????預(yù)計(jì)Facebook可能在今天將上市，股價(jià)可能達(dá)到招股要約的上限，定為每股38美元。（最新消息證實(shí)的確如此）。屆時(shí)，公司的市值將達(dá)到1,040億美元，是其最大的在線廣告競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手谷歌公司（Google）當(dāng)前市值的一半左右。鑒于這家社交媒體大型公司在流行文化領(lǐng)域的地位，離譜的高估值一直都在人們的預(yù)料之中，但1,040億美元的估值依然是個(gè)瘋狂的數(shù)字。公司未來(lái)的盈利潛力并不穩(wěn)定，其唯一的產(chǎn)品似乎也已經(jīng)接近成熟。Facebook進(jìn)行IPO的目的并非為了募集資金開(kāi)發(fā)更優(yōu)異的產(chǎn)品，而是為了在市值最高時(shí)套現(xiàn)。因此，投資者應(yīng)該謹(jǐn)慎選擇。

????Facebook的發(fā)行文件及其長(zhǎng)約30分鐘的視頻演示聽(tīng)起來(lái)“感覺(jué)良好”，但實(shí)際上都重當(dāng)前輕未來(lái)。比如在視頻中，“未來(lái)”部分只有幾分鐘，而且公司對(duì)于未來(lái)的盈利和發(fā)展規(guī)劃含糊其辭。雖然他們也表示，將手機(jī)平臺(tái)貨幣化是Facebook發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵，但請(qǐng)注意，面對(duì)問(wèn)題，他們除了“燒錢”，希望得到好的結(jié)果之外，并沒(méi)有清晰的思路。

????公司資金的一大部分將源自周五IPO所募得的184億美元，但條件是公司出售所有超額配售權(quán)。不過(guò)，IPO募得的資金中，大部分并沒(méi)有進(jìn)入Facebook的戶頭，而是流進(jìn)了早期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資機(jī)構(gòu)的腰包。多年以來(lái)，早期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資機(jī)構(gòu)一直在請(qǐng)求、甚至乞求馬克?扎克伯格將公司上市。

????昨天，就在公司上市前一分鐘，筆者了解到，F(xiàn)acebook幾個(gè)最大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資機(jī)構(gòu)紛紛決定增加出售股票的比例。周三公布的資料顯示，可用于IPO的股份數(shù)量從3.374億股增加到4.312億股，增加了25%。其中老虎環(huán)球基金（Tiger Global Management）從最初出售300萬(wàn)股增加到2,300萬(wàn)股，而高盛（Goldman Sachs）則從出售1,320萬(wàn)股增加到2,870萬(wàn)股，成為變化最大的兩家著名風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資機(jī)構(gòu)。Facebook的早期投資者不僅謀求套現(xiàn)，而且希望立刻脫身。這可不是什么好消息。

????但這又能怨誰(shuí)呢？公司股價(jià)已經(jīng)達(dá)到如此高度，此時(shí)還不抽身，除非他們腦子有問(wèn)題。如果Facebook的估值最終達(dá)到1,040億美元，則其交易價(jià)值將是2011年?duì)I業(yè)收入的28倍，而市盈率達(dá)到104倍。這意味著，公司盈利在近期需要出現(xiàn)拋物線式增長(zhǎng)。而這幾乎是不可能完成的任務(wù)。

????比如，與谷歌公司對(duì)比。目前，谷歌是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)廣告領(lǐng)域的王者，或許也是Facebook最大的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。2004年，谷歌上市時(shí)，其估值是往績(jī)營(yíng)收的16倍，往績(jī)市盈率為218倍。之后，谷歌強(qiáng)勢(shì)增長(zhǎng)證明了公司估值合理，而Facebook高達(dá)104倍的市盈率則意味著，投資者相信，這家公司的增長(zhǎng)速度將達(dá)到當(dāng)年谷歌增長(zhǎng)速度的一半。目前，谷歌的市盈率為18倍，這表示，在近期，F(xiàn)acebook要擁有谷歌五倍左右的增長(zhǎng)潛力。

????Facebook will probably price today at the top of its offer range at $38 a share. (Update: That's exactly what happened.) That would value the company at around $104 billion – roughly half the current value of its biggest rival in the online ad space, Google. While a lofty and unjustifiably high valuation for the social media giant had been expected given its position in popular culture, a $104 billion valuation is borderline bonkers. The company's future earnings potential is shaky and its only real product appears to be close to maturity. Facebook's IPO isn't about raising money to nurture an amazing product -- it's about cashing out at the peak. Investors should "like" with caution.

????Facebook's offering documents and its 30-minute "feel-good" video presentation is heavy on the present and light on the future. In the video, for example, the section labeled "The Future" lasts only a couple of minutes and the company is vague about how they plan to grow it profitably. They rightly say that monetizing its mobile platform is the key to Facebook's growth, but also note that they have pretty much no idea what to do about it except throw a bunch of money at the problem and hope something great happens.

????A good chunk of that money will come from the $18.4 billion in proceeds Facebook could raise in the IPO on Friday, provided that the whole overallotment is sold. But the majority of the cash raised won't be going to Facebook -- it goes to its early venture investors who have been begging and pleading with Mark Zuckerberg, the founder of Facebook, to take the company public for years now.

????Just yesterday, at what is basically the last minute for this offering, we learned that some of Facebook's biggest venture investors were putting up more of their shares for sale than originally planned. The updated filing on Wednesday saw the number of shares available for the IPO jump from 337.4 million to 431.2 million, a nearly 25% increase. The two most notable shifts came from Tiger Global Management, which went from selling 3 million shares to 23 million shares, and Goldman Sachs (GS), which went from selling 13.2 million to 28.7 million. These early investors in Facebook don't just want to cash out, they want to run away. That's not a good sign.

????But who could blame them? At such a high valuation they would be crazy not to get out now. If Facebook ends up valued at $104 billion, it would trade at 28 times its 2011 revenue and 104 times earnings. That implies that it will see parabolic growth in earnings in the near future. That seems highly unlikely.

????For comparison, let's look at Google (GOOG), which is currently the king of internet advertising and probably Facebook's biggest competitor. When it went public in 2004, Google was valued at 16 times its trailing revenue and 218 times its trailing earnings. At its implied valuation of 104 times earnings, that means investors today should believe that Facebook will grow at roughly half the rate that Google did when it first came out of the gates to justify its valuation. Google currently trades at 18 times earnings, which implies that Facebook should have roughly five times the growth potential than Google will have in the near future.