????對(duì)于伯克希爾-哈撒韋（Berkshire Hathaway）而言，沃倫?巴菲特的價(jià)值已大不如前。

????這位傳奇的首席執(zhí)行官宣布罹患早期前列腺癌之后的一天，伯克希爾的股價(jià)于周三小幅下跌約1%。巴菲特宣稱，他的病情“遠(yuǎn)未危及生命”，只是需要放慢節(jié)奏。（從7月中旬開(kāi)始需要接受為期兩個(gè)月的放射性治療，屆時(shí)，他將無(wú)法旅行。）當(dāng)然，股價(jià)僅僅只是出現(xiàn)了小幅下跌，部分原因在于幾乎沒(méi)人認(rèn)為巴菲特會(huì)很快離開(kāi)伯克希爾。但股價(jià)反應(yīng)不強(qiáng)烈，也引發(fā)了這樣一個(gè)問(wèn)題：目前投資者怎么看待這位81歲高齡的首席執(zhí)行官對(duì)于伯克希爾和其股價(jià)的價(jià)值？答案或許是大不如前。

????十年前，投資者們常常談到巴菲特溢價(jià)。如今這種溢價(jià)看來(lái)已差不多消失殆盡。伯克希爾當(dāng)前股價(jià)對(duì)應(yīng)的市凈率僅1.2倍，接近1998年時(shí)的一半。

????伯克希爾股票估值的下降某種程度上與巴菲特的年齡有關(guān)。但給這只股票帶來(lái)壓力的還有公司接班人的問(wèn)題：巴菲特之后，誰(shuí)將執(zhí)掌伯克希爾仍不明朗。最多也就是巴菲特曾經(jīng)說(shuō)過(guò)的，可能會(huì)把他的工作分成4、5個(gè)職位。伯克希爾早已推出托德?康布斯和泰德?韋斯切勒這兩位投資經(jīng)理，并且聲稱，可能會(huì)在這兩人之外再增加一名投資經(jīng)理。他們將負(fù)責(zé)打理伯克希爾的投資業(yè)務(wù)，但目前尚不清楚伯克希爾的投資組合將如何劃分。

????巴菲特也曾說(shuō)過(guò)，他計(jì)劃另外任命一名接班人，負(fù)責(zé)管理美國(guó)鐵路運(yùn)營(yíng)商Burlington Northern以及多年來(lái)伯克希爾收購(gòu)的其他一大批公司，包括冰激凌連鎖店冰雪皇后（Dairy Queen）、涂料公司本杰明摩爾（Benjamin Moore）等等。巴菲特稱，他已經(jīng)選定了這名接班人，伯克希爾董事會(huì)對(duì)這個(gè)人也知根知底。據(jù)信巴菲特心中的人選可能是伯克希爾下屬某家公司的管理者。這些管理者中可能性最大的是現(xiàn)年59歲的阿吉特?簡(jiǎn)，他已掌管伯克希爾最大的保險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)長(zhǎng)達(dá)25年。但如果巴菲特想選年輕一些的接班人，那么很可能是現(xiàn)年48歲的格雷格?阿貝爾，他掌管著伯克希爾旗下的中美能源（MidAmerican Energy），是伯克希爾最年輕的高管之一。但Burlington Northern的負(fù)責(zé)人、現(xiàn)年50歲的麥特?羅斯如果入選，可能也合情合理，因?yàn)樗w現(xiàn)了伯克希爾從保險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)的轉(zhuǎn)型。但奇怪的是，巴菲特稱，他選定的這個(gè)人本人并不知情。因此，也可能這個(gè)人會(huì)在巴菲特宣布消息之前離開(kāi)伯克希爾，甚至可能根本不愿意接受這份工作。

????除此之外，巴菲特表示，他希望讓他的兒子霍華德?lián)尾讼柖麻L(zhǎng)，目前董事長(zhǎng)一職仍由沃倫?巴菲特?fù)?dān)任?；羧A德不會(huì)在伯克希爾承擔(dān)日常職務(wù)。這些人將如何共事？巴菲特還沒(méi)有說(shuō)明。他們能合得來(lái)嗎？天知道。

????但巴菲特溢價(jià)的消失至少部分與伯克希爾的一些變化有關(guān)。過(guò)去，伯克希爾的價(jià)值很大程度上與保險(xiǎn)公司產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金以及巴菲特如何使用這些現(xiàn)金進(jìn)行投資聯(lián)系在一起。如今，伯克希爾賺的錢很多都來(lái)自于其經(jīng)營(yíng)的公司。巴菲特仍在用這些錢進(jìn)行投資，但他對(duì)部分投資盈利的依賴已經(jīng)不如從前。

????Warren Buffett, it appears, is worth less than he used to be.

????Shares of Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) fell slightly, down about 1%, on Wednesday, a day after the company's legendary CEO announced he has Stage 1 prostate cancer. Buffett said his condition is "not remotely life-threatening" and would barely slow him down. (He won't be able to travel, while getting radiation treatment, for two months starting in mid-July.) Surely, part of the small drop has to do with the fact that few think Buffett is going anywhere soon. Nonetheless, the muted reaction of Berkshire's shares raise the question of just what investors think the 81-year-old CEO is worth to the company and its shares. The answer might be a lot less than they used to.

????A decade or so ago, investors used to talk about the Buffett premium. That appears to have mostly eroded. Berkshire's shares trade for 1.2 times the book value of the company. That's nearly half the 2.3 price-to-book value they fetched back in 1998.

????Part of Berkshire's drop in value certainly has to do with Buffett's age. But also weighing on the stock is the fact that it's not clear who would run Berkshire when Buffett leaves. The best guess from what Buffett has said in the past is that he envisions that his job would be split into four, possible five, positions. Berkshire has already brought on investment managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. And the company has said it might add another manager to the mix. That would take care of the investing side, though it's not clear how the portfolio would be divided.

????Buffett has also said that he plans to name another successor who will manage Burlington Northern and the company's many other acquisitions it has made over the years, which includes ice cream chain Dairy Queen, paint company Benjamin Moore and many others. Buffett says he has picked the successor and it's someone who Berkshire's board of directors knows very well. It's assumed that the person Buffett has in mind is someone who already runs a company owned by Berkshire. Of those, the most likely candidate is probably Ajit Jain, 59, who has run Berkshire's largest insurance division for 25 years. But if Buffett is going for youth he might go for Greg Abel, 48, who runs Berkshire's MidAmerican Energy and is one of Berkshire's youngest top executives. But Matt Rose, 50, who is the head of Burlington Northern, might make the most sense, reflecting Berkshire's transformation from an insurance business. But oddly, Buffett says the person who he has picked doesn't know it. So it's still possible the person could leave the company before Buffett does, or, perhaps, not even want the job.

????On top of that Buffett has said that he would like his son, Howard, to become the chairman of Berkshire, a title that Buffett, Warren that is, also now holds. Howard wouldn't have a day-to-day role at the company. How would all these people work together? Buffett hasn't said. Would they even get along? Who knows.

????But at least some of the erosion of Buffett premium has to do with changes at Berkshire. A large part of the value of the company always had to do with the cash that was generated by the insurance companies and how Buffett invested that cash. But the company now makes a large part of its money from its operating companies. Buffett still invests that money, but he is relied on less to make that money grow than he used to be.