????從希臘爭吵不休的各黨派到歐洲央行官員，每個人都在表達這樣的信念：希臘會留在歐元區(qū)內(nèi)。這樣的表態(tài)并不奇怪，因為光是談?wù)勗鯓映晒ν顺?，也會散播恐慌情緒，導(dǎo)致退出最終不可避免。但恐慌情緒早已存在。希臘可能幾周內(nèi)（如果不是幾天內(nèi)）就會退出歐元區(qū)。

????最緊迫的問題并不是希臘目前四分五裂的議會，雖然議會意見分歧可能導(dǎo)致國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）和歐盟委員會（European Community）要求推行的改革措施難以落實，進而影響到下一筆救助款項到位。最最緊迫的是災(zāi)難性的銀行擠兌。“一年來，希臘人一直都在把希臘銀行里的存款轉(zhuǎn)至海外銀行?！敝ゼ痈绱髮W(xué)（University of Chicago）國際經(jīng)濟學(xué)退休教授羅伯特?阿里布表示，“如今，資金流出已達到頂點。”的確如此，僅周一一天，從希臘銀行流出的資金就高達近9億美元。

????資本外逃導(dǎo)致儲蓄銳減，令按揭再融資和小企業(yè)貸款供應(yīng)緊張，引發(fā)全面的信貸危機。希臘人還特別不愿意把歐元花在汽車、外出就餐或其他事情上，因為他們估計這些歐元在未來幾周或幾個月能在超市和汽車用品店買到更多東西。壓縮消費，進一步損傷經(jīng)濟。

????希臘的退出是絕對必要的。“以歐元計價，希臘的價格和成本都太高了，導(dǎo)致其無法在國際市場上展開競爭。”阿里布說，“所有這些指向錯誤的救助方案給希臘人帶來的痛苦要遠遠超出他們通過降低價格或成本獲得的好處。”阿里布認為，政治僵局實際上是件好事，因為這會加速廢止嚴重高估的貨幣，這正是讓希臘恢復(fù)增長所必需的。

????棄用歐元、改回本幣的具體做法可以預(yù)見。將來不遠的一天，假設(shè)是周五下午晚些時候，希臘政府宣布所有銀行接下來一周關(guān)門歇業(yè)。周一，議會投票通過一項緊急法案，指定固定兌換匯率，假設(shè)1德拉克馬（希臘加入歐元區(qū)之前的貨幣）兌換1歐元。從周一起，所有企業(yè)和個人在希臘銀行的存款都改為德拉克馬計價。

????德拉克馬的幣值會下跌，可能很快希臘民眾就需要至少1.5德拉克馬來換1歐元。擁有15,000歐元的存款賬戶變成了15,000德拉克馬。但這些德拉克馬很快就只能換回10,000歐元。這意味著33%的貶值?！斑@一貶值幅度在退出共同貨幣體系的國家中處于較低水平，”卡內(nèi)基研究院（Carnegie Endowment）的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家尤里?達杜什表示。

????接下來是關(guān)鍵，頂尖經(jīng)濟學(xué)家們對于希臘退出歐元后的前景也分歧嚴重。當(dāng)然，這不是古希臘悲劇作家埃斯庫羅斯或古希臘喜劇作家阿里斯托芬的劇作，觀眾早已知道結(jié)局。雅典大學(xué)（University of Athens）的亞尼斯?瓦魯法科斯預(yù)計這是一場希臘悲劇，銀行擠兌后出現(xiàn)德拉克馬擠兌。希臘人拿到德拉克馬后就會到自動存款機上存入，再將德拉克馬兌換成人們私藏在冰箱里的歐元，”瓦魯法科斯說。他預(yù)計德拉克馬兌其他貨幣將繼續(xù)下跌，希臘人將繼續(xù)擠兌，造成新一輪惡性通貨膨脹。

????Everyone from Greece's squabbling political parties to Europe's central bankers are expressing faith that Greece will remain in the Euro. That's not surprising, since simply talking about how to manage an exit would spread panic, making the exit inevitable. But the panic is already here. Greece's departure from the Euro could happen within a couple of weeks, if not a few days.

????The pressing problem isn't a splintered legislature that may balk at delivering the reforms that the IMF and European Community are demanding in exchange for the next tranche of bailout money. It's a disastrous, old-fashioned run-on-the bank. "For a year, Greeks have been sending their savings from Greek banks to foreign banks," says Robert Aliber, retired professor of international economics from the University of Chicago. "Now, the flood has reached a crescendo." Indeed on Monday alone, outflows from the Greek banks reached almost $900 million.

????The flight of capital is sapping the deposits needed to refinance mortgages and small business loans, causing a full-blown credit crisis. Greeks are also extremely reluctant to spend their Euros on cars, dining or anything else, since they reckon those Euros will buy more at the supermarkets and auto lots in the weeks or months ahead. The disappearing consumer is further crippling the economy.

????Greece's exit is absolutely necessary. "Its prices and costs are far too high under the Euro, so it just cannot compete on international markets," says Aliber. "The Greeks have suffered far more through all these misguided bailouts than they've gained by lowering prices or costs." The political gridlock, argues Aliber, is actually a good thing because it will hasten abandoning a disastrously overvalued currency, just what's needed to get Greece growing again.

????The mechanics of shelving the Euro for its own currency are pretty predictable. One day soon, imagine it's late on a Friday afternoon, the Greek government will declare all banks closed for the following week. By Monday, the legislature will vote an emergency law that designates a fixed exchange rate of, say, 1 drachma –– the Greek pre-Euro currency –– for each Euro. By Monday, all corporate and personal savings in Greek banks will be denominated in drachma.

????The drachma will tumble in value, so that almost immediately, Greek consumers will need at least 1.5 Drachma to buy one Euro. A savings account that held 15,000 euros is now 15,000 Drachma. But those drachmas will soon fetch just 10,000 Euros. That's a "devaluation" of 33%. "That number is the low-end of the range for countries that exit a common currency," says Uri Dadush, an economist at the Carnegie Endowment.

????What happens next is the pivotal issue, and top economists disagree strongly on Greece's post-Euro future. To be sure, this isn't a play by Aeschylus or Aristophanes where the audience knows the finale. Yanis Varoufakis of the University of Athens foresees a Greek tragedy in which a run on the banks is followed by a run on the drachma. "Greeks paid in drachma will go to the ATM then immediately exchange their drachma for Euros people have stashed in their freezers," says Varoufakis. He thinks that the drachma will keep plunging against foreign currencies, and Greeks will keep bailing, causing a new crisis of hyperinflation.