????摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）不再看好“歐豬五國(guó)”（PIIGS，即歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)最嚴(yán)重的五個(gè)國(guó)家——葡萄牙、愛爾蘭、意大利、希臘和西班牙）。

????從截至一季度末的數(shù)據(jù)看，如果“歐豬五國(guó)”的公債價(jià)格下跌，摩根士丹利將獲利，因?yàn)樗旧腺€定歐洲這五個(gè)最弱的經(jīng)濟(jì)體其財(cái)政狀況將越來越糟。摩根士丹利最大的空頭敞口是葡萄牙，但如果意大利或西班牙的公債價(jià)格下跌，它也會(huì)獲益。

????總的來說，這樣的“敞口”相比摩根士丹利的公司規(guī)模和其他倉位不是特別大。而且，從截至一季度末的數(shù)據(jù)看，如果法國(guó)和其他歐洲國(guó)家的公債價(jià)格下跌，摩根士丹利也可能虧錢。分析師和投資者們表示，他們并不是很關(guān)注摩根士丹利看空葡萄牙和其他歐洲弱國(guó)，也不認(rèn)為這是摩根士丹利的一大投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)或利潤(rùn)來源。

????但做空所謂的“歐洲五國(guó)”仍有顯著意義，這反映了摩根士丹利對(duì)歐洲看法的轉(zhuǎn)變。去年9月，由于市場(chǎng)擔(dān)心如果歐洲財(cái)政狀況惡化，摩根士丹利可能損失幾百億美元，摩根士丹利股價(jià)大跌。而且，轉(zhuǎn)變也相對(duì)較快。2011年底，摩根士丹利還有幾十億美元的敞口，賭定葡萄牙和其他國(guó)家政府的財(cái)政狀況將改善。上述披露詳見4月19日摩根士丹利發(fā)布的一季報(bào)；摩根士丹利的一季報(bào)好于預(yù)期。

????這部分“敞口”包含了一系列復(fù)雜的交易，包括直接持有的公債、摩根士丹利與對(duì)手的交易敞口，信用違約掉期（CDS）等衍生品。摩根士丹利看來已賣出逾10億美元的CDS合約，基本上是債券保險(xiǎn)——如果葡萄牙和其他所謂歐元區(qū)邊緣國(guó)家的公債出現(xiàn)違約，摩根士丹利必須予以賠付。過去一個(gè)月，摩根士丹利直接看空這些國(guó)家的敞口也增加了一倍多。而且，摩根士丹利似乎還顯著減少了與這些外國(guó)政府的交易。

????總體而言，摩根士丹利看空歐元區(qū)邊緣國(guó)家的敞口有6.18億美元，其中超過一半是針對(duì)葡萄牙。根據(jù)摩根士丹利財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表中的注釋，摩根士丹利1月初顯著減少了意大利敞口。摩根士丹利發(fā)言人拒絕置評(píng)。

????目前尚不清楚這些敞口如今表現(xiàn)如何。葡萄牙公債繼年初大跌后，目前價(jià)格已差不多回到原先水平。而且，看起來摩根士丹利也不是完全回避歐洲。該行目前有40億美元的法國(guó)敞口，較三個(gè)月前增加了一倍多。

????譯者：早稻米

????Morgan Stanley is no "long"-er being PIIGy.

????As of the end of the first quarter, Morgan (MS) was positioned to profit if the government debt of Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain fell in value, essentially betting that financial condition in Europe's weakest nations is set to get worse. Morgan's biggest "bet" is against Portugal. But it would also benefit if prices of the government debt of Italy or Spain fell as well.

????Overall, the "bet" isn't particularly large compared to the size of the firm and its other positions. And it appears Morgan could lose money if the debt of France and other European nations drops in value. Analysts and investors say they aren't focused on bet against Portugal and the other weaker European nations as a major risk, or source of profits, for the firm.

????But the bet against the so-called PIIG nations is significant because it appears to be a shift for Morgan in its thinking on Europe. Back in September, shares of Morgan plunged on fears that it would lose tens of billions of dollars if the financial condition of Europe worsened. What's more, it's a relatively rapid shift. As recently as the end of 2011, Morgan Stanley had billions of dollars riding on the fact that he financial condition of the governments of Portugal and others would improve. The disclosure came today as part of the announcement of Morgan's first quarter earnings, which were better than expected.

????The "bet" is a series of complex transactions including direct holdings of government bet, exposure from transactions the firm has made with counterparties and derivatives such as credit default swaps. Morgan appears to have sold just over a $1 billion in CDS contracts, essentially bond insurance that the firm would have to pay out in the case of a default, against the debts of Portugal and the other so-called Euro peripherals. The firm has also more than doubled its direct bet against the debts of the countries in the past month. What's more, the company seems to have significantly cut back its trading with those foreign governments.

????Overall, Morgan has $618 million bet against the Euro peripherals. More than half of the bet is against Portugal. According to a note in its financial statements, Morgan Stanley significantly reduced its exposure to Italy in early January. A Morgan spokesperson declined to comment.

????It's not clear how well the bets are doing. Portugal bonds, after plunging in value early in the year, have nearly recovered all of their losses. What's more, it appears Morgan isn't completely shying away from Europe. The bank now has a $4 billion exposure to France, more than double what it had three months ago.