????上周末的法國(guó)和希臘大選所引發(fā)的信任危機(jī)，可能最終會(huì)扼殺歐元，并把歐洲大陸推入更深的衰退?？赡芩簹惹暗膮f(xié)議？可能再度變得大手大腳？這些可不是眼下華爾街或市場(chǎng)希望聽(tīng)到的，而且只會(huì)促使更多的資本流出歐元區(qū)。

????所有這些不確定性都證明我們需要一個(gè)更加實(shí)實(shí)在在的方案來(lái)解決歐元危機(jī)，需要一個(gè)更緊密的經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)盟——遺憾的是，這似乎越來(lái)越渺茫。在可能達(dá)成一個(gè)長(zhǎng)期方案前, 歐元區(qū)需要重新樹(shù)立市場(chǎng)的信心。華爾街期待這兩個(gè)新政府能宣稱，至少會(huì)在前任政府達(dá)成的協(xié)議框架下開(kāi)展工作，努力維護(hù)歐元。在此基礎(chǔ)上，才可以探討發(fā)行“歐元債券”和在歐元區(qū)內(nèi)進(jìn)行財(cái)富轉(zhuǎn)移。

????現(xiàn)在，市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)消化和接受了現(xiàn)實(shí)：法國(guó)下屆總統(tǒng)將來(lái)自社會(huì)黨，而希臘政治體系已陷入一片混亂。雖然前者在意料之中，后者卻有些令人意外。希臘人民在極度沮喪（這完全可以理解）的心情下進(jìn)行了大選投票，沒(méi)有一個(gè)傳統(tǒng)政黨獲得足夠組閣的議會(huì)多數(shù)席位。

????但希臘政治體系的混亂局面終將消退。一旦明確沒(méi)有一家政黨能牽頭湊出一個(gè)取得多數(shù)票的政治聯(lián)盟，希臘很可能在6月10日再次投票。因此，上周末的選舉在某種意義上可視為第一輪投票，希臘人民情緒化而非策略性的投票。

????希臘兩大傳統(tǒng)政黨——中右翼新民主黨（New Democracy）和中左翼泛希臘社會(huì)主義運(yùn)動(dòng)（PASOK）最可能在下一輪選舉中獲得足夠的選票進(jìn)行聯(lián)合組閣，可能是同一個(gè)意識(shí)形態(tài)類似的小黨派，也可能是兩大黨聯(lián)合。兩黨都表示，他們將致力于改變希臘的救助協(xié)議，讓緊縮措施變得更為溫和，同時(shí)將致力于維護(hù)歐元，因此他們很可能采取必要的措施讓希臘留在歐元區(qū)內(nèi)。

????在法國(guó)，弗朗索瓦?奧朗德正準(zhǔn)備打開(kāi)社會(huì)主義之門。上次，法國(guó)社會(huì)黨總統(tǒng)入住愛(ài)麗舍宮已是十七年前的事了。當(dāng)時(shí)還有人擔(dān)心，弗朗索瓦?密特朗總統(tǒng)可能會(huì)在他的就職典禮上邀請(qǐng)?zhí)K聯(lián)軍隊(duì)列隊(duì)穿越巴黎的大街。當(dāng)然，這樣的事情根本沒(méi)有發(fā)生，法國(guó)依然是一個(gè)響當(dāng)當(dāng)?shù)淖杂墒袌?chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體。

????奧朗德相信，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是將法國(guó)拖出當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)泥潭的唯一途徑。這點(diǎn)他說(shuō)得很對(duì)。但他同時(shí)相信要實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，只能通過(guò)大規(guī)模的政府支出，取消（如果不是全部取消）法國(guó)總統(tǒng)薩科奇與歐盟（European Union）協(xié)定的“財(cái)政條約”（Fiscal Compact）中削減債務(wù)的緊縮措施。

????The elections in France and Greece over the weekend have created a crisis of confidence that could eventually drown the euro and push the continent into a deeper recession. Talk of tearing up past agreements and a return to profligate spending is not what Wall Street and the markets need to hear right now and will simply serve to encourage further capital flight out of the eurozone.

????All this uncertainty confirms that a more concrete solution to the euro crisis is needed, one that involves a much tighter economic union -- something that regrettably looks increasingly untenable. But before a permanent solution could ever possibly take root, market confidence needs to be restored to the eurozone. Wall Street is looking for the new governments to say that they will at the very least work within the framework of the agreements set up by their predecessors and that they are committed to the euro. After that, there can be talk of issuing "eurobonds" and wealth transfers within the zone.

????By now the markets have digested the reality that France's next president will be from the Socialist party and that Greece's political system has fallen into total chaos. While the former was expected, the latter was a bit of a surprise. The Greek people voted out of pure frustration (which is totally understandable), giving none of the traditional political parties enough of a majority in parliament to form a government.

????But the chaos in the Greek political system will eventually subside. Greeks will most likely take to the polls again on June 10th once it becomes clear that none of them can cobble up a winning coalition. The election this past weekend will therefore be looked at as some sort of first round vote in which people vote emotionally as opposed to strategically.

????The two traditional parties, the center-right New Democracy party and the center-left PASOK party, will most likely pick up enough votes in the next election to form a coalition government, either with a smaller party with a similar ideological leanings or with each other. While both have said they would seek changes to the country's bailout agreement in order to tone down required austerity programs, both are committed to the euro, so they will probably do what is needed to stay in the club.

????Over in France, Francois Hollande is getting ready to open up a can of socialism. It has been seventeen years since a Socialist party president resided in the Elysee Palace. Back then there were fears that the president, Francois Mitterrand, would invite the Soviet Army to parade down the boulevards of Paris during his inauguration. Of course, nothing of the sort occurred, and France remained a strong free market economy.

????Hollande believes that economic growth is the only way to get his country out of its current economic slump. He is correct on that point. But he also believes that growth can only be achieved through massive government spending and the cancelation of most, if not all, of the debt-cutting austerity measures that French President Sarkozy had agreed to in the "Fiscal Compact" with the European Union.