直以來，人們都覺得那會是Protégé選擇用于打賭的5支基金中的某一支）。但這個計劃未獲通過，因為它將要求恒金基金會成為那支基金的合作伙伴，由于證券法的種種繁瑣規(guī)定，恒金基金會并不符合“合格購買人”的定義。

????因此，后來有了第二個計劃，并已付諸實施。該計劃要求出售上述債券，所得全部投資伯克希爾哈撒韋股票。

????如果情況糟糕，等到2017年12月31日該賭約到期時，現(xiàn)在購入伯克希爾股票的93萬美元屆時可能達(dá)不到100萬美元。為此，巴菲特已允諾，恒金基金會可在賭約到期時將這些股票“賣給”他（或他的公司）獲得100萬美元。換言之，100萬美元是慈善機(jī)構(gòu)能獲得的最低捐獻(xiàn)，投資伯克希爾股票則有望提供更多資金。

????與此同時，烏龜和野兔面對的是2012年的有利市場。迄今看來，等到今年年底，也就是十年之賭賽程中段時，其中一方、甚至雙方都有望出現(xiàn)累計正回報——真是峰回路轉(zhuǎn)??！

????本文作者是《財富》雜志的資深編輯卡羅爾?盧米斯，她是沃倫?巴菲特的老朋友，也是伯克希爾哈撒韋公司的股東之一。并為沃倫?巴菲特致股東公開信擔(dān)任編輯工作。

????譯者：早稻米

????In a period of declining interest rates, which we certainly have had, what happens to a zero-coupon bond is that its market price races toward the maturity value -- $1 million in this case. Recently, the value of the Buffett-Protégé bond was about $930,000, which means that in just over four years it is up 45% from the purchase price. That doesn't match the payoff from Apple (AAPL), but it's a heck of a run during a time when the general stock market was a dog.

????Both Buffett and Ted Seides, the Protégé partner who engineered the 10-year-bet, are well aware that the returns to be earned by the zero-coupon bond from its price today can be no better than meager for the nearly six years left in the bet. That's because the ceiling is the bond's maturity value of $1 million. The view is definitely unappealing, says Seides: "We're looking at annual returns that won't be much better than 1%."

????So the two sides began a few weeks ago to talk to the Long Now Foundation about its selling the zero-coupon bond and putting the proceeds into an investment that putatively could deliver the winning charity more than $1 million when the bet winds up. The first plan discussed was for half of the proceeds to be invested in Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA), and the other half to be invested in a fund of funds that Protégé runs (and that has always been assumed to be one of the five funds of funds that Protégé picked for the bet). But that plan died because it would have required Long Now to become a partner in the fund and, for complex reasons arising from the securities laws, it did not meet the definition of a "qualified purchaser."

????So a second plan was devised and is now going forward. It calls for the bond to be sold and the total proceeds to be invested in Berkshire Hathaway stock.

????Naturally, some set of dire circumstances could make the roughly $930,000 put into Berkshire worth less than $1 million at the bet's conclusion on December 31, 2017. So Buffett has guaranteed $1 million by giving Long Now the right at the bet's conclusion to "put" the stock to him (or his estate) in exchange for that amount. In other words, $1 million becomes the floor for the winning charity, with the Berkshire investment establishing the prospect for more.

????Meanwhile, the tortoise and the hare are dealing with the good market of 2012, which so far is suggesting that one or both might show -- how radical! -- a cumulative profit when the halfway mark in the bet is reached at the end of this year.

????FORTUNE senior editor-at-large Carol Loomis, who wrote this article, is a longtime friend of Warren Buffett's, a Berkshire Hathaway shareholder, and editor of his annual letter to shareholders.